Roger Federer versus Benoit Paire

To borrow from Forrest Gump, Benoit Paire is a bit like a box of chocolates.  You never know what you are going to get.  That is what has some looking with interest at his upcoming match with Roger Federer.  The mercurial Frenchman, much like his idol Marat Safin, can play brilliantly or dismally all within a single match.  He is currently ranked outside of the Top 50 but just two years ago was inside of the Top 20.  At 6'5, he has an imposing serve, and when at his best, his backhand is capable of inflicting damage on any opponent.  He can exhibit some nice feel on that side as well with the drop shot, and he does a good job of recognizing when to move forward.  Of course, Federer can check off all of those boxes, too, and he does those things better.  If that were not enough, not only is his court coverage superior, but his forehand is head and shoulders above that of Paire, for whom the forehand is often a huge liability. 

As he does against most opponents, Federer enjoys a clear mental edge in this rivalry, having dropped only one set in six prior meetings.  If there are any rays of hope for Paire, they would come in the fact that the lone set he did win against the Swiss came this summer on the grass in Halle where he pushed Federer to a third-set tiebreak, and the second seed did look rusty in Cincinnati and still showed some signs of rust in a few aspects of his game in his first round here.  That said, while those factors combined with Paire having a good day could make this an entertaining affair if it ends in anything but a victory for Federer, it will be a colossal upset.

Alexander Zverev versus Nicolas Mahut

For being seeded fourth, there has not been a lot of talk about Alexander Zverev's chances in New York even as an outside favorite to take the title.  That is because for all that he has continued to make deep runs at some of the most prestigious events outside of the slams, he continues to struggle at the majors.  In fact, he has never escaped the second round at this tournament, and though he faces a lucky loser in Nicolas Mahut, there is no guarantee he is set to break new ground by advancing to the third round.  The Frenchman is an experienced veteran, and when at his best, the flat and penetrating groundstrokes he can produce from both the backhand and forehand can make players uncomfortable.  But Mahut is most dangerous when he can get to the net, and as a former Number 1 doubles player, he can do all kinds of things in the forecourt to pressure his opponents and rob them of time. 

For sure, he is going to look to make the German hit passing shots more often than not by consistently looking to rush the net and serving and volleying.  It was a formula that served him well a year ago in Marseille where he defeated Zverev in their only previous meeting.  Zverev is certainly capable of turning the tables on Thursday.  His groundstrokes are definitely more stable and reliable, equipping him to better handle the longer exchanges, and there is more variety in his game to provide him with multiple roads to victory.  He also has an advantage on serve, and his defensive skills are at a higher level than Mahut's, as well.  All told, he is the superior overall player.  He is ranked more than a hundred places ahead of Mahut, which is why he deserves the label as favorite in this contest.  But no one should be ignoring this second-round match as a formality for the German.  Between his own struggles at the majors and Mahut's proven ability to make Zverev uncomfortable enough to garner a victory in the past, there is a decent possibility that this one could end in yet another major disappointment for Zverev.

Kei Nishikori versus Gael Monfils

They are called dangerous floaters.  They are those unseeded competitors, often times former top players themselves, who are lurking in the draw and just waiting to play that brand of tennis that took them to the top at a seeded player's expense.  Gael Monfils is one of those dangerous floaters, and he will be hoping he proves worthy of the name when he takes on Kei Nishikori on Thursday.  This is one of the most enticing of the second-round encounters.  The two men are currently only separated by twenty places in the rankings at Numbers 19 and 39 respectively.  They are also a pair of exciting shot-makers.  Each is extraordinarily quick around the court, able to play some phenomenal defense while ripping the ball from either wing and from anywhere on the court.  Each is also pretty handy around the net and typically makes good headway on his first delivery.

 Not surprisingly, all four of their prior matches have been tightly-contested battles, often going the distance and including multiple tiebreaks.  Sadly, for Monfils, it is Nishikori who has enjoyed the better of the rivalry, however, leading it 3-1.  This is likely because he tends to be a little more consistent over the course of a match, and Nishikori has historically been the one willing to make things happen, whereas Monfils can fall into relying too much on his defense and opting for the flashy over the percentages.  If he wants to avoid falling further behind in the match count against the twenty-first seed, he has to commit to dictating his share of the rallies and avoid taking any unnecessary risks.  As noted, all of their past matches have been close, so if he can do this, then a win is unquestionably in the cards.  That said, Nishikori is the seeded player and leads this rivalry for a reason.  It could be close and with any luck will be highly entertaining, but the slight nod of the head has to go to Nishikori to move through to the third round.