The Cold War may be over, but the women’s final at the Australian Open will pit an American against a Russian. Semifinal day asks the question:  which American, and which Russian?

Maria Sharapova versus Ekaterina Makarova

There are not many guarantees at a Grand Slam, and this year’s Australian Open has definitely proved that.  But Maria Sharapova has lived up to her billing as a heavy favorite at this event, and she will take on fellow Russian Ekaterina Makarova in the semifinals for the right to advance to the Australian Open final. 

Most fans and sports analysts have probably already penciled Sharapova into the final.  She is overwhelmingly the favored player to get through this encounter, and with good reason.  Simply put, this match is in Sharapova’s hands.  She has the bigger serve, and her groundstrokes are far more penetrating.  And because she naturally starts from a better position to control the rallies, her game plan is extremely straightforward.  She need only play within herself to keep the double fault and unforced error counts down, and that should see her across the finish line.

Things are more complicated for Makarova.  She does do some things better than Sharapova.  For example, she is quicker around the court and more skilled at the net.  The problem for the 10th seed is that those advantages could become moot points.  Unless she can find a way to get Sharapova off balance or on the run with any consistency, more often than not, the former No. 1 is eventually going to get the ball by Makarova, no matter how fast she is.  Furthermore, it could prove difficult for Makarova to employ her net skills, since Sharapova’s firepower could easily keep her pinned behind the baseline.  The pressure is on the lower-ranked Russian to redline her game.  That translates into putting in a lot of first serves, going bigger on her own groundstrokes, being selective about when she ventures forward, and capitalizing on the opportunity whenever she gets a look at a Sharapova second serve.  That will be her best chance to get ahead in the rallies. 

How her game matches up against Sharapova’s is not the only conundrum for Makarova, however.  There is also the mental aspect, and that is arguably an even higher hurdle to overcome.  The pair met five times in the past, and every one of those meetings went the way of Sharapova.  Even more disheartening for Makarova is the reality that not only has she failed to win a match against her compatriot, but only once has she managed to even take a set off her.  Makarova is facing a tall order in trying to grab her first victory over Sharapova, but it becomes even taller when considering this is the semifinals of the Australian Open.  This match only represents Makarova’s second trip to this stage of a major, whereas Sharapova by contrast has five major singles titles to her name and additional finalist appearances.  When the pressure moments arrive, Sharapova has the decisive edge in knowing how best to come out on top.

Suffice it to say, virtually all of the chips are firmly stacked in Sharapova’s corner.  As mentioned earlier, however, there are few guarantees at a Grand Slam.  Makarova may put on an inspired performance of a lifetime.  Sharapova could wilt under the weight of expectations and have a bad day at the office.  Naturally, neither scenario is as likely as Sharapova routinely advancing to the championship match.

Serena Williams versus Madison Keys

In the all-American semifinal, veteran Serena Williams will take on young gun Madison Keys for a place in the final.  It is the Old Guard versus the New Guard, and coupled with it is the underlying question of whether or not the torch is finally ready to be passed.

The truth is, short of her retirement from the sport, it is hard to envision Williams willingly passing the torch.  Her play throughout the bulk of this fortnight may have been spotty, but she made a statement in her quarterfinal match against Dominika Cibulkova.  She came out sharp from the start, and for the first time this event, she looked like a woman who has won 18 major singles titles. Every facet of her game was clicking as the winners flowed from her racquet.  Clearly, she is in no mood to vacate her perch atop the rankings or relinquish the torch for American tennis.

Of the current crop of up-and-comers, however, Keys is one of the most promising candidates to wrest the torch away from Williams and stake a claim among the upper echelons of the game.  Like her compatriot, Keys possesses some very formidable weapons.  She is one of the biggest ball strikers in the sport and has a highly effective first serve.  Also encouraging is her willingness to charge the net behind her groundstrokes, so she appears well on her way to developing an all-around game.  Aged just 19, she is already evolving into a tough opponent for anyone on tour.

Keys proved to be a roadblock for Venus Williams in the quarterfinals, and most would agree that she could be a tough opponent for Serena in this semifinal.  She has the firepower to hang with her fellow American from the baseline and arguably is a little more effective at net.  Furthermore, while Williams still owns the greatest serve in the women’s game, Keys will get her share of free points with her own.  The biggest X- factor in separating these two will be movement.  Under normal circumstances, Williams would already have the advantage, but if Keys has not sufficiently recovered from the left abductor injury that has been plaguing her all tournament, it could turn into a huge advantage for Williams.

One other area where Williams already enjoys a huge advantage is in her experience at this level.  As one of the most decorated players in the history of the game, this is all familiar territory for her.  Keys, by contrast, is not only contesting her first major semifinal, but this week marked her maiden appearance in week 2 of a Grand Slam.  Here again, though, it is the injury to Keys that could have the greater psychological impact on the outcome.  It is never easy playing an injured opponent, and Williams will have to work extra hard on remaining focused on her own game and doing what she does best instead of changing her approach in response to her opponent’s injury.  As for Keys, dealing with the injury could go one of two ways.  On one hand, she may press, go for too much, and commit a plethora of unforced errors.  On the flipside, the injury may simplify things and take away some of the pressure.  If that is the case, she could swing away freely with more accuracy, which might just give her a chance at reaching her first Grand Slam final.

While Keys has a shot to go one more round, however, Williams is still the clear-cut favorite.  She has more experience and is simply physically in a better position to execute her game.  Look for Keys to put forth another solid effort like she did against Venus Williams, but unless she gets some help from Serena Williams, the No. 1 seed will advance.  The torch is not quite ready to be passed.