Tuesday women’s quarterfinals at the 2014 French Open feature two rising stars, a clay specialist, and the 2012 champion.

Maria Sharapova vs. Garbine Muguruza

The women are down to the last eight, and not surprisingly Maria Sharapova is among that pool of quarterfinalists.  As originally anticipated, she must defeat a woman with powerful groundstrokes and a big serve to advance to the semifinals.  Much to the joy of Sharapova, however, that adversary is not named Serena Williams.  Instead, it is Williams’ conqueror, Garbine Muguruza.  That Muguruza advanced in place of Williams is a huge break for Sharapova, but only time will tell if she can take advantage of it.

The Russian is heavily favored to do so.  Sharapova is a four-time Grand Slam singles champion and has a vast amount of experience in the latter rounds of majors.  Furthermore, clay has been her best surface  over the last few years, and 2014 has been no exception.  She won titles in Stuttgart and Madrid, and, outside of her last match against Samantha Stosur, she has looked virtually untouchable in Paris.

The same can hardly be said for 20-year-old Muguruza.  The Spaniard just won her maiden WTA title in Hobart earlier this year, and she made her first voyage to the second week of a major in Melbourne.  Outside of a semifinal trip on the clay courts of Marrakech, Muguruza has barely been a threat on the dirt.

But, despite the uphill battle ahead, Muguruza is in with a fighting chance to advance.  She is an aggressive baseliner, who will not hesitate to grab control of the points. As shown by her performance against Serena Williams, it is unlikely that Sharapova’s power will come as a shock to her.  Muguruza might be able to bully Sharapova around the court in a similar manner to the way she did Williams.  Furthermore, the Spaniard has a penetrating serve that should frequently put her ahead in the points on her own service games. 

As for Sharapova, she needs to remain aggressive on her first serve without sacrificing consistency to avoid giving Muguruza too many looks at a second serve or falling prey to the double faults to which she is occasionally prone.  Additionally, Sharapova should not be afraid to rely on her defense or extend the point when necessary.  She is the better mover and more apt to stand up under the pressure of an extended rally.

Another ace up Sharapova’s sleeve is her experience, making her less likely to choke in the big moment.  Of course, Muguruza surprised some when she showed no signs of nerves finishing off Williams, so perhaps she is more ready for the grand stage than she is given credit for.

Still, when all is said and done, Sharapova remains the heavy favorite in this contest.  She has the superior game and more importantly the superior experience.  But do not count out Muguruza.  She has already felled one giant, so what is one more?

Carla Suarez Navarro vs. Eugenie Bouchard

People often use the phrase, “the numbers do not lie.”  While that is often the case, it might not ring true in this quarterfinal.  Suarez Navarro is the slightly higher-ranked player, but it is Bouchard who could hold the edge.

None of this is to say that Suarez Navarro is not a decent candidate to walk away with a victory.  On the contrary, the Spaniard has put together a very respectable year thus far, and she is most at home on the clay.  She performed well heading into Roland Garros, logging a fourth-round finish in Madrid and quarterfinal showing in Rome, as well as scooping up a title in Oeiras. 

Bouchard has not been as solid as her Spanish opponent coming into Paris, but she has still done well on the dirt this season.  Aside from reaching the quarterfinals of Charleston, she also won a title in Nürnberg immediately preceding Roland Garros.  She should feel equally confident about her chances of making the semifinals in the French capital.

Neither Suarez Navarro nor Bouchard has much experience at this stage of a major, but Bouchard did make the final four in Melbourne.  That trumps the best Grand Slam results for Suarez Navarro, which were quarterfinals at the Australian and US Opens.  Additionally, while Suarez Navarro is an excellent player who has troubled more than a few of the sport’s elite, she does have a tendency to get tight.  The pressure of being the higher seed contesting a marquee match on her favorite surface could prevent her from sending her game into full flight.

If Suarez Navarro can prevent nerves from creeping into her game, her one-handed backhand is a sight to behold.  She will need that weapon to be clicking to open up the court and avoid allowing the bigger-hitting Bouchard to set up for her shots.  Furthermore, at 5’4” the Spaniard does not have the most intimidating serve, so it is imperative that she hit her spots and maintain a high first-serve percentage.  For Bouchard, it is all about playing within herself.  She has the more penetrating groundstrokes off both wings and holds the advantage in the serving department.  She will be the player making things happen over the course of the match.  If she keeps the unforced errors down, she should see herself safely through this encounter.

As is so often the case with two competitors with precious little Grand Slam experience, it comes down to who handles the situation best.  Bouchard looks better for the win, but it would not be a shocker if Suarez Navarro enjoyed a breakthrough by claiming a berth in her first major semifinal.