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Will The Top Seeds Get the Job Done in New York?

Aug 24th 2016

The US Open is nigh, which means fans and players are gearing up for the last major of 2016.  As it falls towards the latter stages of the year, it is not uncommon for a number of the competitors to come in battling fatigue and nursing various aches, pains, and niggling injuries.  But despite the wear and tear that has some question marks surrounding even the greatest of champions, the US Open has not historically been known for producing surprise winners.  The top players typically find a way to get the job done, and yet, there is once again some doubt as to their ability to do so again in 2016.

Novak Djokovic

On the men's side, Novak Djokovic unquestionably comes in looking more vulnerable than he has in quite some time.  After a nearly flawless front half of the season, he has appeared downright human thus far in the back half.  He suffered a shocking early dismissal at Wimbledon and played sketchy tennis on his way to the title in Canada.  He followed that up with a disappointing first-round loss in the Olympics, after which it was revealed he was suffering from a wrist injury that would keep him out of Cincinnati.  With little match preparation, some heartbreaking losses, and a potentially still troublesome wrist, there is no telling how sharp the Serb will look as he attempts to defend his title.

On the women's side, Serena Williams has followed a similar trajectory to her fellow Number 1.  The first half of her season was not quite as dominant as the Serb's, but Williams was regularly in the thick of it, reaching the finals of the Australian Open and Indian Wells before bagging her first title of 2016 in Rome and going on to reach the final of Roland Garros.  She finally got the monkey off her back by reigning victorious at Wimbledon, but things quickly went downhill from there.  A shoulder injury forced her withdrawal from Canada, contributed to her early exit at the Olympics, and prevented her from taking advantage of a wildcard in Cincinnati.  She is hardly where she wants to be as she heads to New York in search of her twenty-third major singles title and the opportunity to surpass Steffi Graf for most consecutive weeks at Number 1.

Serena Williams

So with both world no.1's struggling with injuries and short on match play, does that mean the door is wide open for the rest of the field?  A case could be made that Andy Murray or Angelique Kerber might step up to the plate, and it would hardly be a surprise to see them do so.  They are each ranked world no. 2, are Grand Slam Champions, and Murray, in particular, has been very impressive this season.  Rafael Nadal also did not look bad in Rio despite his injury layoff, and Juan Martin Del Potro, Milos Raonic, and Marin Cilic have also been playing some top-notch tennis.  The same could be said of Simona Halep, Venus Williams, and to a slightly lesser extent, Agnieszka Radwanska and Johanna Konta.  They definitely have the game to possibly win a slam, even against a healthy, match-tough top seed, and under these present circumstances, the rest of the field has to like their odds for success.

Then again, it is hard to bet against both Djokovic and Williams.  For all of the talent in the rest of the field, only Murray has really been able to match the consistency these two have shown throughout the majority of the season.  They have more experience playing matches of this magnitude than most of their competition, and then there is the matter of their respective records in Flushing Meadows.  Djokovic has been to the final five of the last six years and won it twice, while Williams has been to the final four of the last five years and won three times.  Players tend to play their best where they have enjoyed great success, and based on those stats, Djokovic and Williams are quite at home in New York.

So will the world no.1's cap off their Grand Slam seasons in style or will a member of the field play spoiler?  The latter once again seems likely, perhaps more so this year than the last few, but if they can get through those initial opening rounds, look out for Djokovic and Williams.  They might defy the odds to keep their impressive records at the US Open intact, but only time will tell.