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WTA Roland Garros Day 2 Preview: Venus, Sharapova

May 24th 2015

In addition to the start of Maria Sharapova’s attempt to defend her Roland Garros title, Monday at the French Open will feature an all-American matchup between women at opposite ends of their careers.

Venus Williams

Venus Williams versus Sloane Stephens

Most are familiar with the phrase “the luck of the draw.”  And though it is the physical endurance, mental strength, and outright talent that have the most impact on a player's success at a tournament, that so-called “luck of the draw” does play a part to varying degrees.  Venus Williams and Sloane Stephens both arrived in Paris with optimism.  Both have reasons to expect that they can put together a deep run.  But that pesky luck of the draw has pitted them against each other in the opening round. Unfortunately for one of them, their Roland Garros journey will end at the first hurdle.

For former No. 1 Williams, 2015 has begun as one of her better seasons in recent memory.  She won the title in Auckland to kick off the year, reached the semifinals of Doha, and put in a respectable quarterfinal finish in Miami.  Her results on the clay have not been quite up to par with the beginning of her year, but she is a former finalist at Roland Garros.  She also went deep at this year's Australian Open and has seen her ranking rise to No. 15, so she has more than proven that she is still capable of playing top-notch tennis and garnering the big wins.

Young gun Stephens is on the opposite end of the career spectrum from Williams, but like her fellow American, she finds herself having to prove that she is still capable of playing elite tennis.  A few years ago, she was thought by many to not only be the future face of American tennis, but one of the rising stars of the WTA.  The young American struggled with the new pressures and expectations, however, and came into this year's edition of Roland Garros ranked outside the top 40.  She has had an inconsistent 2015 thus far, losing her opening match at the Australian Open but putting in respectable efforts at Indian Wells and Miami.  Her lead-up to Roland Garros was also spotty, although with her run to the semifinals of Strasbourg last week, she may have found her clay-court game just in time.

Sloane Stephens

The confidence that Stephens will have taken away from her run last week could be one of the biggest difference-makers in this match, since in terms of their respective games, there is not a lot to choose between the two.  Williams is arguably slightly quicker off the mark, but Stephens is the player more apt to hold up over the course of a long match.  Whereas Williams has more firepower off of her groundstrokes and serve, it is Stephens who will probably prove the more consistent from the baseline and on the second serve. 

They have never met before, so there is no shared history.  Williams has been playing the better overall tennis, as evidenced by her higher ranking, and she has more experience at this level.  But Stephens has recently been playing the better brand of tennis, and she has reached the second week in Paris the last three years.  If ever there were a time and place where Stephens would like to face Williams, it is here and now.

Maria Sharapova versus Kaia Kanepi

Majors cannot be won in the first round.  But they can be lost, and they can set a tone.  In addition to getting the victory, favorites are looking to get off the court quickly to conserve energy in those early rounds and to make a statement.  Defending champion Maria Sharapova comes into Roland Garros as the No. 2 seed behind Serena Williams, and when she takes to the court in her opening match against Kaia Kanepi, she will be looking to send a message to the rest of the field that she is back in top form and ready to win her third title in the French capital.

Maria Sharapova

It is not surprising that there are many people who like Sharapova's odds of repeating as champion at Roland Garros, starting with the fact that she is in the opposite half of the draw from Williams thanks to her stellar play in Rome assuring her the second seed in Paris.  The Russian has also already put forth some great efforts in 2015, including her title in Brisbane and finalist appearance in Melbourne.  Her results were lackluster throughout March and into early May, with matters further complicated by a minor injury, but she righted the ship in the nick of time with her title run in Rome.  Between her performance in the Italian capital and her results on the clay from the last few seasons, Sharapova ought to be feeling relatively optimistic about her chances of going deep or possibly taking the title.

It is safe to assume that Kanepi was not feeling nearly as confident about her chances as Sharapova before the tournament began, and probably felt even less confident when she was drawn against the Russian in the opening round.  But that does not necessarily mean that the notion of Kanepi pulling off the upset should be dismissed.  She may be ranked just inside the top 50 presently, but before Achilles issues stymied her progress, she did reach a career-high ranking of No. 15.  She also loves the dirt, and Roland Garros, where she has reached the quarterfinals twice, is her best major.  Furthermore, she is a veteran of the game, so while she is still a long shot, this is a woman who knows her way around the court and has troubled the top players in the past.

Both women play a similar style of game, but Sharapova does everything better.  She is more consistent from the back of the court, and she possesses more firepower off every shot than her opponent.  In addition to that, she owns a perfect 4-0 record against the Estonian, and only once in those four meetings has she dropped a set.  If that mental edge were not big enough, Sharapova is one of, if not the toughest opponent to put away, no matter how large the lead.  Given Kanepi's reputation for getting tight when on the verge of causing an upset, it makes her prospects of getting the better of the Russian seem even more remote.

But if there is one silver lining for the Estonian, it is to look at Sharapova's play in recent months.  As previously noted, she struggled for approximately a two-month period before winning in Rome.  Even in Rome, she was never really tested until the final, and she nearly failed that test in spite of being the heavy favorite against Carla Suarez Navarro.  If Kanepi is able to push Sharapova, to where the No. 2 seed's own nerves come into play, then perhaps Kanepi has an outside chance. In any case, this match is in Sharapova's hands and expect her to book a place in the second round.