Serena Williams versus Simona Halep

It was the quarterfinal that everyone was hoping for, and after four rounds of play, it has come to fruition.  Serena Williams, seeking to retain her Number 1 ranking and a twenty-third major singles title will take on the feisty fifth seed, Simona Halep on Wednesday.  The Romanian represents the stiffest competition Williams has faced thus far, and this could evolve into one captivating contest.

Williams is the obvious favorite, and not just because of her imposing game.  She also brings with her an intimidating reputation built on a foundation of tremendous success.  She is the winner of twenty-two singles majors, but she also has multiple major titles in doubles, mixed doubles, and in Olympic competition.  She has over seventy singles titles alone, including a number of WTA Championships and Premier events, and she has been far and away the most dominant figure of the WTA in recent seasons. 

Williams and her aura can be difficult for anyone to overcome, but one player who could be up to the challenge is Halep.  The Romanian has been as high as world no. 2, and despite some minor injury woes that led to the odd slump here and there, finds herself currently ranked a respectable Number 5.  She has won three tournaments this season, including Madrid and Montreal, and she reached the final of Roland Garros two years ago where she pushed Maria Sharapova to three sets.  She is a former semifinalist both here and at Wimbledon, so this is hardly uncharted territory for her.

A big part of the reason why Halep has regularly been making the latter stages of the slams is her improved serve, and it is essential that it be working for her on Wednesday.  She has to use it to put herself in the driver's seat as often as possible, but she also has to ensure that she is executing a high percentage.  Williams has struggled with her return throughout this event, but Halep hardly wants to give her too many looks at a second delivery.  Another key for the Romanian is going to be to get Williams on the run by using short angles, and she cannot be afraid to go up the line from either wing.  She can hardly hope to out slug the top seed from the baseline, so she has to take chances.

For Williams, she does need to shore up her return game, and she has to continue to enjoy good serving days.  Halep will not be intimidated by her, and she will not be shy about teeing off and taking control if she gets a look at a second serve.  Equally important, Williams must remain patient.  Unless she is having an off day, Halep is unlikely to give Williams as many easy errors as her other opponents to this juncture.  And though her lack of power does not allow her to turn defense into offense in the same manner as the American, Halep has a comparable set of wheels that will allow her to extend rallies more than Williams has experienced to his point.  She has the firepower to hit the fifth seed off the court, but she still has to bide her time for the right moment.

Handling the moment will also have much to do with the outcome of this quarterfinal.  Halep has only ever defeated Williams once in eight tries and lost in routine fashion to the American earlier this year at Indian Wells.  But she has played Williams close in recent meetings, and she is no stranger to this stage of a major.  She also has that feisty attitude, which bodes well for her chances.  As for Williams, this is old hat for her.  She knows she has owned the Romanian in prior encounters, and she is aware that she is in the prime position to control the outcome.  But she has yet to be tested, and if Halep can make her feel some scoreboard pressure that makes Williams think her ranking and chance at a twenty-third major singles title are in jeopardy, who knows what if any nerves might creep into her game.

With any luck, this will turn into one of the most thrilling battles between these two.  Halep has the game and the belief, but she has to execute at a high-level beginning to end to have a prayer.  The smart money is still on Williams to continue her march towards history.

Stan Wawrinka versus Juan Martin del Potro

Politics are not just reserved for candidates and government officials.  They also permeate the world of sports, and tennis is no exception.  When there was talk and then confirmation that Juan Martin del Potro would be awarded a wild card into the main draw of the US Open, there were some who took umbrage with the decision.  The Argentine has shown that he was more than worthy of it, however, and will now look to continue to make use of it by defeating Stan Wawrinka for a place in the final four.

Del Potro is sadly best known for the wrist injuries that have severely hampered his career.  He has undergone multiple surgeries to his wrists to the point there was some question as to whether or not he would ever be able to resume his career.  But the Argentine has defied the odds and appears to once again be in championship form.  He is playing well above his ranking of Number 142 and more like his career-high ranking of world no. 4.  He is a man who has claimed victories over the greatest in the sport and most impressive of all, he was the victor at this tournament in 2009, defeating Roger Federer for the title.

Like del Potro though, Wawrinka has tasted Grand Slam success.  He stunned everyone when he won the Australian Open two years ago and backed it up with a title run at Roland Garros last season.  He has proven he can hold his own with anyone, and he is a two-time semifinalist here in New York.  He is back to his career-high ranking of Number 3, and he will no doubt be keen to live up to his third seeding by advancing to the final four at the Argentine's expense.

Not surprisingly, a portion of this match will come down to who controls the majority of the rallies and can impose his preferred patterns of play.  Both men boast a lot of firepower from the ground and on serve, but that does not necessarily mean they are looking to do the exact same thing.  The Argentine gets more pop on his forehand whether stationary or on the run, and because of his height, also gets more mileage out of his serve.  The Swiss does do a lot of damage with his forehand and serve, but he should be looking more for the backhand exchanges in this match.  Del Potro has had to tone his own backhand down to accommodate his wrist, so Wawrinka is apt to make more headway going after that stroke. 

Of course, all the power and the advantages it affords mean nothing if one does not have the belief to successfully utilize them, and it is in the psychological department where del Potro might have the slight edge.  Their only recent meeting came at this year's Wimbledon where the Argentine won in four sets, but del Potro has won their last four meetings to lead the rivalry 4-2.  He has also enjoyed the better summer, the highlight being the Rio Olympics where he defeated both Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal on his way to a silver medal finish, and he has played the superior brand of tennis to reach this stage.  None of that is to say that Wawrinka will be lacking in belief, though.  He did not win his two majors by accident, and he has gotten the better of higher-ranked opposition than del Potro.  But based on current form, you have to believe that the wild card will have greater conviction when the chips are down.

Maybe it is not fair to call this match an upset alert.  After all, many pundits placed del Potro as the third favorite to win the title here.  It is fair to say that this definitely has the feel of a “popcorn match” where there could be some breathtaking shot-making in an encounter that could teeter either way, but the edge ever so slightly has to go the Argentine.