elena Ostapenko versus Maria Sharapova

The collision of the seeds continues on Saturday, and one of the more intriguing of the third-round encounters features a pair of major champions in Jelena Ostapenko and Maria Sharapova.  The two met earlier this year in Rome in what was a hotly-contested affair that resulted in Sharapova edging out Ostapenko 7-5 in the third set.  This one could easily evolve into a repeat of that thriller.  Both play first-strike tennis, bludgeoning balls from the back of the court and constantly looking to be the one dictating play, especially since neither is particularly known for her defense.  Each has also learned to add some touch to her game and picking the right moments to inject that into the match could also prove pivotal. 

For all of their similarities though, this match is apt to turn on two factors.  The first is Sharapova's serving performance.  Her serving numbers have been nothing short of horrendous through the first couple of rounds here.  Her ground game and sheer competitive determination have allowed her to overcome her serving woes, but Ostapenko is both talented and experienced enough to be the player to make her pay if she does not improve in that department.  The second factor to look at is the unforced error count.  Both go for their shots, but Ostapenko can go through patches where she sprays balls.  She has to keep the errors down to keep the pressure on Sharapova or the Russian may just settle down enough to get both her serving and ground game firing on all cylinders.  That said, as the higher seed who has enjoyed more success of late, the edge goes to Ostapenko, but as their previous meeting in Rome would suggest, neither outcome on Saturday would or should be a stunner.

Roger Federer versus Nick Kyrgios

When the draw was released, this was one of the most anticipated of the first-week matches.  It is no wonder why, either.  These two have played a total of nine sets, and eight of the nine have ended in a tiebreak with Federer enjoying the better end of things at 2-1 in this rivalry.  Whether or not this match continues that pattern is anyone's guess.  One knows what they are going to get with Federer.  His serving is spot-on, the forehand is just as lethal and penetrating as ever, and the backhand has also become a more effective weapon the last couple of seasons.  His return, which was definitely rusty in Cincinnati, has looked better in New York, and when he has all of these various facets of his game in working order and combined with his wealth of experience, he is a champion few would bet against in any match. 

As great as Federer is, however, he knows the potential danger that Kyrgios poses to his title hopes.  The Australian possesses explosive power off the ground from both wings, and both his first and second serve – which are really two first serves – tend to cause the opposition fits.  He has a great set of hands as well, and he has good improvisational skills, though sometimes that is to his own detriment.  Kyrgios is just an uncomfortable guy to play.  One never knows what he is going to do, but that also includes whether or not he will even be engaged in the match.  He does tend to get up for these marquee matches though, and there is no doubt that he has the weapons to upset the second seed.  Engaged or not, Federer is still the favorite to come through, but if the Australian comes to play, this is definitely one on which to keep tabs.

Petra Kvitova versus Aryna Sabalenka

The focus throughout the majority of the first week has been on the Williams Sisters and the exodus of the top two women's seeds.  Meanwhile, two potential dark horses have quietly been moving under the radar to set up an interesting third-round battle.  To be fair, prior to the start of the tournament, a number of the pundits were quickly jumping on the Aryna Sabalenka bandwagon, even if that chatter has died down a bit in the days that followed.  The Belorussian, aged only 20, has quickly made the tennis world take notice with her play this summer.  She reached the final of Eastbourne, saved multiple match points in an impressive run to the semifinals of Cincinnati, and captured her maiden title in New Haven right before the start of the US Open. 

She has easy and abundant power on both the forehand and the backhand, and her serve is capable of putting plenty of opponents on their heels.  She plays with the fearlessness of youth, looking to take charge on the pivotal points rather than react to her opponent.  She is facing someone in Kvitova, however, who can match her stroke-for-stroke and in power on the serve.  Kvitova presently has more variety in her game in terms of touch and feel, as well as in her skills in the forecourt.  She, arguably, also has a bit of a mental edge being a two-time Wimbledon Champion and having far more experience playing these types of matches.  Still, Sabalenka pushed Kvitova to the distance in Miami, and she has produced the better tennis of late.  Plus, the US Open has always been Kvitova's worst slam.  Given those factors, although a Kvitova victory would not be surprising in the least, it is Sabalenka, despite being the lower seed, who should be the one favored to advance.