Rafael Nadal versus Dominic Thiem

It may not be a marquee match against his long-time rival Novak Djokovic, but Rafael Nadal facing Dominic Thiem is actually the semifinal most were looking forward to.  Nadal is the best player on this surface in the history of the sport, and he has definitely been the best player on the dirt this season.  Just behind him this year though is Dominic Thiem.  He is the only man to have defeated Nadal on the clay in 2017, and he will be keen to defy the odds once again by notching a second victory over the Spaniard here in Paris.

One of the most intriguing aspects about this match-up is that it pits the superb defense of Nadal against the offensive onslaught that Thiem can bring to the table.  Few have been able to crack the defenses of the Spaniard at this event, which is why he has only lost an unbelievable two matches here.  He not only shrinks the court by tracking down virtually every ball, but he does something with his shots, often putting his opponents in an awkward position or striking impossible winners.  But Nadal is hardly all about defense himself.  He is very adept at the net, which is probably the most underrated part of his game, and his famous topspin forehand and flatter backhand often allow him to dictate play.  He has also made a concerted effort to beef up his ground strokes this year, which has been paying dividends.  He needs to shore up things on his first serve this tournament, but otherwise, he presents an extremely formidable package.

Of course, Thiem is quickly proving himself to be a force to be reckoned with.  Although he lost to Nadal two of the three times they have played this year, he has had his opportunities in every one of those matches.  That is because he has enough firepower to take it to Nadal and bully the Spaniard.  He owns the bigger serve and packs a much meaner punch from both wings.  He can seemingly flick winners from anywhere in the court, and he also has shown some nice feel.  He can adjust and cope with the spin from the fourth seed, and with as powerful of a shot-maker as he is, if he is patient enough, he is more likely to get the short ball for the put-away.

It is because of the weaponry belonging to the Austrian that it could be argued that the outcome of this match depends just as much on him as it does Nadal, and maybe even more so.  To some extent, it seems insane to suggest that.  Nadal has fourteen majors under his belt, nine of which have come here.  He does not give anything away for free and is extremely difficult to put away in five sets, especially on this surface.  But Thiem has the skills to take it to Nadal.  It is strictly a matter of if he has the belief that he can do so consistently enough over the course of five sets to not only pull off what would be a huge upset of Nadal here in Paris but advance to his first-ever major singles final.  He has looked like a man brimming with confidence to this juncture.  He was especially impressive with the way he took the match right out of Novak Djokovic's hands in the last round, and even more so considering he had only ever won a single set against the Serb in five meetings.  He has every reason to be hopeful of doing something similar against Nadal.

If the sixth seed can bring that level of belief out onto the court with him on Friday, then he is more than capable of pulling off the upset and advancing to his first major singles final.  But finding the courage to reach a maiden major final is hard enough, and the challenge of having to get by Nadal on this surface to do so is a steep challenge indeed.  It is not insurmountable, but it would be a shock to see Nadal lose in this match.  He has been nearly untouchable on this surface all spring, and he has been extremely stingy when it comes to winning matches here.  Look for him to secure another victory on his adopted home courts, but he may have to overcome some spirited fireworks to do so.

Andy Murray versus Stan Wawrinka

While many are looking forward to the semifinal showdown in the bottom half the of the draw, the semifinal featuring Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka offers the possibility of being equally entertaining.  They are seeded first and third respectively.  Each also has three majors to his name, and one can bet that each is going to fight tooth and nail for the chance to add a fourth major title to his legacy.

Murray and Wawrinka have contested some enthralling matches in the past, including a four-set encounter in this same round last year.  On that occasion, it was Murray who reigned victorious, and he will be keen to repeat that feat and add to his current 10-7 lead in his rivalry against the Swiss.  A prime reason for the Scot's success against Wawrinka is his superior foot speed.  His court coverage, and more specifically his anticipation, are second to none.  He is not only able to track down balls, but do something with them when he gets there, and he owns the best lob in men's tennis.  What has made him more effective in recent years, however, is that he has done a better job of utilizing his offensive skills instead of relying too heavily on defense.  He can step into the court and take control of the point from either wing, and he is one of the best finishers at the net.  When at his best, there are no real chinks in his armor, which makes him a daunting prospect for any opponent.

Of course, there are not many players out there who are more daunting than playing Wawrinka when he is firing on all cylinders.  By his own admission, he is a streaky player, which is why he has suffered more of the occasional odd losses than some of the other top guys.  But when he starts to get in the zone, he can steamroll just about anybody. He is able to hit through these courts, even in heavy or windy conditions, better than most, as evidenced by the way he knocked off both Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic on his way to the title here in 2014.  He has also improved his movement and does a great job of improvising and buying himself time with the slice he can employ from either wing.  His signature, one-handed backhand also is an excellent device for opening up the court, and he will need to use that on Friday to get Murray on the move and to subsequently create space.

The good news for the Swiss is that he is the one who enters this match with the greater level of confidence to impose himself on the top seed.  Although he has had a handful of close calls, he has yet to drop a set this tournament.  He won the title in Geneva before arriving in Paris, and he loves a big stage.  This is the path he took to winning his prior three majors, catching fire at the right time, and he might feel he is destined to do so again.  That said, Murray will not necessarily be lacking in belief.  He has won on the grandest stages of the sport and accumulated a number of notable wins in his decorated career, including ten victories over the third seed.  But there is no denying that Murray is not the same man who made the final here last year.  In fact, as disappointing as his 2017 has been, it is admirable that he has found a way to fight to make it this far.  And to his credit, Murray has steadily improved with each round.  Given the differences in their form throughout this tournament, however, there is no question that Wawrinka has to be the more confident of the pair about his chances.

Confidence is only one piece of the puzzle though.  Wawrinka still must go out and execute his game plan, and as alluded to earlier, that is not always a sure thing with him.  He has looked by far more solid than Murray throughout this fortnight though, and based on what we have seen from the Scot thus far this season, he has not yet regained the form that made him the pillar of consistency fans have become accustomed to.  Murray has put forth an inspiring run and will no doubt compete his hardest to continue it, but based on present form, odds favor Wawrinka advancing to get a crack at securing a second Roland Garros crown.