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Stock Watch: Men Rising and Falling Before Wimbledon

Jun 21st 2014

Here is a look at who is in form ahead of Wimbledon and who might be packing their bags early at SW19, based on their recent form at the grass warm-up events.

Nick Kyrgios

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5: Nick Kyrgios

The 19-year-old Australian is now ranked in the top 150 and has a great chance to further establish himself as a competitive ATP player at Wimbledon. Kyrgios received a wildcard by virtue of his victory at the Nottingham-2 Challenger a week ago, as a qualifier no less. He’s a passionate, talented player with the ability to put on a show. His skill and swagger could carry him into the second week after upsets over Frenchmen Richard Gasquet and Gael Monfils before a possible meeting with Rafael Nadal.

4: Gilles Muller

The big-serving veteran has dominated at the Challenger level after coming back from injury, and he has built his ranking back up to a near-ATP level. Muller qualified here and now boasts a 41-8 record on the season at all levels, including four Challenger titles. He has never made it past the third round of Wimbledon, but with his massive serve and good volleying skills he has the skill set to excel on grass. With Roger Federer likely on tap in round two, it’s unlikely that Muller will go far in the tournament. But he’s not an easy matchup for anyone, especially this season.

Feliciano Lopez

3: Feliciano Lopez

Lopez was not having a good season until his feet hit the turf. He is on a tear now, having reached the final and coming up just a point short of the title at Queen’s Club. Now the three-time Wimbledon quarterfinalist has reached the Eastbourne final as well. Lopez should have his first big test in round three against John Isner. Should he survive the top American, Stan Wawrinka and then Federer would be on tap in week two. That’s not an easy draw by any standard, but he’s a dangerous lurker right now, and we saw with Ernests Gulbis at the French Open what getting hot just before a major can do.

2: Roberto Bautista Agut

This Spaniard has had an outstanding season. Having reaching the fourth round in Australia and the third round in Paris, he has now reached his first final of the season in Den Bosch and is seeking his first ATP title. The Spaniard has had some good wins this week, including a victory over grass specialist Nicolas Mahut, and his first big test should come against defending champion Andy Murray in round three. I’m picking Murray to repeat as champion, so I don’t think that Bautista Agut will survive that match. But he could be the Scot’s toughest test early and make a good account of himself. Last year at Wimbledon, he lost an entertaining match to David Ferrer. 

Grigor Dimitrov

1: Grigor Dimitrov

Dimitrov is the only player to win titles on all three surfaces this season. He captured the title at Queen’s Club and will have a much better chance to excel at Wimbledon than at Roland Garros. Many people have discussed how his game has similarities to Federer, and that is clearly beneficial on grass, where Federer of course had his best results. Dimitrov is slated to face David Ferrer or perhaps Marcos Baghdatis in round four, and then Murray in the quarterfinals. That match would be fascinating to watch and could very well be an epic.

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5: Rafael Nadal

Rafa showed signs of back problems again at the French Open, and he unsurprisingly got sent home early in Halle against Dustin Brown. Nadal had a shock round one exit to Steve Darcis last year at Wimbledon, and he is likely to get a rematch with Lukas Rosol, who shocked him in 2012, this year. Wimbledon seems to be boom or bust for Nadal, for he has reached five finals with two titles but has also been eliminated in the first week four times in his career. This would seem to suggest thatm if he is going home, it will be early against Martin Klizan, or more likely Rosol or Ivo Karlovic. None of these players are elite, but none of them are abysmal on grass, and they could all give Rafa trouble.

4: Jerzy Janowicz

The 2013 semifinalist is an atrocious 10-14 on the season and lost his only ATP tournament match on grass this year to the Challenger-level player Pierre-Hugues Herbert in Halle. Janowicz broke a losing streak at the French Open, but that doesn’t seem to be translating to much confidence for him. His poor play this season overall gives no indication he can come anything close to repeating or bettering his semifinal showing from last year at SW19. With former champion Lleyton Hewitt as his likely round two opponent, the road should end there for him.

Milos Raonic

3: Milos Raonic

When you look at what Raonic does best, with his serve, forehand, volleying, and power game, you’d think he’d be a highly competitive player on grass. But the results haven’t backed that up, and he is just 1-4 on grass at the ATP level combined between this season and last, and just 10-11 overall on the surface going back to 2010. Raonic lost his opener in Halle this year, and he has yet to even make the third round at SW19.  

2: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

The two-time Wimbledon semifinalist lost in round two at Wimbledon last year, and expectations have to be low this year as well. Tsonga lost early at Queen’s Club to Marinko Matosevic and has not had a strong season by his standards. He has the ability to challenge the best players in the game, but he could go out early to Jurgen Melzer or Sam Querrey in the first two rounds. If not, Mikhail Youzhny or Novak Djokovic are almost certain to eliminate him in either round three or round four.

1: Stanislas Wawrinka

Wawrinka did reach the semifinals at Queen’s Club, but he was meekly eliminated by Dimitrov after beating Querrey and Matosevic. He struggled at the French Open with the pressure of being such a high seed at these tournaments. He is seeded lower at Wimbledon, but he might well go out to Isner or Lopez in round four.  Joao Sousa, Yen-Hsun Lu, or Denis Istomin will have puncher’s chances in rounds before then too. Stan has the talent, but the screws are a bit loose for him right now like the Swiss team against France in the World Cup in Brazil this week.