Venus Williams versus Sloane Stephens

It is an enticing semifinal clash that many Americans were hoping would come to pass.  Venus Williams, who made the final here twenty years ago, incredibly finds herself just one win away from making her third major final of the season.  Her opponent, Sloane Stephens, has enjoyed a run here that is no less miraculous.  After sitting out eleven months following surgery, she has gone on an absolute tear this summer and suddenly finds herself just two victories away from her maiden slam singles title.  Both deserve a crack at the trophy, but ultimately only one of them will have the chance to vie for that coveted prize.

When it comes to looking at their respective games and chances for success, there are a number of similarities.  Each can produce penetrating ground strokes, and while their forehands can often be the most lethal, their backhands are the more reliable.  Both can also generate winners and quickly put themselves in control of the rallies with their serves.  The defense these two competitors have been able to exhibit is also exceptional, as it can be nearly impossible to hit through them.  As similar as they are, however, Williams tends to do most things just a little better than Stephens.  She typically gets more juice on her shots, and as the naturally more offensive-minded player, she will be the one more likely to look to dictate the points.  Furthermore, Williams will regularly hit herself out of a tight spot versus Stephens who often falls back on her defense, which will not be enough if Williams is on her game.  And though Stephens has done a better job of late in showing courage instead of waiting for her opponent to miss in the big moments, there is a real question mark as to whether she will have the guts to do that against Williams with a berth in the final at stake.

The magnitude of the occasion also lends itself to favoring Williams for the victory.  As a seven-time major singles champion, she has been here far more often than Stephens, and she has those two finalist appearances from this year alone.  She is more match-tough from all her stellar results in 2017, and she has been more battle-tested throughout this event, which could pay dividends if this match stays close.  None of this is to say that Stephens does not have some things working in her favor as far as the mental approach goes though.  She did win their lone meeting, which came two years ago at Roland Garros.  She has the freedom of being the underdog, and she may be feeling that freedom even more given that she likely never dreamed that after making her return earlier this summer after sitting out eleven months she would find this level of success so quickly.

Whether Stephens will continue to find that level of success on Thursday remains to be seen.  She should definitely have the belief and has already demonstrated that she has the tools to pull off the upset.  Even so, the smart money remains on Williams.  She is the one best-equipped to determine what happens out there, and if she is firing on all cylinders, then she is not about to be passing off the generational torch to Stephens just yet.

Madison Keys versus Coco Vandeweghe

It is a battle of the young guns who are sure to come guns a-blazing in this semifinal showdown that features Madison Keys against Coco Vandeweghe.  They are two of the most prominent faces of the future of American women's tennis, and both will be keen to get the victory and proclaim herself the leader of that pack.

An important factor in determining just which of these two women will take a step towards becoming leader of the pack will be the execution of their games.  It seems obvious, but it is particularly so in this case, as Keys and Vandeweghe share much in common.  Both are used to being the player with the superior firepower and controlling what happens on court.  Each also prefers to inflict damage with her serve and forehand.  In this match-up, Keys boasts a little more firepower and has been hitting her backhand better of late, but Vandeweghe can track down a few more balls, has more variety, and is more comfortable in the forecourt.  These subtle differences could make the difference in the big moments, but all told, getting on top of the points early is going to be crucial to each woman's odds for success.

Skill sets aside, the more intriguing aspect in this contest concerns which woman is ready to step up and embrace this moment.  It is very tempting to give the edge to Keys.  She is the higher seed, which means overall, she has had the better results.  She has been to a major semifinal before, so Thursday night will not be a shock to her system.  And perhaps most importantly of all, Keys won both of their prior meetings, which came earlier this summer in the final of Stanford and in their opening match in Cincinnati.  She ought to be feeling reasonably confident of pulling off the hat trick to advance to the final.

Of course, with the two wins under her belt, Keys may feel added pressure to make it three in a row against her compatriot.  Vandeweghe will have the luxury of knowing that she is not the one expected to win but knowing that it is perfectly feasible, as her matches against Keys were close.  Like Keys, she has also been to this stage of a major before and is unlikely to be overawed by the situation. Vandeweghe has been tested more than Keys as well this tournament, and although she continues to occasionally show her fiery demeanor out there, she has looked more like the player who wants to own the moment and take the fans with her for the ride.  That, too, could provide her the belief when she needs it most.

Irrespective of which way this one unfolds, it has been a fantastic tournament for Keys and Vandeweghe.  It has increasingly looked like it is a stepping stone to future success at this level, but no doubt both are eager to realize even greater success before this tournament comes to a close.  This has a 50-50 feel, but based on past results this summer, the slight nod of the head goes to Keys to reach her first major final.