They were the heavy favorites coming into this event.  They were named the top two seeds of the tournament.  And now, out of the 128 women who arrived in Melbourne with dreams of Grand Slam glory, they are the only two who remain.  On Saturday, Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova will square off once again for the right to be crowned the 2015 Australian Open Women’s Singles Champion.

To some extent, it is easy to see why many people find this to be such a compelling matchup.  Williams and Sharapova are two of the most recognizable names in the sport.  They are giants of women’s tennis, who execute an exemplary brand of power tennis that is generally a cut above most of the field. 

Oddly enough, however, this is also a matchup that has often failed to live up to all of the hype surrounding it.  By her own admission, Sharapova’s past with Williams has been more that of a non-rival than as a general threat to the American’s dominance.  Only twice in 18 meetings has she managed to secure a victory over Williams, and over three-quarters of Sharapova’s losses to the American have been in straight sets.

One of the primary reasons this has been such a lopsided rivalry is that both women employ a similar style of first-strike tennis that Williams has just historically played a little bit better.  The current No. 1 has more zip on her shots and a greater margin for error on her groundstrokes, which is especially important when weather conditions are less than ideal.  Her serve is the biggest weapon in the game, and it is also technically more sound than the Russian’s, particularly off the second delivery.  In addition to that, Williams is able to cover the court more effectively.  All combined, those elements make Williams an intimidating opponent for anyone in the sport, including someone as accomplished as Sharapova.

The advantageous way in which her game matches up with Sharapova’s gives Williams the psychological high ground in this contest as well.  She is not the one tasked with mixing it up and potentially having to step out of her comfort zone, and her overwhelmingly positive record against the second seed bears this out.  Furthermore, her semifinal win over compatriot Madison Keys should also give Williams a mental boost.  That semifinal victory was key (no pun intended) for three reasons.  First, Keys played well enough to put Williams in a hole and force the veteran to dig her way out of it, which she did with flying colors.  Also, Keys is an even more powerful ball-striker than Sharapova, so unlike Sharapova’s semifinal opponent Ekaterina Makarova, Keys better prepared Williams for the pace of shot that will be on display in the championship match.  And finally, with her win over Keys, Williams is guaranteed of leaving Melbourne with the No. 1 ranking.  That achievement may not be as precious as a sixth Australian Open singles title, but it is one less factor on the line to distract Williams.

Of course, while she probably would have preferred that the top ranking still be up for grabs, there is no question that Sharapova would be more than content to leave Australia having secured her second major title Down Under.  She just has to climb a bigger mountain than Williams to do it. 

While it is a daunting task, given that she has not defeated the American in over a decade, Sharapova and her fans should take heart in the encouraging signs she has exhibited that could show she is finally ready to scale that mountain.  Her defensive skills have gone up a level as her overall movement around the court has improved.  She has shown an increased willingness to add some variety to her game, such as occasionally utilizing additional slice and finesse, and even approaching the net with a little more frequency.  This demonstrates her awareness that the onus is on her to change it up if she wants to make any inroads against Williams.  And last but certainly not least, the best thing Sharapova has going for her is her fighting spirit.  One would be hard pressed to find a player who exhibits more competitiveness and drive than the Russian.  She is a woman who stubbornly refuses to go down without a fight, and if ever there were a player capable of manufacturing belief where there is seemingly none, it is Sharapova.

It is arguably that fighting spirit inherent in Sharapova that continually gets fans excited about this matchup with Williams.  Regardless of how much history favors Williams, there is always the very legitimate chance that Sharapova will get the victory.  No one is more aware of this than Williams.  She knows she has to raise the level of her game another notch.  Anything short of perfection, and Sharapova will make her pay.  But if Williams plays her game, this meeting, like their previous 18, is hers to win or lose.