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Stock Watch: Men Rising and Falling Before Indian Wells

Mar 7th 2014

The next marquee event of the ATP season is upon us at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, where 18 of the top 20 players are in the field. Here is a look at five players to buy and five to sell entering this Masters 1000 tournament.

Alexandr Dolgopolov

Buy:

5) Alexandr Dolgopolov

A former top-15 player who is close to rejoining the top 30, Dolgopolov has always had a lot of talent but has struggled to consistently put together quality performances. Recently he’s played some of his best tennis in quite a while, however, reaching the finals of the Rio Open on clay and the semifinals of Acapulco on hard courts in consecutive weeks.

Dolgopolov has defeated notable opponents David Ferrer, Nicolas Almagro, Fabio Fognini and Jerzy Janowicz this year. If he wins his first match at Indian Wells, he is almost certain to get a Rio Open final rematch with Rafael Nadal in round three. Dolgopolov never has won a set from Nadal in their five meetings, three on a hard court, but there is always a chance for an upset.

4) Kevin Anderson

Anderson has reached consecutive ATP finals on hard courts in Delray Beach and Acapulco. Although he lost both of those finals, he continues to prove why he is a solid hard-court competitor with a big serve and a good forehand that can defeat many a talented player.

Anderson should survive his opener in a soft section in the draw, and he would be the favorite against any of his possible third-round opponents:  Mikhail Youzhny, Donald Young or Michael Russell.  A fourth-round meeting against Stanislas Wawrinka looms. While Anderson is 0-3 in his career against Wawrinka, reaching the round of 16 still would be a good result.

3) Kei Nishikori

Although he has dropped out of the top 20, Nishikori is 12-3 on the year and playing some great tennis overall, so the ranking recession is a bit deceiving. He defended his title in Memphis, played well in Davis Cup, reached the semifinals in Brisbane, and scored a second-week appearance at the Australian Open. With losses to Lleyton Hewitt and Nadal, two very solid players, and a retirement due to fatigue in Delray Beach, he hasn’t had any “bad” losses.

His draw should run him right into Roger Federer in the round of 16. Nishikori has nobody more dangerous than Tommy Haas in the first few rounds, so he’s the clear favorite in his section and could perhaps upset Federer, who is also in strong form himself.

Marin Cilic

2) Marin Cilic

Cilic has been in the best form of any man outside the top 10 this season. With a greatly improved serve, he has been a man on a mission to redeem himself and fulfill his potential. He has compiled an 18-4 record this season with two small titles and an ATP 500 final in Rotterdam. Of his 14 wins after the Australian Open, Cilic has dropped a set in just two of them. His most impressive victories have come against Haas, Grigor Dimitrov, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Andy Murray and John Isner.

Cilic should be a favorite to advance to a fourth-round meeting with Novak Djokovic, where he will be a big underdog in view of his winless career record against the Serb. But you never know what Cilic 2.0 will produce.

1) Grigor Dimitrov

After winning in Acapulco last week, Dimitrov rose to a career-high ranking of No. 16. He is 11-3 this year, having started to transition into an elite ATP player who can compete with and beat the best. Along with that Acapulco title, he reached the quarterfinals in Melbourne, where he lost to Nadal, and he has recorded notable wins over Milos Raonic, Ernests Gulbis and Murray this year.

Dimitrov should meet Gulbis for the third time this year in the third round. Gulbis defeated him in Rotterdam in straight sets, but Dimitrov won a very entertaining three-setter against the Latvian in Acapulco. If he repeats that victory, Tomas Berdych likely looms in the round of 16. Berdych has been in great form this year, but Dimitrov has won both of their previous meetings. One of them was a three-set win in Miami near this time two years ago. If Dimitrov can score another upset over Berdych, a weak section opens the possibility of a semifinal run for the Bulgarian.

Andy Murray

Sell:

5) Andy Murray

Murray has yet to reach an ATP final this year in four tournaments entered. While he is 12-4, he has losses to Florian Mayer, Dimitrov and Cilic, all of whom are normally players he would beat at peak form. Murray hasn’t been the same yet since his back surgery, but his coach Ivan Lendl is still pleased with his progress. He should at least reach the round of 16 given the draw, but a likely encounter with Jerzy Janowicz or Milos Raonic at that stage could halt him. If not, Nadal likely will eliminate him in the quarterfinals.

4) Tommy Haas

Haas is another man who has been playing below his level this year and still hasn’t found his feet. He is just 7-6 in 2014 with two retirements, including in his last outing in Sao Paulo, and losses to Jack Sock and Steve Johnson. Age is likely catching up to the 35-year-old German. Even if he survives his first match, Nishikori should dispatch him in round three.

3) John Isner

The top American is a rather deceiving 7-3 this season as he has again struggled to stay healthy. Isner has dropped six sets in his seven wins, all in the best-of-three format, most of them not coming against the strongest of competition. He has lost two straight matches going into Indian Wells, and an expected third-round meeting against Philipp Kohlschreiber looms large. Isner has as 3-2 hard court record against the German, but both of those losses came at the US Open. Kohlschreiber is in strong form, and he should send the top American favorite home earlier than he would like.

2) Tommy Robredo

Another veteran who hasn’t been quite as good this year, Robredo is 8-4 with losses to Leonardo Mayer, Fabio Fognini and Pablo Andujar, all on clay. His form on hard courts is a bit hard to judge as he only has played the Australian Open on the surface, reaching the round of 16. Robredo is another player set up to be bounced earlier than his seeding suggests, most likely by Cilic in round three.

Juan Martin del Potro

1) Juan Martin del Potro

Del Potro retired in tears in Dubai as his wrist troubles continue to be a recurring problem that is undermining his career. At Indian Wells, he is playing both singles and doubles to everyone’s surprise. Instead of having surgery that some feel may be necessary, del Potro will face Feliciano Lopez or Dudi Sela in round two. He likely will lose there, although he has a weak section. If he is somehow healthy, last year’s Indian Wells finalist could reach a quarterfinal against Djokovic, but that seems improbable in his condition.