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Sharapova, Suarez Navarro Target French Open Second Week

May 28th 2015

Maria Sharapova and Carla Suárez Navarro are the only top-eight seeds in the women's draw who have not dropped a set through the first two rounds of Roland Garros. The Rome champion and runner-up will hope to stay on track for a clash in the quarterfinals in third-round action on Friday.

Maria Sharapova

Maria Sharapova vs. Samantha Stosur

A week ago, most would have barely spared this match a glance.  Based on their respective career accomplishments, it would have garnered some discussion, but there would have been little to suggest that this could be anything more than a straightforward victory for Sharapova.  The Russian had a lull in results from March through early May, but she played superbly in the weeks before and after it, including taking the title in Rome.  Contrast that with Stosur, who was not able to string together back-to-back wins this season until Madrid.  Getting over that hump may have been all she needed, though, for she went on to storm to the title in Strasbourg.  With both women finishing their Roland Garros tune-ups on a high note, they are primed to put forth a good show on Friday.

From a strategic standpoint, there is no reason why this should not be a captivating contest.  Both possess the skills to make life difficult for their opponent and secure victory.  Stosur is a powerful player, particularly off her forehand wing.  She has one of the top serves in the game and the best kick serve of anybody in the field, and she has a fair amount of variety on the backhand.  Furthermore, she is a former No. 1 doubles player with a great set of hands at the net, so she is unlikely to panic if drawn into the forecourt by one of the drop shots that Sharapova has become increasingly fond of. 

Of course, Sharapova will not be coming to the party empty-handed.  She has some of the most penetrating groundstrokes in the game, which often are used to pin opponents behind the baseline.  They have also made her drop shot more effective.  Furthermore, the Russian owns the more consistent backhand, and if she can lure Stosur into backhand exchanges, the odds will only increase in her favor.  Additionally, Sharapova should be looking to put in a good number of first serves and avoid giving away free points on the second.  The same advice goes for her return.  She wants to be aggressive off that shot, but it needs to be sharper than it has been in recent matches.  Rather than missing the return, it would be better for her in this case to play it safer to put the ball in court and make Stosur play.

Making Stosur play has paid dividends for Sharapova in the past, since the Australian is not known for always being solid between the ears.  Stosur has frequently been foiled by her own lack of self-belief.  But she does have reason to hope on Friday. She is a former US Open champion, and Roland Garros has historically been her best major.  She put herself in a position to beat Sharapova at this venue in 2014 before falling apart late in the second set, and there is no reason why she cannot flip the script this year.  It will not be easy, though.  Sharapova is a dogged competitor and the more consistent of the pair.  The Russian also has a dominant head-to-head record against Stosur, with 14 wins against just two losses.  Couple that with her two Roland Garros titles and her generally exceptional results on clay, and she is going to be one tricky puzzle for Stosur to solve.

Is Stosur capable of solving the Sharapova puzzle and adding to the rash of upsets that have hit the women's draw?  Yes.  Is it likely to happen?  Probably not.  Stosur's chances, especially if she is playing well and believes in her game, cannot be discounted.  It is just hard to envision her putting away one of the mentally toughest players in the history tennis, which means the chances are Sharapova gets out of this match, even if she is not playing at her absolute best.

Carla Suarez Navarro

Carla Suárez Navarro vs. Flavia Pennetta

Between tracking the favorites and following the upsets that have occurred over the course of the first week of Roland Garros, some players have inevitably gotten lost in the shuffle.  Two such players who have quietly made their way to the third round are Carla Suárez Navarro and Flavia Pennetta.  Neither is a bad bet to go deep in the French capital, but only one of them will have the opportunity to do so as they face each on the Friday with a berth in the round of 16 up for grabs.

Although presently the lower-ranked player of the duo, Pennetta is probably slightly better known to audiences.  The veteran Italian is a former No. 1 doubles player who very nearly quit the game a few years ago due to a niggling wrist injury.  She somehow managed to mount a comeback, however, putting together a dream semifinal run at the 2013 US Open.  She has continued to back up that feat with other noteworthy performances, such as winning the 2014 Indian Wells crown and logging solid results this season in Dubai, Indian Wells, and Marrakech.  She will be looking to continue the trend on the dirt of Roland Garros.  

Pennetta's opponent, Suárez Navarro, is someone else who will be keen to continue an upward trend.  Until recently, the Spaniard was more known for her flashy one-handed backhand than for her results.  That has changed in 2015, though, with the current No. 8 increasingly forcing people to take notice of just what she is capable of achieving.  Suarez Navarro regularly reaches the quarterfinals or better of most tournaments, and she broke new ground by making the finals of the Premier Mandatory/Five events in Miami and Rome.  It was that run in Rome that was enough to convince some that Suárez Navarro is a legitimate dark horse to be the last woman standing at Roland Garros.

Suárez Navarro is not a bad dark horse pick, but she is a long way off from hoisting the trophy, with no overwhelming guarantee that she is even going to get through her match this Friday. Suárez Navarro and Pennetta are evenly matched.  Neither woman has a big serve or overly powerful ground game, so they will be made to work for each and every point.  Pennetta is more adept at net, assuming she can get there, whereas Suárez Navarro has a skill set that allows her to find more acute angles and pull her opponent off the court.  Each woman also favors her backhand wing, and although Suárez Navarro's looks prettier and has more variety, Pennetta is going to have the confidence to go toe-to-toe with the Spaniard all day on that shot.  When it is all said and done, this contest is most apt to come down to whose forehand holds up best under pressure in the big moments.

Flavia Pennetta

Things are pretty even, too, when attempting to gauge who is mentally ready for this battle.  Pennetta enjoys the edge in this rivalry at 4-2, but they have split their two matches on clay and their two matches that occurred last year.  Suárez Navarro is currently playing better tennis, and she has typically enjoyed more success on clay than her Italian opponent.  That said, Pennetta has plenty of experience reaching the second week of a major, and as the underdog, she has the luxury of playing without the added pressure.  A savvy veteran like Pennetta could potentially take advantage of the situation if Suárez Navarro, a newcomer to the spotlight, were to crumble under the increased weight of expectations on her shoulders. Either way, this could be an entertaining see-saw match filled with long rallies and some scintillating tennis.