It feels a bit surreal sitting here on the day before the U. S. Open men’s final previewing a match that will feature Marin Cilic and Kei Nishikori. Two weeks ago, there was nothing anyone could have said to have even remotely convinced me that such a final was plausible. According to Brad Gilbert of ESPN, the odds makers said the chance of a Nishikori-Cilic final prior to the tournament was a staggering 5,000 -1. In a theoretical sense, this means that if the tournament was played 5,000  times, the odds makers would only expect this particular final to occur once.

Prior to this tournament, Marin Cilic had never even reached the final of a Masters Series 1000 event, nor had he won a tournament above the ATP 250 level. Nishikori has won three ATP 500 level events and has only reached the final of one Masters Series 1000 event. Someone’s resume is about to get a colossal boost tomorrow.

Nishikori and Cilic have met on seven different occasions. Their last meeting took place earlier this year in the quarterfinals of Barcelona. Nishikori won this match 6-1 6-3, breaking the Croat five times. He also beat Cilic in the quarterfinals in Brisbane at the beginning of 2014 in a tighter three-set match. Overall, Nishikori leads the head-to-head 5-2, including a 4-2 advantage on hard courts.

Cilic has certainly had to put up with significantly less adversity throughout the event. He has only lost three sets the entire tournament and swept through Federer in the semifinals with no problems whatsoever. Against Federer, Cilic epitomized the phrase “firing on all cylinders.” It felt as if every shot that left Cilic’s racket was not only going to go in but burn through the court like a heat-seeking missile. Cilic was also covering every single square inch of the court with breathtaking efficiency, using his superb foot speed and never-ending wingspan. Getting a ball by him was seemingly impossible. It was one of the best performances of the year and one of the best performances anyone has ever put together against Roger Federer.  He was really machine-like and systematic in his play. All moving parts were synchronized perfectly with no glitches to be found.

Nishikori’s path to the final has been one of the greatest grinds in recent memory. After needing over four hours to dispose of both Milos Raonic and Stan Wawrinka, Nishikori scratched and clawed his way through world No. 1 Novak Djokovic in four sets. The ups and downs that Nishikori has experienced in the last week have been nothing short of incredible. He’s been pushed about as far as any tennis player can be pushed both physically and mentally. The wear and tear have been so visibly exhaustive that many have been left wondering how someone as physically fragile as Nishikori has gotten through it all.

Before his quarterfinal and semifinal matches, it was hard to expect Nishikori to have a lot left in the tank. After losing a very lopsided second set to Djokovic in the semifinals, his marvelous run was bound to end, right? Wrong. Despite having a career filled with injury, Nishikori has proven himself to be an incredibly spirited competitor. If he can play, he will. He has been immune to the pressure and to the expectation of coming up short physically, and averse to letting the past get in his way. In fact, Nishikori nearly skipped the U. S. Open due to a cyst on his toe that had to be removed prior to the tournament.

Since he began working with Goran Ivanisevic, Cilic’s serve has improved remarkably. He’s lowered his ball toss, reduced his back bend, and added a lot of miles per hour to his serve as a result. His placement has also been spot on. In his Wimbledon semifinal, Federer was dealing with bombs from Milos Raonic that carried a lot of speed but were lacking in direction, thus making them simpler to return. Cilic was catapulting his serves into the box, mostly to the Federer backhand, obtaining enough width where Federer was unable to merely block it back into play. He was instead forced to reach and stab at the ball with little effectiveness. Cilic also won nearly 60% of his second-serve points against Federer, disturbing the Swiss with the heavy kick to his backhand.

Against Nishikori, Cilic is not going to have the luxury of being able to continually target a single side off the serve. Nishikori is an excellent returner with lightning-quick reactions. In addition, he gets on top of the ball very quickly and will have a much easier time taking Cilic’s heavy kick serves off the rise than Federer did.

Once engaged in rallies, Cilic demonstrated amazing consistency and for him, an unprecedented ability to blow through openings. Even if he is able to do these same things against Nishikori, the challenge will be combating Nishikori’s defense. Federer is a very decent defender but doesn’t possess anywhere near the same foot speed or defensive skills of Nishikori.

It will also be tough for Cilic to elevate his level of play to the heights we saw in the semifinals. Expect Nishikori to be able to seize control of a lot more rallies than Federer did and keep the 6’6 Cilic out of the center of the court. Once on the offensive, Nishikori has an uncanny propensity to get on top of the ball and get it by his opponents before they even realize what has happened.

Cilic’s return game is one thing that may be able to hurt Nishikori in a big way. As mentioned, Cilic has an absurdly long wingspan and as a result, has the capacity to get his racket on a lot more serves than you might expect. Nishikori’s serve is nothing to write home about, so if Cilic is able to get some good looks and get himself ahead in points, he’ll certainly open up the opportunity for more breaks of serve.

When it comes down to it, the better player usually wins most tennis matches and for my money, Kei Nishikori is the better player here. No disrespect to Marin Cilic, but we are talking about a unique talent in Nishikori. It’s rare that you find a player who is so talented both offensively and defensively.

Look for Nishikori to win this match and win the first of possibly many majors. He is the real deal.

Prediction: Nishikori in four sets