The two sisters who have defined American women’s tennis for over a decade face contrasting challenges on Day 1 of the 2014 Australian Open.

The Popcorn Match:  Venus Williams vs. Ekaterina Makarova

Thanks in large part to the fact that majors seed 32 players instead of 16, intriguing first-round matches can be hard to find.  This year’s Australian Open did deliver a potential gem of an opening match, however, with Venus Williams set to do battle with Ekaterina Makarova for a place in the second round.  There are no guarantees in live sports, but there are plenty of indications that this match should be more sizzle than fizzle.

Venus has seen her results suffer and her schedule curtailed after being diagnosed with Sjögren’s Syndrome, but she has already enjoyed a strong start to 2014.  After going the distance in her opening matches, she reached the final in Auckland where she eventually fell in three sets to Ana Ivanovic.  Following that run, which saw her rise from No. 47 to No. 38 in the rankings, Venus opted to pull out of Hobart in order to be refreshed in time for Melbourne.  This must be the most positive that she has felt heading into a major for some time.

The same cannot be said for her opponent, Ekaterina Makarova.  She, too, played only one warm-up event heading into the Australian Open, opting to try her luck in Sydney this past week. Things looked promising for the Russian at the start after she scored an impressive win over world No. 8 Jelena Jankovic in two routine sets.  Unfortunately, things quickly went south as Makarova was bounced out of the tournament by Carla Suarez Navarro in the very next round. 

Things look even bleaker for Makarova heading into her opening match in Melbourne when one considers that she is 0-2 against Venus.  In fact, she has yet to take a set off of the American, losing when the two met at Wimbledon in 2010 and at Rome in 2012.  And yet Makarova also has reason to feel good about her odds simply because this third meeting between the two will take place at the Australian Open. 

The Australian Open has been the Russian’s most successful major in singles by a wide margin.  And, unlike her opponent, Makarova has reached the second week at this event for three straight years, including quarterfinal appearances in the last two.  She has developed a reputation as a bit of a giant-killer in Melbourne with no win bigger than her straight-sets victory over Serena Williams in the round of 16 in 2012.  Those memories and good vibes could go a long way towards helping Makarova get on the board in her head-to-head against Venus Williams.

The impact that this past history and these memories have on the mental side of the game could prove the deciding factor in this contest, for there is little to choose between the two when it comes to the actual physical play of the match.  Williams likely will hit bigger off the ground and off the serve, but in recent years her serve and forehand in particular have become increasingly inconsistent.  Furthermore, the American tends to tire more quickly, and though she is still quick, she has slowed, lessening or erasing any edge that she might have previously held in the movement department.  Additionally, Makarova is a lefty.  Lefties always present a unique challenge to right-handed opposition, and that challenge could be compounded when coupled with any first-round nerves Williams may be battling.

This is a match that represents a great opportunity for both players to kick off a strong run in Melbourne, and it is also a match that should deliver on all the potential drama and excitement that history indicates that it can.

The Barometer Match:  Serena Williams vs. Ashleigh Barty

By contrast, it is unlikely that the younger Williams sister will experience great drama or excitement in her opening encounter.

Any professional Australian tennis player dreams of playing a night match under the lights of Rod Laver Arena.  For 17-year-old Ashleigh Barty, that dream will come true on the opening night of this year’s Australian Open.  Unfortunately for her, that dream could become a nightmare, as she finds herself pitted against the WTA’s most decorated active player, Serena Williams.  The odds are heavily stacked in the American’s corner.

The list of accomplishments achieved by Serena Williams is well known, but the world No. 1 will not be thinking of what she has done in the past.  After enduring disappointing losses the last couple of years in Melbourne, Serena will be exceptionally keen to secure her sixth Australian Open singles crown and 18th major singles title overall.  It is a mission that few would bet against her completing.

When Williams is playing at her best, there are few that can even hang with her, let alone hope to defeat her.  She is able to hit the majority of her competition off the court with powerful ground strokes off both wings, and a booming serve garners more than her fair share of free points.  Furthermore, under the tutelage of Patrick Mouratoglou, Williams has become exceptionally consistent off the ground.  Between her competitive drive and wealth of experience, finally, she is bound to command an intimidating presence to even the most seasoned of competitors.

Ashleigh Barty is hardly a seasoned competitor.  At just 17, she has played very few WTA-level singles matches. Her lack of singles play does not translate to a lack of big match experience, however.  The young Australian is currently ranked No. 12 in doubles, thanks to reaching three doubles finals at majors last year with countrywoman Casey Dellacqua.  The pair also secured their first WTA doubles title together last year at Birmingham. 

Before turning professional, Barty enjoyed plenty of success at the junior level as well, reaching a singles ranking of No. 2 and winning the Wimbledon Junior Girls’ title in 2011.  A big part of her early success stems from her ability to make up for what she lacks in stature by infusing a wide variety of shots into her arsenal of tricks.  In this year’s Brisbane main draw, she defeated veteran Daniela Hantuchova before having to withdraw from her match against Maria Sharapova.

Nobody expects Barty and her variety of shots to overly trouble Williams.  Agnieszka Radwanska’s court craft and guile bothered the American two years ago at Wimbledon, but Williams still defeated an opponent far more dangerous than Barty.  While this match will likely be one-way traffic, it still could provide some clues as to what we can expect from both players.

For Barty, Monday’s match is about the bigger picture.  It will give her valuable experience playing against the elite in the sport on a grand stage.  If she is able to comport herself respectably, it could bode well for her future.  For Williams, the match could be a good barometer for where she is with her game at the year’s first major.  She will not only have to contend with first-round jitters, but she will have to do so against a home crowd favorite.  

If Serena looks vulnerable, the rest of the field may gain hope.  If she looks devastatingly sharp straight out of the gates, woe to everyone else.