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Wimbledon Day 1 ATP Preview: Baghdatis, Tsonga, Johnson

Jun 22nd 2014

The third major of 2014 opens on Monday at the hallowed lawns of the All England Club. Read about three key men’s matches to watch on the first day of Wimbledon.

Dustin Brown

Dustin Brown v. Marcos Baghdatis

Time is running thin for Marcos Baghdatis. The 29-year-old Cypriot has seen his ranking plunge out of the top 100 for the first time since 2009 and was forced to rely on a wildcard to obtain his spot in the tournament. Baghdatis did not play in the French Open and was eliminated in the opening round of the Australian Open. As a player who thrives upon rhythm, particularly over a best-of-five match, Dustin Brown is about the worst unseeded opponent he could have hoped for in the first round.

Brown’s blitzkrieg style of play sees him throwing the kitchen sink at each and every opponent. He is one of the boldest players the tour has seen in quite some time, and regardless of his opponent and the score, Brown goes after each and every shot.

Their only meeting came over two years ago on the red dirt in Munich. Baghdatis won this match, but it should be no indication of what is to come. Brown’s game has dramatically evolved since their first meeting, while Baghdatis is only a shadow of his former self.

Baghdatis enters this match having won the Nottingham Challenger at the beginning of the month before he retired from his second-round match against Stan Wawrinka at Queen’s Club with a shoulder injury. Brown’s bombardment of a fatigued Rafael Nadal in Halle should give Baghdatis plenty of concern. If Brown’s game is clicking, his collection of offensive options will be too much for Baghdatis to handle.

Prediction: Brown in four sets

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v. Jurgen Melzer

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has made a living by balancing out his moments of greatness and his moments of instability. His 2014 season has been a study of what happens when Tsonga begins to lose his grip over his highs and lows. While a fair share of his losses have come against elite competition, he’s proven to be less of a formidable obstacle than in past years.

Having drawn Austrian Jurgen Melzer in the first round, things aren’t going to get any easier for Tsonga. Melzer is a former top-10 player and one of the most dangerous unseeded players looming in the draw. His grass-court ability was on full display in ‘s-Hertogenbosch this past week as he reached the semifinals, taking out Fernando Verdasco in a three-hour, three-tiebreak marathon match. Tsonga’s lack of form was evident for all to see as he quietly bowed out of Queen’s Club to Marinko Matosevic in the second round.

Tsonga will take confidence in the fact that he has never lost to Melzer and was able to breeze through their most recent match in the second round of the French Open.

Being a lefty, Melzer will have much easier access to Tsonga’s vulnerable backhand side. His spinning lefty serve and cross-court forehand gives him a major advantage that right handed players wouldn’t have. Melzer’s variety off the slice backhand and prowess moving forward should work to keep Tsonga off balance.

Prediction: Melzer in five sets

Roberto Bautista Agut

Steve Johnson v. Roberto Bautista Agut

Steve Johnson is still in the hunt for his first main-draw victory at Wimbledon. The big serving American lost a heartbreaking five-set match in the first round to countryman Bobby Reynolds last year. Johnson takes on a familiar foe in the first round in Roberto Bautista Agut, the Spaniard who beat him in both Indian Wells and Miami.

Bautista Agut has experienced a meteoric rise over the last two years. Prior to August 2012, he had never been ranked in the top 100. Today, the flat-hitting Spaniard is ranked within inside the top 30 and just captured his maiden title in ‘s-Hertogenbosch yesterday, defeating Benjamin Becker in a tightly fought three set final.

Bautista Agut is the clear favorite coming in, but the surface should aid Johnson’s game. Like most Americans, his game is predicated off his serve and forehand. On hard courts and clay courts, Johnson attempts to minimize the amount of backhands he plays, since it is by far his weakest and least technically sound shot. When he does play a backhand, he often prefers to slice it. The courts at Wimbledon and grass courts in general provide Johnson with more occasions where he can feel comfortable slicing his backhand. As a result, Johnson will be attempting a decreased amount of precarious inside-out and inside-in forehands.

Bautista Agut will be keen to keep Johnson on the move and prevent him from setting up with his forehand. The Spaniard’s knack for getting balls back into play and putting his racket on a lot of serves will make it tough for Johnson to dictate points. It’ll be interesting to see if Bautista Agut will be troubled by Johnson’s slice backhand, which may make it harder for him to flatten shots out.

Prediction:  Bautista Agut in four sets