Still flying under the radar compared to Serena, Maria, and Petra, Eugenie Bouchard looks to become one of just two women to reach the second week of a major for the first time. Meanwhile, a diminutive Spaniard hopes to duplicate her surprise quarterfinal appearance at the US Open last year.

Carla Suarez Navarro versus Kaia Kanepi

Virtually all sports brackets have seeds that are expected to follow a certain progression over the course of the draw.  But as is so often the case, upsets occur and the things rarely stay true to form.  The women’s US Open draw has been no exception to this trend, and for seeds who are left a golden opportunity could be waiting.

No. 15 seed Carla Suarez Navarro is certainly one of those women looking to take advantage of the carnage that has ravaged the draw.  Instead of battling 2011 US Open champion Samantha Stosur for a spot in the round of 16, she will face the unheralded Kaia Kanepi.  It is arguably a break for the Spaniard, but perhaps not as much as it might appear.

Historically, things have been very tight between the pair.  Kanepi actually holds a 4-3 edge in their rivalry, and they have split their two meetings this season.  These hard courts are also more of an equalizer, for both admit to preferring to play on the clay.  With little to choose between them, this is a match that could come down to the intangibles.

When it comes to those intangibles, the slight advantage has to go to Suarez Navarro.  As shown by her higher ranking, the Spaniard has been playing the better tennis of late.  Suarez Navarro earned an impressive win over Maria Sharapova en route to reaching the quarterfinals in Montréal and logged a round-of-16 showing in Cincinnati.  Her recent performances should give her the confidence to let her game flow, which means her beautifully sweeping one-handed backhand could be all the more devastating against Kanepi.

Kanepi is in with more than a fighter’s chance, however.  Her ranking may be at No. 50, but she was once as high as No. 15 before injuries and a subsequent lack of confidence caused her to tumble.  Additionally, she is likely to draw plenty of belief from her victory over Stosur, which came courtesy of securing a third-set tiebreak by the score of 10-8.  Coming out on top in such a manner is bound to give her confidence in the big moments when she squares off against Suarez Navarro.

In essence, this one is too close to call.  Neither has traditionally played her best tennis in New York, although both have made the quarterfinals once.  Still, it is going to come down to who handles the occasion best.  Suarez Navarro is arguably in the better position to do just that.

Eugenie Bouchard versus Barbora Zahlavova Strycova

With the surprising number of upsets that have riddled the women’s event, it is almost a wonder that any high seeds are left.  Eugenie Bouchard has thus far managed to avoid the fate of many of her top-10 peers, and come Saturday night, she will be asked to test fate yet again when she takes to the court against Barbora Zahlavova Strycova.   

There is plenty of reason for Bouchard to be optimistic about surviving to week 2, and it is not just because she has reached the semifinals or better at the last three majors.  Overall, she has had an excellent season that has propelled her into the top 10 of the rankings, and she is most at home on the hard courts.  She has also won her only two meetings against the Czech, and in the most recent match between the two, the Canadian dropped just three games.

In contrast to Bouchard, Zahlavova Strycova does not seem to have as many reasons to be confident heading into this third round encounter.  Not only does she come in knowing she has yet to defeat the young upstart, but she freely admits to prefer playing on either grass or clay.  And while she has had a good enough year to achieve a career-high ranking of No. 29, her tennis has not been as consistent as Bouchard’s in 2014.  That said, the Czech did just log her best showing at Wimbledon two months ago by reaching the quarterfinals, and by a slim margin, she did play better on the hard courts this summer than the Canadian. 

In addition to her recent form, Zahlavova Strycova has a good look at getting her first victory over Bouchard if for no other reason than all of the pressure will be on the No. 7 seed.  As has been previously noted, Bouchard did not have a great summer and has talked about feeling the added expectations.  She showed some nerves in her second-round match against Cirstea, and she can ill afford to do that against Zahlavova Strycova, who has been playing better and has more confidence than the struggling Romanian.  The Czech can make Bouchard feel more pressure, however, if she utilizes her net game.  Zahlavova Strycova is a former top-20 doubles player, so if she is able to work her way to the forecourt and take Bouchard out of her comfort zone, she might be able to coax more than a few errors from her opponent.

In the end, this has the potential to be a tightly contested battle. History and ranking favor Bouchard to make the second week of a major yet again, but Zahlavova Strycova.  has the game to get the better of the Canadian and book her own berth in the Round of 16.