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Roland Garros: Three to See on Day 11

Jun 6th 2017

Andy Murray versus Kei Nishikori

Despite their respective seeding, few were predicting that Andy Murray and Kei Nishikori would ultimately survive to set up this quarterfinal encounter.  Both men have, however, and at least one of them will continue to defy the odds by advancing to the semifinals.  Right now, the smart money would be on Murray to move on towards the final.  The current world no.1 leads Nishikori 8-2 in their rivalry, although their recent matches have been tight affairs.  They are relatively evenly-matched, but there is not one aspect of Nishikori's game that Murray cannot do just a little bit better.  His consistency and anticipation, in particular, can serve him well here, and one of the biggest factors in his favor is that he is presently healthier than the eighth seed, who is battling a pesky back issue. 

Kei Nishikori

Furthermore, ever since finding a way to seal the first two sets against Juan Martin del Potro and string together three consecutive victories for the first time since February, Murray has looked increasingly like the man who had such a stunning run the back half of last season.  Nishikori, by contrast, has continued to look like he is struggling to find his best form as illustrated by the score lines of his last few matches here.  And lastly, there is no discounting the plethora of experience Murray has at this level as compared to Nishikori.  He has three majors under his belt and reached the final here in 2016.  So, even though he has had little to celebrate in 2017, Murray looks the safer bet to come up with the goods when the chips are down and advance to the final four.

Simona Halep versus Elina Svitolina

They were two of the more popular picks to leave Paris as Roland Garros Champion, but sadly for Halep and Svitolina, one of their journeys will come to an end in the quarterfinals.  Signs point to Ukrainian as the one most likely to come up short.  It is not that it would necessarily be a huge shock to see Svitolina get the upset and possibly go on to take the title.  She has had a phenomenal season that has seen her win four titles, including Rome.  She has a solid, all-around game and is quick about the court.  She has grown in mental toughness, hence her coming back from the brink in her previous match against Petra Martic.  Roland Garros has also been her best slam. 

Elina Svitolina

The problem for Svitolina is that Halep is currently playing better than anyone else in the field, including Svitolina.  She hasn’t dropped many games, let alone sets.  Her ability to retrieve balls is well-documented, but of late she has been doing a great job of staying up on the baseline, going for her shots, and dictating the rallies in a way that belies her smaller stature.  Unlike Svitolina, Halep has been beyond this stage at a major as well, including a finalist appearance at this venue in 2014.  All told, there is a reason that she is the higher seed, and unless the pressure of the moment suddenly gets to her, Halep will continue her surge in 2017 by moving through to the semifinals.

Stan Wawrinka versus Marin Cilic

Something has got to give in this quarterfinal showdown between Stan Wawrinka and Marin Cilic.  Neither man has yet to lose a set, but by the time play ends on Wednesday, one of them will be bounced from the tournament.  Although he has dropped fewer games to reach this point, odds favor Cilic to be the one sent packing.  It is not that the Croat lacks the skills to go all the way.  He is a former US Open Champion, and there is no reason that his powerful groundstrokes and attacking style cannot be effective on the dirt.  But the clay does push his boundaries for consistency, and it also prohibits him from getting as many free points on serve as he accustomed to.  The other obstacle he must try and overcome is the psychological aspect of playing the Swiss.  He has only won two of their thirteen prior meetings.  In hindsight, it is a little surprising that their rivalry is so lopsided. 

Marin Cilic

They have contested a number of competitive matches and tight sets, but more often than not, it is Wawrinka who comes out on top.  If Cilic wants to make the third seed think things will be different this time around, it is imperative that he win the crucial points early to try and keep his nose out in front.  He can help accomplish this by staying aggressive to keep the Swiss pinned back on the baseline, and as much as possible, get to the net.  Of course, that is easier said than done.  Wawrinka has more variety and can bludgeon the ball harder than Cilic from the ground.  Additionally, he has already been battle-tested in some of the sets he has won this event, which will likely give him more belief on the pivotal points.  And lastly, Wawrinka is under the radar, right where wants to be.  It is where he was when he won his first three majors, nobody really looking at him until he caught fire and walked away with the title.  There is still work to be done before that happens, but it would be a stunner if he did not at least get through to the semifinals.