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Stock Watch: Men Rising and Falling Before Australian Open

Jan 9th 2014

The excitement and energy of the 2014 Australian Open is on its way.  That means that it’s time to take a look at which men (outside the usual suspects) are looking strong headed into Melbourne, and who has yet to find their form in this early part of the season. Here is a look at five men whose stock you should buy, and five whose stock you might want to sell.

Gael Monfils

Buy:

1) Gael Monfils

Monfils has always been known as an extremely talented player but a bit of an underachiever, who has been hobbled by injury problems and poor tactical court positioning.  In his run to the Doha final, however, he played an exciting brand of tennis that can beat almost any player on tour. Gael pulled out of Auckland citing fatigue, but that was understandable after a three-set final in Doha that he lost to Rafael Nadal. He still should be rested and healthy going into Melbourne, so he could make a deep run with the right draw and an aggressive approach to his acrobatic brand of tennis

2) Alexandr Dolgopolov

In a new year, a new Dolgo is what his fans are hoping. After a rough 2013 season when he dropped in the rankings and suffered strings of early exits for most of the season, Dolgopolov seems to be returning to his former top-20 form this January. He pushed David Ferrer to three sets in Doha and upset Jerzy Janowicz in Sydney, where he is currently in the quarterfinals with a match against Bernard Tomic ahead. Dolgopolov suffers from Gilbert’s Syndrome, and sometimes his focus and tactics seem questionable, but he can fill up highlight reels with amazing shots and quick movement when things are clicking. None of the top seeds in Melbourne will want the Ukrainian to be an early opponent.

3) Lleyton Hewitt

Rusty won his first title in three and a half years in Brisbane last week, where he beat former nemesis Roger Federer in a three-set final. The Aussie also scored wins over reputable players Feliciano Lopez and Kei Nishikori at that tournament.  The home fans will be behind him in Melbourne, and he has plenty of experience and wits to exploit.  If his seemingly good health holds, Hewitt can beguile a lot of opponents and perhaps reach the second week of the Australian Open.

4) Stanislas Wawrinka

Wawrinka was the best player in the field at Chennai, and he delivered upon his favorable draw by capturing the title. Stan had a career year in 2013, and that started last year with a great run to the fourth round in Melbourne.  He is also a former quarterfinalist at the Australian Open and reached the US Open semifinals in his last appearance at a major. Many now consider him the top Swiss player at the moment, having overtaken Roger Federer.

5) Marinko Matosevic

Matosevic has never won a main-draw match at any major, sporting an abysmal 0-11 record in his career. However, he has broken a habit of struggling in the Australian ATP events, reaching the quarterfinals in Brisbane and Sydney. At those tournaments, Matosevic defeated a quartet of solid veterans in Julien Benneteau, Sam Querrey, Florian Mayer, and Andreas Seppi. Outside Hewitt, Matosevic is the best hope for the Aussies at their home slam.

Tommy Haas

Sell:

1) Tommy Haas

The veteran German-American is an inspiration to older tennis players everywhere after a rejuvenated year-plus of tennis recently.  But he looked sluggish in falling to Jack Sock at Auckland, his only pre-Australian Open tournament.  Haas seemed to struggle in the heat and made too many groundstroke errors to compete. He can still be dangerous in Melbourne, where he will be a top-15 seed, but time will tell if the Auckland showing is the sign of a decline or just a blip on the radar.

2) Jerzy Janowicz

Janowicz pulled out of the Hopman Cup with injury issues and then was routed by Dolgopolov in Sydney, where he held the No. 2 seed. He suffered a notable meltdown in the first week of Melbourne last year, and he could be due for another despite his obvious talents and breakthrough potential.

3) Kevin Anderson

The tall South African had a great start to 2013 but slumped late in the year. That trend seems to be continuing into 2014, when he lost his only match so far to Steve Johnson in Auckland. Anderson will be seeded in Melbourne, since he is a top-25 player, and with his powerful serve/forehand combinations he can do damage on hard courts  But first he must find a game that he has not shown in months.

4) Benoit Paire

Paire was a seeded player in two straight ATP events, Chennai and Auckland, but he won just one total match while losing to Marcel Granollers and Roberto Bautista Agut.  Those Spaniards are quality but not elite opponents whom the Frenchman was favored to defeat. Paire has talent, but his focus and motivation will be questioned until he compiles more consistent results.

5) Gilles Simon

Simon lost in straights to Marius Copil in his Brisbane opener before playing the Kooyong Classic exhibition this week. The top-20 counterpunching Frenchman struggled at the end of 2013, going just 1-3 in the month of October. After reaching the round of 16 at the Australian Open last year, the pressure is on him to keep up his ranking by defending those points.