All of the top three seeds have fallen from the Australian Open women’s draw, but the last four survivors have fought hard to earn their opportunities.  Those opportunities are golden indeed.

The Veteran and the Upstart: Li Na vs. Eugenie Bouchard

Sometimes dreams do come true.  That could be a phrase going through the minds of both women as they take the court in their semifinal match.  In the case of Li, she arguably has been handed a dream semifinal opponent.  Instead of an imposing Serena Williams or a red-hot Ana Ivanovic, she faces the inexperienced Bouchard.  For Bouchard, this fairytale run marks her breakout performance at a major, which she can use as a springboard for bigger and better things down the road.  And for both women, this semifinal clash provides them with a favorable look at making the final and perhaps even becoming an Australian Open champion.

Between the two, the odds favor Li coming out on top, for she is so much more experienced than Bouchard.  Li also has consistently performed well in Melbourne, reaching the final in two of the last three years.  She also knows what it means to win a major after being crowned Roland Garros champion in 2011.  Bouchard cannot hold a candle to Li in this department.  She had already posted her best result in a slam by reaching the quarterfinals here, so for her to make the semifinals by coming from a set down to defeat Ivanovic – Serena’s nemesis – is a phenomenal effort.  Having never been in this situation before, the gravity of the occasion may eventually hit her.

In addition to having more experience than the Canadian teenager, Li also leads their head-to-head.  Granted, the two have only met the one time at the Montreal Premier Five event in 2012.  Bouchard has improved in leaps and bounds in the two years since that encounter, and losing a single clash is not nearly as demoralizing as losing several matches to the same opponent.  But the bottom line is that it was still a win for Li, and it was a victory that came on a hard court, and in straight sets no less.  It may not count for much, but it could still count for something if things get tight.

If these facts were not enough to make Li confident about her chances of defeating Bouchard and advancing to the final, the way she is playing should.  That is not to say that Bouchard is playing poorly by any stretch.  On the contrary, she has exhibited a beautiful ability to play an all-court game and has improved both her offense and defense from the back of the court.  She has also shown herself to be mentally tough, as evidenced by the way she came back against crowd favorites in her last two rounds.  The problem for her is that Li is not only winning right now, but she is barely losing games.  The woman from China has been playing with house money and made the most of it since coming back from match point down in the third round against Lucie Safarova.  In her last two matches against Ekaterina Makarova and Flavia Pennetta, respectively, she has dropped a grand total of just six games. 

Of course, one of the intriguing things about live sports is that, no matter what has happened in the past, it does not dictate what happens in the present.  Unquestionably, Li is the one favored to continue her journey, but do not count out Bouchard.  This is women’s tennis, and as has been the case this entire tournament, anything can happen.

Steady and Stunning: Agnieszka Radwanska vs. Dominika Cibulkova

The semifinal of the bottom half of the draw is set, and it is not the anticipated matchup of Victoria Azarenka against Maria Sharapova.  These women may not be the headliners that Azarenka and Sharapova are, but they are two players with a lot of game, a lot of heart, and no less ability of producing something memorable in their semifinal match.

If the women’s draw has taught us anything at this year’s Australian Open, it would be that it is dangerous to call someone a favorite.  That said, Radwanska has a definite edge in this semifinal against Cibulkova.  Their head-to-head illustrates that quite clearly, with the Pole leading it comfortably 5-1.  Four of those five wins came in straight sets, and she has won four sets 6-0, including a victory over Cibulkova in Sydney last year when she did not lose a single game.

With this kind of history against Radwanska, Cibulkova may be disappointed that she is not instead facing the higher-ranked Azarenka in the semifinals.  She also has a poor record against Azarenka, but a number of her matches against the Belarusian were three-set affairs.  That is because she knows what to expect with Azarenka, can trade ground strokes with her, and Azarenka will give her more unforced errors. 

This is simply not the case with Radwanska.  Against the Pole, Cibulkova will have her opportunities to dictate the rallies, but Radwanska’s overall consistency and ability to create a wide variety of shots could spell trouble for a player who is known to be streaky.  For a reminder of that sobering fact, look no further than the way Radwanska picked apart an errant Azarenka in the first and third sets of their quarterfinal match, losing a total of a single game.

Whether or not Radwanska and Cibulkova can produce the same kind of stellar tennis that brought them so much success in the quarterfinals is another story. It is difficult to gauge how well they will manage their nerves on this occasion.  Having reached the final of Wimbledon two years ago, Radwanska has slightly more experience at this level, but neither woman has ventured this far in Melbourne.  Furthermore, with so many of the big hitters and tournament favorites out, both women know that they may never be presented with a better opportunity to win their first major.  That kind of knowledge can add even more pressure, so it will be interesting to see if they shy away from the moment or step up to the challenge.