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Serena, Errani Face Serbian Stars in Rome Semifinals

May 16th 2014

The last marquee event before Roland Garros features five semifinalists who have held the No. 1 ranking. Could these matchups offer previews of Paris? Nick Nemeroff breaks them down, starting with the women’s semifinals.

Serena Williams

Ana Ivanovic vs. Serena Williams

In a matchup pitting two of the hardest hitters in women’s tennis, Williams leads the head-to-head 4-1. All five of the matches these two have contested have taken place on hard courts. Their most recent meeting took place in the fourth round of this year’s Australian Open. In this match, Ivanovic flipped the script of their rivalry, rallying from a set down to pull off the stunning upset.

Last week in Madrid, Serena was forced to withdraw from the tournament due to a left thigh injury before her quarterfinal match with Petra Kvitova. Until that point, she had not lost more than five games in any of the three matches that she had played, a streak that she has extended through her first three matches in Rome.

Ivanovic, the 2008 French Open champion, has had very solid showings in her last several clay tournaments. After reaching the final of Stuttgart, she reached the quarterfinals of Madrid last week before losing to Simona Halep. This week in Rome, Ivanovic recorded an outstanding victory over Maria Sharapova in the round of 16, a bit of revenge from the Stuttgart final where Sharapova took her down in a tightly fought three-set match.

Just as it was in Australia, the Ivanovic second-serve return will be the key factor in this match. The Serb understands Serena’s second serve will be the weakest shot she will see in the course of a point and must do everything in her power to take full advantage of it.

The main problem Ivanovic will have in this match is coming in with the feeling that the she needs to be aiming near or on the lines with every shot. While beating Serena typically requires nearly immaculate shot-making, there must be something said for the value of controlled aggression, even against Serena. This match will get away from Ivanovic extremely quickly if she feels as if she must decrease her margins with every shot Serena gets back into play.

Look for Serena to force Ivanovic into long spells of erratic play and reverse her Melbourne loss.

Prediction: Williams in two sets

Jelena Jankovic

Jelena Jankovic v. Sara Errani

While most were expecting a Li-Radwanska semifinal clash, Sara Errani and Jelena Jankovic had far different ideas. Errani recorded her first ever victory against Li in the quarterfinals, and Jankovic recorded only her second victory over Radwanksa.

Jankovic and Errani have split their two career meetings. They last played in the WTA Championships last fall in Istanbul, a match that Errani won in straight sets. This semifinal will be the first time that they have squared off on clay.

Neither Jankovic or Errani looked overly impressive entering this week, so both will relish this match as a wonderful opportunity to make a big final and gain tons of momentum going into the French Open. They play similar games, mechanically and stylistically. The emphasis both place on consistency should provide for drawn-out rallies, testing their patience and fitness levels.

Errani hits a kick serve on both her first and second serves, which is less vulnerable on clay than other surfaces but still presents a shot that Jankovic can attack. Look for the Italian to craft forehand-to-forehand rallies, pitting her strong wing against Jankovic’s weaker wing. Jankovic may want to vary her play and throw a stream of slice backhands into Errani’s forehand side to test her ability to tackle low balls with her extreme grip.

This should be an extremely tight match, and your guess at who will win is as good as mine.

Prediction: Jankovic in three sets