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Roland Garros WTA Day 2 Preview: Halep, Muguruza

May 26th 2015

Last year's Roland Garros runner-up faces a woman who conquered her at a major last year, while two promising European phenoms vie for a trip to the third round in Paris.

Simona Halep versus Mirjana Lucic Baroni

Theoretically, every player begins a match with a blank slate.  Players are not rewarded for a dominant performance in the prior round nor penalized for narrowly escaping a loss.  Likewise, players do not start from an advantageous position simply because they enjoy a winning record against their particular opponent.  Yet despite no obvious signs of help or hindrance, the notion of a blank slate can be an illusion.  Sometimes a shared history between two competitors makes its presence felt, and it is exactly that shared history that has more than a few people keeping an eye on the match featuring Simona Halep and Mirjana Lucic-Baroni.

Simona Halep

The shared history here relates to Lucic-Baroni's victory over Halep in their only prior meeting, which came at last year's US Open.  If not for the Croat's victory, most would look at this second-round match as a probable easy win for Halep.  The Romanian is presently ranked No. 3 in the world and barely missed securing the second seed for this event.  She has bagged three titles already this season, including her first Premier Mandatory crown at Indian Wells.  She also reached the semifinals of Miami, as well as of the prestigious clay events in Stuttgart and Rome.  Couple that with the fact that she enjoyed a breakthrough here by reaching the Roland Garros final last season, and there are many who would pick Halep to be the contender to emerge with the win in this contest.

It is safe to say that Lucic-Baroni's results do not elicit the same level of confidence as Halep's.  The highlight of the Croat's 2015 season to date was her quarterfinal showing in Acapulco.  But while her individual results may not hold a candle to the Romanian's, her story is no less inspiring.  Most are familiar with her past history as a teenage phenom who tragically fell off the map due to off-court issues primarily concerning her father.  She somehow managed to put all of that behind her, however, and last season finished in the top 100 for the first time in 15 years.  She won her first title in 16 years with her run last year in Québec City and continues to enjoy her tennis and the opportunity to once again become a Cinderella story.  

Odds do not favor Lucic-Baroni becoming a Cinderella in Paris, but it is not out of the realm of possibility.  She is an aggressive baseliner, who is of a greater physical stature than Halep and owns the bigger game.  She is in a better position to set herself up for points with her serve, and she can tee off on the ball if Halep leaves anything short.  Halep needs to have a good serving day and keep the ball consistently deep, and it is imperative that she move the ball around the court to avoid allowing Lucic-Baroni to get into a rhythm and swing for the fences.  How well each is able to execute their respective game plans is going to be determined by where they are mentally, and that is where this match gets interesting.  Both remember it was Lucic-Baroni that won their only other encounter.  Both are aware that victory came at last year's US Open, so they know that the Croat is capable of pulling off an upset on a grand stage.  Furthermore, one of Halep's worst losses this season came in her opening match in Madrid, where she was a defending finalist.  She did not exactly roll through her first match here, and there is some question as to how she is holding up under the weight of increased expectations, especially at a venue where she is defending so many points.  If she is on her game, Lucic-Baroni is the kind of player who could expose any chinks in the Romanian's armor.

It is going to take a special effort from the Croat and some help from Halep for history to repeat itself.  Expect the No. 3 seed to get through, but it could evolve into an entertaining trip to the third round.  

Garbine Muguruza

Garbiñe Muguruza versus Camila Giorgi

The hard-hitting, six-foot Spaniard Muguruza first made the tennis world take notice of her at this venue last year, when she stunningly thumped Serena Williams en route to reaching the the last eight in Paris.  She has continued to back up that stunner with solid results ever since, including her quarterfinal appearance  in Sydney and semifinal showing in Dubai earlier this season.  Presently ranked No. 20, just a spot below her career-high of No. 19 achieved this past March, it is no shocker that she has been a popular dark horse pick for the 2015 Roland Garros title by many analysts.

Although most would not consider Muguruza's opponent, Giorgi, to be a legitimate dark horse contender for the title, many would agree that she is a dangerous floater against many players, including the No. 21 seed.  The Italian may be one of the more petite competitors in the sport, but she packs a mean punch that belies her small size.  She hits flat, penetrating groundstrokes and does an exceptional job of hugging the baseline.  As a result, she has accumulated some impressive wins in her career and comes into this match knowing that she has a game that can trouble the Spaniard.

Camila Giorgi

As it is, history has already shown that Giorgi has the tools necessary to cause the upset in this second-round contest.  She has defeated Muguruza in their two previous matches, including on the clay of Madrid in 2013.  She is easily the better mover of the pair, which should allow her to play greater defense and potentially turn it into offense.  Also, Giorgi is ranked fewer than 20 places below Muguruza, so she is not apt to press and see the Spaniard as a vastly superior opponent.  No doubt Muguruza will be aware of all of this, but she has a very good look at advancing at Giorgi's expense.  Given her height, she owns a distinct advantage on her serve and will not mind the ball sitting up on the dirt.  She also possesses greater power on her groundstrokes and is therefore in a more favorable position to hit through the court and control what is happening in the match.  Furthermore, Giorgi lost her opening matches in Prague, Madrid, and Rome before arriving at Roland Garros, so in spite of her losing head-to-head record, Muguruza may actually be in a stronger place mentally than Giorgi.

If Muguruza is feeling confident about her chances, the edge has to go to her in this match.  She has the bigger weapons, has more experience on this kind of stage, and has been playing better tennis heading into Paris.  If she plays within herself, this is her match to win.  But if she fails to do that, do not be stunned to see Giorgi take advantage.  She has garnered surprising victories over more accomplished players than Muguruza in the past, and if the Spaniard brings less than her A-game, Giorgi is well-equipped to capitalize.