Rafael Nadal versus Juan Martin del Potro

It may not be the Roger Federer versus Rafael Nadal showdown that had been hyped from the outset of the tournament, but the semifinal clash between Nadal and Juan Martin del Potro could be equally as electric with a multitude of fans firmly entrenched in one camp or the other.  It is still a battle that pits great offense against great defense, and both will have a realistic look at advancing to the final where they would be a heavy favorite to be crowned the 2017 US Open Champion.

Not surprisingly, most will look to Nadal as the favorite to win, as well they should.  He leads the Argentine in their rivalry 8-5, and he is a two-time champion at this event.  Although he has not looked his best, he has continued to improve with each round, and there is no discounting the fact that he is the fresher of the pair.

For all the advantages in Nadal's corner, however, del Potro will not be lacking in belief when he takes to the court against the top seed.  He has won his last two meetings with Nadal, and he got the better of the Spaniard at this stage of the tournament back when he won it in 2009. He is bound to take confidence from his impressive victories over both Dominic Thiem and Federer, and he is someone who really knows how to use the crowd support that will undoubtedly be in his own corner.

If del Potro can combine the boost from the crowd along with his own belief to play his best, then he definitely has a look at causing a fourth consecutive upset.  His forehand is one of the biggest shots in the sport, and even the speedy Nadal can only catch up to so many of the frozen ropes the twenty-fourth seed may throw his way.  He should be able to earn a few more free points on his serve, and at his height, will have his opportunities to tee off on Nadal's second delivery.  And while his backhand is not the weapon it once was, it is also no longer as much of a liability.  He has shown an ability to come over it when he needs to most, and at the very least, he can use it to keep the rallies in a neutral position.

It is necessary that del Potro has all those things working in his favor if he is to find success though because anything short of that mark will spell trouble against Nadal.  The Spaniard can produce some nifty offense of his own.  He has flattened out his backhand, and his own forehand has been giving opponents fits for well over a decade.  So long as he avoids the pitfalls of letting that favored stroke fall short, he is going to be able to dictate his share of the rallies.  Then there is the other attribute that is so closely associated with Nadal, and that is his incredible defense.  It is rare for a ball to be struck that he cannot chase down, and that often extracts errors from the opposition as they are goaded into going for too much.  His defense will certainly test the shot-tolerance of the Argentine and provide another source for him to earn points off del Potro.

In the end, Nadal is the clear favorite and perhaps even an arguably heavier favorite than he would have been had he been facing Federer.  He is fresher and has more variety and margin within his game to find a path to success.  But those who would count out del Potro do so at their own peril.  He has too big of a game and accomplished too much not to be taken seriously in this match.  An upset could very much be in the cards, even if the odds lean towards a Nadal victory.

Pablo Carreno Busta versus Kevin Anderson

From the outset, it was expected that the bottom half of the draw would see some new faces take advantage of the opportunity before them to break new ground at a major, and that is exactly what has happened.  Pablo Carreno Busta and Keven Anderson, seeded twelve and twenty-eight respectively, find themselves in their first major semifinal with a berth in their maiden major final so tantalizingly within their grasp.

Despite being the lower seed, most would point to Anderson as the player in the best position to take that last step towards the final.  He unquestionably has the more imposing game.  At 6'8”, he enjoys a decisive edge on serve.  He hits flatter off the ground from both wings, and he will definitely be the one looking to move forward and press the Spaniard into errors.

Of course, bigger is not always better and sufficient enough to guarantee a win.  There is nothing special that stands out about the Spaniard's game, but he has quietly been flying under the radar to become a Top 20 player.  He is not afraid to step in and take control of the rallies with either his backhand or forehand, his net play is underrated, and there are no glaring weaknesses in his game.  He is a solid, all-around player, and as his victory over the red-hot Denis Shapovalov, earlier in this event proved, sometimes it is steadiness rather than flashes of brilliance that wins the day.

As much as the outcome of this match will be determined by their ability to play their respective games, however, the greatest factor in deciding the outcome will be who is mentally ready to take advantage of the golden opportunity that lies before him.  The jury is out on this one because as noted, this is completely uncharted territory for both.  Since returning from injury earlier this year, the South African has looked like a much more positive player filled with more self-belief.  That was on display with the way he bounced back on numerous occasions in his quarterfinal encounter with Sam Querrey. He can be secure in the knowledge that he has the weapons to better dictate what happens on the court, and he has the psychological boost that comes from having won both of their previous encounters, including earlier this summer in Montreal.

Despite those two losses though, Carreno Busta will not be lacking in belief.  He pushed Anderson to a tiebreak in Montreal, and after the way he handled Shapovalov earlier, he is unlikely to be flummoxed by anything the twenty-eighth seed throws his way.  Additionally, it must be said that Carreno Busta handled himself admirably in his quarterfinal victory over Diego Schwartzman, a match in which he was a fairly heavy favorite, and he played it like a man who believed he should win and routinely advance to the semifinals.  If he can bring that level of belief and calmness to the court on Friday, then the payoff could be huge.

As with everything else in this bottom section of the draw, there is no telling exactly what will happen.  Most signs point to a victory for Anderson, who has the more imposing game and has yet to drop a set to the Spaniard.  But Carreno Busta has paid his dues and has been coming into his own all-season long.  A win over the South African is not out of the question.  All that is known for certain is that it has been a fantastic tournament for both men, and for one of them, it is about to become even more memorable.