It was a fortnight of shockers for the women’s field at the US Open, and yet Serena Williams, who has been so solid here over the years, has survived the carnage to once again contest the championship match.  Her opponent in Sunday’s final will be her friend and former No. 1 Caroline Wozniacki, a woman who surprised many with her run here in New York.  For Williams, this match is a chance to join an elite group with 18 singles major titles.  For Wozniacki, it is an opportunity to prove the naysayers wrong by securing her first Grand Slam.  Both would make for great stories, but only one of them can come to fruition.

Most would favor Williams getting to No. 18 rather than Wozniacki earning her first major singles championship.  The American is unquestionably more in control of the match.  She hits bigger than the Dane off both wings and off the serve, and while Wozniacki can compete with her in the movement department, the superior firepower of Williams should allow her to more easily turn defense into offense.  Wozniacki will test the consistency of Williams, however, but that does not mean merely waiting for Williams to commit errors.  Instead, Wozniacki, as she did in her victory over Maria Sharapova, needs to look to be offensive when she can – particularly off Williams’ second serve – and keep the No. 1 off balance.  Additionally, Wozniacki has the stamina to go the distance, perhaps more so than Williams. But in order to get to that point, she must do everything possible to avoid allowing Williams to run away with things early.

Recent history between the two suggests that Wozniacki should be able to make this a competitive final in spite of her dismal 1-8 record against the current No. 1.  She lost to Williams in Montréal and Cincinnati coming into the US Open, but both losses were three-set encounters that the Dane took to a final set.  In addition to that, Wozniacki should be feeling more confident after getting the win over Sharapova earlier in this tournament, another big-hitting opponent against whom she has a lopsided losing record.    Furthermore, while Wozniacki has not been in this situation nearly to the same extent as Williams, she is no stranger to the latter rounds of majors.  She reached the final here in 2009, so she is not apt to be completely overawed by the occasion.  And finally, she is friends with Williams, which means she is less likely to be as intimidated by the American as most other opponents.

For her part, Williams will be well aware that this match could evolve into more than the walk in the park it might at first appear to be, and she must guard against allowing their recent close encounters to put doubts in her own mind.  She needs to remind herself that she has ample reason to feel optimistic about earning the victory on Sunday.  She has been dominant at the US Open over the years, and she has won this event the last two seasons.  She has yet to drop a set this tournament.  In fact, none of the sets have even been close.  That includes her opening set against Flavia Pennetta in the quarterfinals, in which Williams lost the first three games of the match to go down a double break.  She also comes in knowing that she has far more experience on this stage and the bigger game, which means she will the one primarily in control of the match.  And finally, she played her best tennis in the previous round against Ekaterina Makarova, so she enters this final in stellar form.  Assuming she does not allow the magnitude of the moment to get to her, her 18th major singles title is there for the taking.

Whether Williams will win that coveted 18th major singles title is as yet unknown.  After all, no matter what the odds may say, nothing is certain.  This year’s US Open, with all of its upsets, has proven that, and Wozniacki may just have it in her to cause one more to cap off an eventual two weeks.  In the end, no matter which way this one unfolds, it will have been a tremendous effort by both combatants.