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Stock Watch: ATP Stars Rising, Falling Before Toronto

Aug 4th 2014

The first of two ATP Masters 1000 events during the Emirates US Open Series starts Monday with the Rogers Cup in Toronto. Here is a look at some top names to buy and sell before the tournament.

Buy:

Roberto Bautista Agut

The Spaniard won his second title of the season four weeks ago in Stuttgart, and he has had a tremendous season, his ranking now hovering near the top 15. With a solid 12-6 hard-court mark on the season thus far, and wins over top names Juan Martin del Potro and Tomas Berdych on hard courts, he’s earned his keep this season and now seeks to do even more this summer in the US Open Series. With a draw that would likely have Bautista Agut meet the out-of-form Berdych in round 3, and the tired Milos Raonic (or Ernests Gulbis) in the quarterfinals, the case could be made for him to reach his second Masters 1000 semifinal of the season. (He also made the semifinals in Madrid on clay.)

Marin Cilic

Marin Cilic

His 11-5 record on hard courts this year is also exemplary, and he has consistently been able to be a multi-match winner in the tournaments where he has participated. Cilic will be a strong favorite to reach the third round and do battle with Roger Federer at that stage. While he is unlikely to prevail in that contest, Federer will likely not be pleased to see Cilic as his second match of the tournament. Should he upset Federer, a semifinal or better is also a possibility for the top Croat.

Donald Young

He reached his first ATP semifinal in three years in Washington, D. C., and the American who has always been on the cusp of being a solid competitor, only to see his ranking slip repeatedly, will have a chance to surprise some more fans at the Rogers Cup. He is likely to get a stiff test with Grigor Dimitrov as his round 2 opponent, but Dimitrov has been ill and hasn’t played a tournament in a while. Perhaps a fit and motivated Young will be able to conjure up some magic to grab the upset. He has an outside chance at the quarterfinals if he can achieve a breakthrough.

Jack Sock

Young’s countryman, who gets a wild card this week, also has had a strong US Open Series thus far. Sock rose to the occasion on home soil in both Newport and Atlanta to reach the semifinals, and he has a notable win over John Isner in Newport. He lost to eventual champion Milos Raonic in a pair of tiebreaks in Washington, and right away he will have a shot at revenge, for Raonic is his slated round 2 opponent if he defeats Jurgen Melzer.

Sock and Raonic have always played competitive matches, and both players have wins in their head-to-head matchup. Raonic is likely to be at least somewhat fatigued after a deep run last week. Sock could catch him below his usual level and get himself into the third round, where the quarterfinals or better could be where he eventually ends up when his week ends. Sock has been talked about as a promising young American for some time, and he is putting up some of the best results of his career this summer. 

Bernard Tomic

Bernard Tomic

Tomic won his first ATP tournament away from home soil last month in Bogota. While he exited in round 2 in Washington, he qualified for the main draw here with impressive form. His main obstacle to success is likely to be his tough draw, which features big server Ivo Karlovic, whom he defeated in the Bogota final, and possible matchups with the in-form Richard Gasquet or Vasek Pospisil and Andy Murray in rounds 2 and 3. Should he survive that gauntlet, world No. 1 Novak Djokovic is almost certain to be next in the quarterfinals.

That said, Tomic has always had the talent to be a top-10 player, and his attitude and work ethic seems improved after wandering in the wilderness for a while. A tough draw like this is the perfect opportunity for him to prove to himself and to his sport that he is going to be a force to be reckoned with on the tour and he is here to stay at the ATP level this time.

Sell:

Kevin Anderson

Anderson has disappointed in consecutive weeks on hard courts, and he could do so again at the Rogers Cup. The big serving South African lost his first match in Atlanta in an upset, and lost to Young in Washington. Promising young player Thanasi Kokkinakis, a qualifier, will be his first opponent. Should he win, moreover, he is still likely to be dispatched by round 3 by Stan Wawrinka. Anderson relies almost entirely on holding his serve and winning tiebreaks to win matches. While that results in deep runs often for the South African, it places a lot of pressure on him if opponents return reasonably well.

Feliciano Lopez

The veteran lefty Spaniard had a fantastic grass season, but he’s cooled off a lot in his past two tournaments, and he was shocked by journeyman Victor Estrella in DC last week. Given his first opponent is the in-form Bautista Agut, Lopez appears due for another disappointing round 1 exit and a losing streak that will reach three matches.

Philipp Kohlschreiber

The top German has had a disappointing season by his recent standards. Between playing his first hard-court tournament since Miami, and the fact he is on a two-match losing streak with an opening match exit in Kitzbuhel included, Kohlschreiber likely isn’t prepared to put up a good result in Toronto. He actually has a reasonable draw with fellow struggling player Tommy Robredo first, and the tired Dominic Thiem or the out-of-form and possibly injured Gilles Simon in round 2. But Dimitrov or Young should send him home in the third round, and he is unlikely to make noise this summer.

David Ferrer

David Ferrer

Ferrer is almost assured to have fewer wins and more losses this season than any of his previous four seasons on tour, and he seems to be hitting a wall at this point in his career. His tide as a player is receding with just one title and 14 losses this season thus far. Players who have defeated him this year include journeymen Leonardo Mayer, Andrey Kuznetsov, Yen-Hsun Lu, Teymuraz Gabashvili, and Daniel Brands. Given he is nursing an elbow injury according to media reports, along with previously being unceremoniously dispatched by journeyman Alex Bogomolov at the Rogers Cup last season, Ferrer could lose his first match in round 2, or more likely against probable opponent John Isner in round 3.

Tomas Berdych

Another struggling top-10 player, he lost to Vasek Pospisil as the top seed in Washington and hasn’t reached a semifinal or better since before the French Open. Berdych had a streak of strong play this season that came on hard courts, and he is likely happy to return to the surface where he has had some of the best results of his career, but he should lose in the quarterfinals or before at the Rogers Cup this season.  Mental toughness has always been a drawback for Berdych and he appears to be suffering the effects of that shortcoming again.