Right from the outset, portions of the women's draw at the US Open fell apart.  Many unheralded underdogs have gotten the better of their higher-ranked opponents and enjoyed the spoils.  But for all of the upsets that have already transpired, there are still a few sections of the draw that have held true to form.  Agnieszka Radwanska and Madison Keys are two of the women who have lived up to their seeding, and they will square off on Friday with a berth in the round of 16 hanging in the balance.

To some degree, it has been a good effort by both of these women to set up this clash.  Radwanska was once ranked as high as No. 2, but she has endured plenty of struggles in 2015 that have seen her drop outside the top 10.  It was not until the grass court season, when she reached the final of Eastbourne and the semifinals of both Wimbledon and Nottingham, that she began to right the ship.  Like the Pole, Madison Keys has also had her ups and downs this year.  She shocked everyone with her stunning run to the semifinals of the Australian Open, but with the exception of her finalist appearance in Charleston and quarterfinal finish at Wimbledon, she has seemed to buckle under the weight of new expectations that were placed on her shoulders with that breakthrough run.

Fortunately for Radwanska and Keys, they have shown positive signs of putting their earlier struggles behind them, and at least one of them will take a further step in the right direction by advancing to the second week here.  The question is, “Who?”  In terms of their respective games, there is no question that Keys is in the better position to control her destiny.  The American is easily one of the most powerful shot-makers in the sport, going big off both wings and on the serve.  She is also aggressive-minded and is not afraid to move forward when an opportunity presents itself.  If she taps into her best form, she can reduce Radwanska to the role of spectator as she hits her way into the fourth round.

One of the greatest attributes of Radwanska, however, is that she is a problem solver.  She never operates under the delusion that she can just trade groundstrokes with her harder-hitting opposition and finds ways to frustrate her more powerful foes.  She does so through the wide variety in her game, utilizing various spins and slices to take opponents out of their rhythm.  Coupled with her speed, anticipation, and ability to change the direction of the ball, she presents an unsettling package that can often goad a player into going for too much.  Radwanska will need to use everything in her bag of tricks, as well as continue charging the net with the greater consistency she has shown in recent months, in order to rob Keys of time, keeping the American off balance and unable to play her own game.

If anyone doubts Radwanska's ability to get the better of the 19th seed, they need look no further than the head-to-head between these two.  The Pole is a perfect 4-0 against Keys, with her most recent victory coming at this past Wimbledon.  Furthermore, although the US Open has been her worst major, Radwanska has still been to the fourth round multiple times, whereas Keys is presently in uncharted territory here.  Of course, Keys is a different player now than she was when she met Radwanska on some of those earlier occasions, and their match at Wimbledon this season went three sets.  She knows she is edging closer to her first victory over Radwanska, and it might just come on Friday.

There will undoubtedly be plenty of home fans rooting for Keys to get the victory over Radwanska and set up what will likely be an enticing encounter with Serena Williams.  Signs certainly indicate that Keys is becoming increasingly more comfortable with embracing the spotlight and her place as a future star for the years to come.  But rest assured Radwanska is not going to make it easy for her.

In tennis, it seems that the greatest accomplishments of elite players are often rehashed to some degree before the start of any match they are about to play.  Yet tennis also remains very focused on what a player has done lately.  As a result of this focus, much of the talk pertaining to Rafael Nadal, decorated champion that he is, has been about his sub-par results and if or when he will regain his top form.  His current circumstances have added a level of excitement to his early rounds at the majors, which is why there will be no shortage of intrigue when he takes on Fabio Fognini on Friday.  

Prior to this season, few would have suspected this match had a chance of becoming an upset, since the Spaniard had never lost to the Italian.  Things are different in 2015, however.  Nadal has publicly admitted to feeling the nerves and being less confident, and he has played below the high bar that he has set for himself over the course of the last decade.  Fognini has essentially done the opposite.  Although still mercurial, the Italian has shown more dedication and professionalism over the last 18 months and has seen his ranking rise.  His willingness to compete has also served him well against Nadal.  They have met three times this season – all on clay – and it was Fognini who emerged the victor on two of the three occasions.  All things considered, this is set up to be a fascinating match.

The outcome in this match is likely to be decided upon three primary factors.  The first is the manner in which Nadal opts to play Fognini.  As he regains his confidence, Nadal has steadily worked towards being more aggressive with his forehand up the line and backhand cross court.  He also does a better job of staying up on the baseline, going after his serve, and looking to get into the net where possible.  But Nadal still is not always playing as aggressively as he has to, and when nerves set in, he has a tendency to go into defensive mode. He uses the serve merely to start the point, falls too far behind the baseline, and relies heavily on his retrieving ability.  That is enough to get the job done against some players, but there is a good chance it will not be enough against Fognini.  The Italian is not afraid to take it to any player, and if Nadal gives him the opportunity to dictate play, Fognini will gladly take it.

Fognini's ability to dictate will be affected by his consistency on the court, which is another factor to consider in this match.  The 32nd seed is perfectly able to stay in the extended rallies, but he can suddenly flatten the ball out from either wing to end a point quickly.  He naturally prefers offense and is capable of playing bigger tennis than his slight frame would suggest.  He is going to have to adapt to Nadal, though, for the Spaniard's weight of shot is heavier.  If Nadal comes out guns blazing, Fognini is going to have to rely on his foot speed and find the right balance between defense and offense if he is to avoid committing too many unforced errors and surrendering cheap points.

If Fognini starts to allow unforced errors to creep into his game, he must not allow his temper to get the better of him.  This leads to the third and arguably most important fact in this match, which is the mental state of each combatant.  Fognini can have a short fuse, and when things start to go wrong, the wheels can come of for extended periods of time.  That is something he can ill afford against someone like Nadal, who plays virtually every point like it is his last.  On the flip side, Nadal has to do his best to effectively manage his nerves.  He is naturally anxious to make something happen in New York, and that has shown in the way he has at times struggled to close out sets.  If he gets in a winning position, he has to slam the door.  If not, unlike some players, Fognini has enough gumption to make him pay for it.

All in all, this has the makings of an enthralling end to play on Day 5 at the US Open.  Much will depend on whether or not Fognini has come to compete, but if he has, expect plenty of fireworks as these two spirited warriors duke it out for a berth in Week 2.