Simona Halep versus Lucie Safarova 

People often talk about the “luck of the draw” when dissecting a player's chances of going deep at an event.  It can favor some, placing them in a soft section, while simultaneously hindering others by placing tricky hurdles in their path early.  Simona Halep finds herself in the latter camp.  She looked downright ruthless in her opening match, but she knows that her opponent in the second round, Lucie Safarova, is apt to pose a much stiffer challenge. 

Currently ranked Number 44, Safarova came into this US Open unseeded.  It can be easy to forget, however, that just a year ago she was ranked a career-high Number 5 in singles and Number 4 in doubles before some scary health issues halted her momentum.  She has also been more consistent at the slams in recent years.  She reached the final four at Wimbledon in 2014 and made her debut in a major singles final last year in Paris.  Couple in that she is a major women's doubles champion, and she definitely represents a formidable foe to anyone. 

Of course, Halep is also a woman few, if any, relish the opportunity to face.  The Romanian has had to overcome some niggling injuries that contributed to the occasional slump, but she is seeded fifth here and has been ranked as high as world no. 2.  Like the Czech, she is a former finalist at Roland Garros, and she has been to the semifinals of both Wimbledon and the US Open.  She has had more than a solid 2016, capturing titles in Madrid and Montreal, and would love to cap off her Grand Slam season by doing something special in New York. 

Each of these two women has a decent look at moving through to the third round because they are relatively evenly matched.  Safarova gets a little more juice on her ground strokes, and in particular, she should be looking to use that hooking, lefty forehand to open up the court.  Her serve also has more power behind it, and again, she should be looking to use her advantage as a left-hander on that stroke as well.  Most importantly for her though is that she needs to be looking to move forward.  Her play in the forecourt is where she has the most distinct advantage against the fifth seed, and getting up there with any regularity will allow her to avoid playing the Romanian's game and robbing Halep of time. 

As far as Halep is concerned, she knows she packs a punch bigger than her size would suggest, and that means looking to take control of the rallies as frequently as she can.  She is the superior mover and should be looking to put the Czech on the run in the extended rallies.  Furthermore, she generally does an exceptional job of changing the direction of the ball.  The longer points will favor her, so it is all about striking the right balance between offense and defense. 

It is also about having the confidence to successfully execute the game plan when the chips are down, and it is in this area where Halep holds the bulk of the cards.  Although they have had a couple of close battles, it is the Romanian who leads their rivalry 3-1.  At present, however, the bigger feather in her cap is that she has had a lot more to celebrate in 2016 than Safarova.  She has looked especially good throughout this summer, winning in Montreal and reaching the semifinals in Cincinnati, so there is no doubt that she has to be feeling much more positive about her own game than the Czech. 

So will Halep live up to her seeding to advance to the third round?  Most signs indicate that she will.  Safarova is too solid of a player to be counted out in this encounter, and she is certainly capable of playing well above her current ranking.  But there is no substitute for match play and the confidence that comes as a result of it, and Halep has that in abundance right now.  If she plays her game, that should be enough to see her safely through to the next round. 

Steve Johnson versus Juan Martin del Potro 

One of the key components to achieving success in tennis is grabbing a hold of every opportunity that presents itself.  It could come in the form of riding on and building on a wave of momentum as Steve Johnson has done since the grass season.  It could be making the most of a wildcard, which is what Juan Martin del Potro is dreaming of doing.  Both have produced some great story lines in recent weeks, but come Thursday, only one of them will have the chance to do so at the US Open. 

Del Potro already knows what it takes to reign victorious in Flushing Meadows.  He defeated both Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer on his way to taking the title here seven years ago and looked well on his way to becoming part of the established elite, vying for the sport's most prestigious titles.  Since then, his wrist woes have been well documented, but he has really started to once again turn it on in 2016.  He reached the semifinals in both Delray and Stuttgart, but he was most impressive a few weeks ago at the Rio Olympics where he defeated both Novak Djokovic and Nadal to reach the final where he lost a competitive match to Andy Murray.  Suffice it to say, he is playing better than his current ranking of Number 142 and could get a lot of mileage out of his US Open wildcard. 

The Argentine's opponent, Johnson, has also been quite impressive of late.  It started during the grass court season earlier this summer where he picked up his first tour title in Nottingham.  He followed that up with a second-week showing at Wimbledon and has been solid throughout the hard court summer, including a semifinal run in Washington DC and quarterfinal finishes at Cincinnati and the Olympics.  He also won a bronze medal in men's doubles at Rio and just before the start of the US Open became the highest-ranked American.  It has been the greatest stretch of his professional career, and he is keen to make it even greater. 

Despite his higher ranking, however, the odds do not favor Johnson in this contest.  The American is a solid, all-around player.  He inflicts more damage with his forehand, and his backhand slice is decent enough to potentially make it tricky for the tall Argentine to get down for his shots.  The issue for Johnson is that he does not have anything to really hurt the former US Open Champion with, whereas del Potro packs some serious firepower.  His forehand can be like a cannon on the court, and he is going to get far more mileage out of his serve so long as he is putting in a high percentage.  And although his backhand is not the weapon it once was, he still gets more pop off of it when he wants to and is able to admirably defend and neutralize rallies with the slice off of that wing. 

Aside from his bigger game, the other factors in del Potro's favor are that he has been here more often and is the fresher mentally of the two.  After coming back from two sets down and saving six match points in his first round, Johnson is probably thanking his lucky stars that he advanced to this point.  That can give a player a second life, but one has to wonder how much gas he physically and mentally has left in the tank.  Del Potro, by contrast, won his opening match relatively comfortably, is a former major champion, and he enters this match fully aware that he is in the prime position to control proceedings. 

All told, Johnson is a solid and respectable player, but this is del Potro's match to win or lose.  He simply has too much game and too much experience.  Barring an exceptional effort from Johnson or an off day for del Potro, the Argentine will continue to make use of his wildcard by advancing to the third round.