Novak Djokovic versus Gael Monfils

Back to where it all began.  That is where Novak Djokovic and Gael Monfils find themselves.  Their first professional tour meeting took place right here at this venue in the opening round of the 2005 US Open.  On Friday, there will be a little more at stake with a berth in the championship match hanging in the balance, and fans are anxious to see which of these two warriors will book that place in Sunday's final.

The majority of fans expect to see Djokovic there.  The top seed has accumulated twelve major singles titles already, including two in New York.  He also has won more Masters shields than any other player in history and owns sixty-six singles titles overall.  Furthermore, he has been far and away the most dominant player for the past couple of seasons.  Thanks to minor injuries and off-court issues, he has actually looked human the last few months, but there have been signs this tournament that he is quickly rediscovering his best form. 

Monfils is a player that many believe has always had the talent to win a major.  He is presently ranked world no. 12 and has been as high as Number 7 after all.  He has mixed it up with the sport's best and has made the latter rounds of tournaments at all levels of the game, including the majors.  He has had a good 2016 thus far, reaching the finals of Rotterdam and Monte-Carlo, winning the title in Washington and reaching the semifinals in Canada.   He now finds himself in his second major semifinal and will be keen to use it as a stepping stone to his first slam championship.

Monfils will have his work cut out for him, however, if he hopes to force the upset.  He has the speed to match the Serb.  He can equal him in power on the serve and from the baseline, and can even exceed him in those areas. He also has a net game, that while not the best, is still underrated.  The issue for the Frenchman is that while he has improved in terms of playing more high-percentage tennis as opposed to being a showman, it is hard to imagine he can be as patient and consistent as Djokovic.  Additionally, while both men rely on their foot speed to prolong rallies, Djokovic has less of a tendency to fall into a defensive mode and stray too far behind the baseline.  He is naturally more offensive-minded, and if firing on all cylinders, that is the game style that typically wins the day.

Djokovic also holds the clear advantage psychologically in this contest.  He has faced this moment with greater frequency and has defeated the tenth seed in all twelve of their prior meetings, two of which came at this venue and one a routine victory this summer in the semifinals in Canada.  And while there is an argument for both the benefits and downsides to his path to this semifinal, given that Djokovic has had to play very little to reach this stage, he ought to be mentally rested.  As for Monfils, he has to illustrate to fans and himself that he is ready for this moment.  He has certainly looked more serious about his tennis in recent weeks, but playing Djokovic in the semifinal of a major will test his resolve to keep moving his tennis in the right direction instead of slipping back into the old, comfortable patterns that have won him a lot of fans but have ultimately held him back as a player.

Monfils may exhibit plenty of maturity in this encounter, but even then, it may very well not be enough.  The Frenchman has a lot of flare and talent, and if everything comes together, an upset could be in the cards.  But having lost to the same player twelve consecutive times is a difficult psychological mountain to scale, and the man on the other side of the net has repeatedly shown he can be as tough as they come.  Barring a bad performance from the Serb, expect Djokovic to make it thirteen in a row against Monfils and a chance to play for this thirteenth major title.

Stan Wawrinka versus Kei Nishikori

The semifinal in the bottom half of the men's draw is not the one many expected.  Andy Murray had been the hottest player on tour this summer and looked like a lock to make the last four.  Juan Martin del Potro was the feel-good story of the summer and the third favorite behind Novak Djokovic and Murray to win the title here.  Stan Wawrinka and Kei Nishikori had other plans, however.  Nishikori dismissed Murray while Wawrinka took care of del Potro.  Both men are happy to be in the semifinals, and both are undoubtedly delighted to see the other standing across the net.

Just because Nishikori may be happy to see Wawrinka instead of the Argentine, however, he will not make the mistake of underestimating the Swiss.  The third seed has already won three titles this season and has fourteen overall.  He is at a career-high ranking of Number 3, but the most impressive thing about Wawrinka is that in the era of dominance by the Big 4, he has managed to secure two majors.  The first came at the 2014 Australian Open and the second just last year at Roland Garros.  Suffice it to say, he is unlikely to shy away from earning the chance to add a US Open title to his collection.

Nishikori has not been fortunate enough to grab a major, but he has been on the cusp.  Two years ago he was a match away from claiming this title before falling to Marin Cilic, and he would love to have a second opportunity to taste victory here.  Most agree he has the talent.  He has been as high as world no. 4 and presently sits at Number 7.  He has also had a great 2016.  He has enjoyed numerous deep runs at the majority of the events, with highlights being his finalist appearances in both Miami and Canada, as well as his bronze medal finish in Rio.  A real cherry on top though would be his first slam title.

What remains to be seen is how much control the sixth seed will have over his chances of making a second trip to the final in New York.  He definitely gets more mustard on his shots than his size would suggest.  He is also an aggressive player, unafraid of venturing forward when the moment arises.  In addition to that, he is one of the quickest players on tour, and assuming he is playing well, will surely test the consistency of Wawrinka. 

The problem for Nishikori is that if Wawrinka is having a good day, it may not matter how many balls Nishikori makes him hit.  Wawrinka is one of the biggest ball-strikers in the game, and when at his best, he is able to hit anyone – members of the Big 4 included – off the court.  His backhand is a thing of beauty, and his net play is superior to that of the sixth seed's.  The trick for him though will be to both avoid pulling the trigger too early and having too much respect for Nishikori's speed.  If he is guilty of either, then the unforced errors that can plague him might creep into his game.

To help him better find that level of desired patience and calm, Wawrinka should remind himself that he holds the mental high ground.  He leads their rivalry 3-2, has a game that puts him in a better position to dictate proceedings, and he already knows he has what it takes to go all the way at a major.  As for Nishikori, he is going to gain belief from his win over the Swiss this summer in Canada as well as his overall play throughout this season, which has included pushing Djokovic and defeating Murray in the quarterfinals here.  Then, of course, there is the fact that he has been to the final of this tournament before, so he knows pulling off that feat again is not out of the realm of possibility. 

So will Nishikori book a place in his second major final or will Wawrinka earn the right to vie for his third slam title?  Only time will tell.  Both have a decent look at making the most of their good fortune, and this one definitely has a 50-50 feel to it.  All things considered, however, the slight nod has to go to the Swiss.  If he brings his best, his bigger and better overall game should see him through to the championship on Sunday.