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Roland Garros WTA Day 4 Preview: Bouchard, Kerber

May 27th 2014

The second round of women’s action at the 2014 French Open kicks off on Wednesday as two former Grand Slam semifinalists face dangerous shot-makers.

Eugenie Bouchard

Eugenie Bouchard vs. Julia Goerges

To paraphrase a metaphor from Forrest Gump, “Sometimes a tennis match is like a box of chocolates.  You never know what you are going to get.”  That is certainly the case in the match that pits Eugenie Bouchard against Julia Goerges.  It is an encounter that could equally sizzle or fizzle, and the greater onus is on Goerges to determine which direction this match ultimately goes.

In a nutshell, Julia Goerges is an enigma.  She is a talented player who has struggled to put it all together consistently.  She has had a particularly rough time of late, occasionally failing to even get through the qualifying of a tournament.  As a result, she arrived at Roland Garros with a lowly ranking of No. 107.  But that ranking is not representative of the kind of tennis she is capable of producing.  She triumphed at the prestigious Stuttgart tournament in 2011, mopped the court with Agniezska Radwanska in London at the 2012 Olympic Games, and has been ranked as high as No. 15.  Unfortunately for Goerges, the level of tennis that helped her achieve those feats eludes her on a regular basis these days.

Eugenie Bouchard had been plagued by similar problems in her young career, but she appears to be finding more consistency in her game in recent months.  She had her first major breakthrough at the Australian Open this season by reaching the semifinals, and she has also shown some skills on the dirt this spring.  In addition to a semifinal showing in Charleston, she just scooped up her maiden singles title at Nürnberg.  Presently ranked a career-high No. 16, this fast-rising Canadian comes into this match riding a wave of confidence.

Bouchard can further take comfort in how her game matches up against Goerges.  If Goerges brings her best, she will be able to take it to the young Canadian on multiple occasions, but Bouchard also possesses a big game capable of dictating play.  Furthermore, Bouchard moves better and has more versatility in her arsenal.  But the biggest advantage in Bouchard’s corner is her mental strength in comparison to that of Goerges.  When things go wrong for the German, the wheels have a tendency to come off quickly.  If Goerges hopes to make a match of this, it she must stay close early.

In the end, this should be a good match for Bouchard to continue building on her recent progress, but hopefully Goerges can provide some resistance.  It would be good for Bouchard to gain more experience dealing with the pressure that comes with being a seed at a major.  Whether or not that happens remains to be seen. 

Angelique Kerber

Angelique Kerber vs. Varvara Lepchenko

The Grand Slams seed 32 players, but as every fan (and player) knows, that seeding rarely holds up over the course of an event.  Some seeds are just ripe for an upset.  That is a sentiment that may very well be going through the mind of Varvara Lepchenko as she takes to the court against No. 8 seed, Angelique Kerber.

It might not seem fair to suggest that Angelique Kerber has been somewhat of a disappointment over the last year.  She is currently ranked an outstanding No. 9, which is only four back from her career-high ranking of No. 5.  But for a woman who is a former semifinalist at both the US Open and Wimbledon, Kerber has thrown in too many poor performances.  A prime example can be found in her lead up to Roland Garros, where she lost her opening matches in Stuttgart, Madrid, and Rome. 

No doubt Varvara Lepchenko will be keenly aware of Kerber’s subpar run of late, which should feed her belief that she can pull off another upset at Roland Garros.  Lepchenko may be ranked No. 58, but she has played well enough in the past to garner a top-20 ranking.  She has also begun to enjoy more success at the tour level in recent months, reaching the round of 16 in Sydney, Miami, and Rome.  She also should be enjoying some positive vibes in Paris, for Roland Garros has traditionally been her best slam.

With both women playing similar games, this is a match that is bound to come down to who is willing to take the initiative when the opportunity presents itself, and who can hold up the best mentally in what could turn into a very taxing affair.  And when it comes to the mental side of things, odds favor Lepchenko.  The American holds a 4-1 record against her higher-ranked opponent, so she knows how to defeat Kerber.  Interestingly enough, however, Kerber’s lone win came at this venue last season.

This match is a tossup, but Lepchenko has a realistic shot of avenging that lone loss from 2013.  It would be good for the American to get the upseta and start rebuilding her ranking.  On the other hand, Kerber has shown she is more than capable of going deep at a major, so perhaps she is poised to do that here in Paris.  Either way, this has the makings of a long contest filled with grueling rallies and plenty of drama.