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Wimbledon ATP Day 4 Preview: Nadal, Federer, Janowicz

Jun 25th 2014

The remaining second-round men’s matches at Wimbledon will unfold on Thursday, including a rematch of a spectacular upset here in 2012 and a battle of youthful firepower against veteran experience.

Rafael Nadal

Lukas Rosol v. Rafael Nadal

Here is the rematch we’ve all been waiting for. Just under two years ago, on the same court they will play on tomorrow, Rosol stunned the world by taking out Nadal in the second round of Wimbledon.

Rosol was ranked No. 100 in the world at the time and was relatively unknown. After constructing one of the all-time great performances in tennis history, particularly in the fifth set, Rosol’s game was an enigma no more. There will be no mysteries entering tomorrow’s match. Nadal knows what’s coming and will be fully prepared to counter the litany of Rosol blows off the serve and from the baseline.

The issue for the Czech tomorrow is that he will have to lift his game to the same heights that saw him past the Spaniard in 2012, a task that may be nearly impossible. For five sets that day, Rosol obliterated serves, forehands, and backhands with the intention of bypassing Nadal with every strike. Normally such a strategy is bound to crumble at some point, but somehow Rosol was able to hit winner after winner after winner for the duration of the match—a spectacle that had to be seen to be believed. There was no precedent for such a performance and no apt description to characterize what Rosol had done because no one had ever seen anything like it.

It would be nothing short of shocking if Rosol is able to replicate what he did in 2012, or even come close. If Rosol wants to win this match, he’ll probably have to do so quickly. Martin Klizan got off to a fast start against Nadal in the first round but was only able to keep the pressure on for a set and a half. Nadal will be quick to take advantage of any letup on Rosol’s part, which could occur at any time.

Nadal beat Rosol in their only meeting since the Wimbledon epic in Doha earlier this year. Expect the Spaniard to obtain his revenge and get through Rosol with little trouble.

Prediction: Nadal in three sets

Roger Federer

Roger Federer v. Gilles Muller

Last year in the second round at Wimbledon, Roger Federer was on the wrong end of history. Sergiy Stakhovsky served and volleyed his way to Wimbledon glory.

Tomorrow, in the same round, Federer will be taking on yet another serve and volleyer, this time of the lefty variety. Federer’s opponent, Gilles Muller, has won 24 of his last 26 matches overall.  Muller and Federer last met six years ago in the quarterfinals of the U. S. Open. Federer won this match in straight sets and has never dropped a set to the only man from Luxembourg ranked inside the ATP top 800.

Where Federer struggled against Stakhovsky and against big servers in the past is off the backhand return. In general, one-handers have an increasingly tough time handling the pace and variety of spins offered by talented servers. Opponents have found success going flat to Federer’s backhand on first serves and utilizing topspin on second serves, which Federer tends to chip or float back, putting his opponents on the offense.

On Thursday, Federer’s ability to anticipate and read Muller’s serve will be critical. Muller’s placement and speed off the serve allow him to make consistent, effective forays into the net. If Federer can deliver low, flat returns throughout the match, however, Muller’s authority at the net will be minimized.

The underdog’s baseline game should be no match for Federer’s. Expect the Swiss to sneak some breaks and get the job done after some tense moments.

Prediction: Federer in four sets

Jerzy Janowicz

Jerzy Janowicz v. Lleyton Hewitt

If Jerzy Janowicz were to lose on Thursday, his ranking would drop 30 spots to No. 55.  Having reached the semifinals last year, the 68 Polish skyscraper is undoubtedly contesting the most important tournament of his entire season.

Lleyton Hewitt, the 2002 champion, is looking to continue to muster whatever he can out of the seemingly short time remaining in his career. At 33 years old, the adrenaline-charged Aussie will be looking to turn back the clock and deliver a massive blow to one of the premier young guns.

Janowicz has only won four matches since February as his game has been marginalized by questionable shot selection, overplaying of shots, and poor tactics. In his first-round match, Janowicz needed five sets to get by Somdev Devvarman, a former NCAA singles champion but a player who has only won three grass-court matches in his entire career at the ATP level.

Hewitt will take confidence in the fact that Janowicz has been well off his game recently. He’ll relish the opportunity to move one step closer to the second week of a major but will be wary of the fact that he had his own set of problems against Michal Przysiezny, a player who is also from Poland and one who entered the tournament 1-15 on the season.

Hewitt’s proclivity to the grass and his playing style are likely to drive Janowicz up a wall. Hewitt’s sensational ability to neutralize serving power off the return will get him into a lot of Janowicz service games. The other part of Hewitt’s game that will prove thorny for Janowicz is his capacity to vary the pace, height, and spin on his groundstrokes. Janowicz is one of the flattest hitters on tour and prefers to drive through balls between waist and chest level.

Hewitt is a veteran of the game and will realize that not giving Janowicz the same ball twice is a smart strategy. The other aspect of Hewitt’s game that will unsettle Janowicz is his grit. Hewitt is famous for his ball-retrieving skills and has a wonderful knack for turning defense into offense. Janowicz is not so famous for his patience and will need to control what’s going on between his ears against a player who can frustrate opponents as much as Hewitt does.

Prediction: Hewitt in five sets