Two of the three remaining major champions in the Roland Garros women’s draw will meet on Monday for a berth in a French Open quarterfinal.

Maria Sharapova vs. Samantha Stosur

The business end of Roland Garros is fast approaching, which means the finish line and that coveted trophy are growing larger in sight.  Maria Sharapova and Samantha Stosur know what it is like to be the last woman standing at the end of a major, and both will be keen to capitalize on their opportunity to relish that feeling once again.

Based on current form, Sharapova looks the more likely of the pair to continue her journey.  She picked up titles in Stuttgart and Madrid before coming to Roland Garros. Outside the defeat that Ana Ivanovic inflicted on her in Rome, Serena Williams – who is already out of this tournament – has been the only woman to beat Sharapova on the dirt over the last three seasons.  In contrast, Stosur has experienced plenty of struggles in 2014.  After her opening event in Hobart, the Aussie has failed to advance beyond the round of 16 at any tournament, which makes her current run in Paris a pleasant surprise.

The odds also favor Sharapova when looking at her past results against Stosur.  The two have played on 15 occasions, and only twice has Stosur managed to walk away with a victory.  Furthermore, the bulk of their matches have come in routine straight sets for the Russian, including a few weeks ago in Madrid.  That shared history would beg the question as to whether or not Stosur stands a prayer in their upcoming encounter.

Certainly Stosur will have her work cut out for her, but she should have her chances.  In fact, it is somewhat surprising that her record against Sharapova is so lopsided.  She possesses a better serve, although her high-bouncing kick serve is less effective against the towering Russian than against many other opponents.  Stosur should be able to control points off her forehand wing in a similar manner to Sharapova.  The Aussie is the superior net player, but she must choose wisely as to when to move into the forecourt.  Sharapova simply needs to continue to play aggressive, first-strike tennis.  She has the better and more consistent backhand, the more penetrating groundstrokes, and far more experience at this elite level.

Sharapova’s big-match experience could be the huge factor in this match.  Stosur does not have the best track record when it comes to managing nerves, whereas Sharapova is about as solid as they come.  Additionally, with all of the upsets, this Roland Garros is starting to shape up a lot like it did in 2012 when Sharapova won her first title here, so that ought to buoy the Russian’s spirits.  She is definitely the favorite to advance, but do not be surprised if Stosur finds a way to turn the tables and continue the string of upsets here at Roland Garros.

Angelique Kerber vs. Eugenie Bouchard

Part of rising up the ranks in tennis is seizing an advantageous moment when it presents itself.  One of those moments has arrived for Angelique Kerber and Eugenie Bouchard.  The question is which woman will step up and take it.

There is very little to choose between the two.  Kerber is the higher-ranked player, who has more matches under her belt on this grand stage, but Bouchard is not lacking in experience.  The young Canadian reached her first major semifinal at this year’s Australian Open.  Based on current form, Bouchard is the more likely of the duo to find herself in the quarterfinals.  She came to Paris on the back of winning her first singles title in Nürnberg, whereas Kerber lost her opening matches in Stuttgart, Madrid, and Rome before finally stopping the bleeding in Nürnberg.

The head-to-head between these two also offers few clues as to who might emerge victorious.  They have met only once, and that was at last year’s US Open.  Kerber won that match, but it went three sets.  It is also fair to say that Bouchard has vastly grown as a player in the months that have passed since that initial encounter.

While past history may not yield much insight, their game styles might.  Bouchard is the bigger hitter of the two.  Kerber is also capable of going big, but the German has a tendency to back off and sometimes, to her own detriment, rely too much on her defensive skills.  Kerber could very well make Bouchard hit a lot of balls, and if the Canadian is off her game, that might be enough to get the job done.  But Bouchard will be the player making things happen out there, and in a match of this magnitude, it is always best to be in control of your own destiny.

The final question is how each woman mentally copes with this match.  Here again, Bouchard enjoys the advantage.  She was already psychologically in a good place when she arrived in Paris, while Kerber has a history of going off the boil early.  The German is unlikely to tank, but it is more imperative for her to get off to a good start than it is for Bouchard.  Additionally, both will be fully aware that the winner of this contest faces either Carla Suarez Navarro or Ajla Tomljanovic, which translates into an excellent chance of advancing to the semifinals.  With that in the back of their minds, each will need to work hard to remain focused on the match at hand and resist the temptation to think too far ahead.   

In the end, this match should ultimately tip in favor of Bouchard.  Then again, this has been such a topsy-turvy Roland Garros that what should be and what actually is are often two different things.  Bouchard may continue her ascendancy, or Kerber may once again remind everyone of why she was once a top-five player.  Either way, this has the potential to be a thriller.