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US Open Women's Final Preview

Sep 9th 2016

A lot has happened over the course of this US Open, including stunning upsets, scintillating tennis, and confirmation of a change at the top of the rankings after more than three seasons of dominance by Serena Williams.  Through it all, Angelique Kerber has lived up to her second seeding to reach her third major final of 2016.  Her opponent is Karolina Pliskova, a young Czech who is now delivering on the promise that her talent demands.  She finds herself in her first major final where she will be asked to pull off one more shocking upset to win the title.

As with any match, the outcome will to some degree be determined by how successfully these players execute their respective game plans and how often they are able to impose their game on the other woman.  Despite her lower seeding, it is Pliskova who has a better look at controlling the outcome purely from a game standpoint.  She has one of the biggest serves on tour, and it has garnered her more aces than anyone else in the WTA.  That allows her more freedom on her return games, which can translate into making more inroads into her opponent's serve, and her hard, flat groundstrokes are richly rewarded on this surface as well.  If playing at her top level, she can take Kerber out of the match, much like she did in Cincinnati.

Karolina Pliskova

But Kerber is one of the most difficult competitors to hit off the court, and given that she is fresher now than when they met in the final of Cincinnati, most are looking for Kerber to have a little more say in how this one pans out.  She has a great return and is possibly the best retriever in the sport right now.  What makes her defense so incredible though is that she does not just keep putting the ball in play – she does something with it.  She can find the short angle from either wing or rip the forehand up the line, thereby turning defense into offense in a hurry.  Provided she can protect her serve by putting in a high percentage, then the other parts of her game could severely test Pliskova by making her hit on the move and more balls than she is used to.  Then the errors might spray from the Czech's racquet and help the German to her second major title of the season.

What may also assist the second seed in earning this US Open title is her mental fortitude and experience.  She has been a different player in 2016, and it all stems from her improved attitude.  She keeps the temper in check and has done a far better job of riding out the storms and hanging in the points.  In regards to Pliskova specifically, she does lead the tenth seed 4-3 overall and 3-2 on hard courts.  She no longer has to worry about trying to secure the Number 1 ranking, and naturally the fact that she did win the Australian Open earlier this season and is now in her third major final of the year to just the first appearance for the Czech bodes well for Kerber's odds of being the one to better handle the occasion.

Angelique Kerber

Only a fool would assume that Pliskova will wilt on the grand stage, however.  She had an entire stadium full of people against her and found herself in a hole when she faced Venus Williams but dug deep to come up with a victory.  She did not bat an eye when contesting and advancing in her first slam quarterfinal, but she was most impressive in her victory over Serena Williams.  Time and again she came up with the powerful serve or ground stroke to get herself out of trouble and ultimately secure the upset against one of the greatest champions in the history of the sport.  She is aware she owns the more penetrating weaponry and knows it can net her a routine victory over the German much like it did a few weeks ago in Cincinnati.  If she remembers all of that, then there is no reason why she cannot demonstrate herself ready to seize this moment.

If both of these women come with guns blazing, fans are in for a treat.  There could be some breathtaking offense and defense to turn this into a match worthy of the championship of the year's final major.  Pliskova unquestionably has the entire package to become a Grand Slam singles winner as evidenced by the victories she has strung together to reach this stage.  But Kerber has been so tough and so solid all year long.  Her experience and skills make her the more attractive pick to call the favorite, and it is hard to imagine a more fitting way for her to solidify her rise to Number 1 than by being crowned the 2016 US Open Champion.