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Quarterfinal Previews: Nadal vs. Dimitrov, Federer vs. Murray

Jan 21st 2014

The two greatest rivals in tennis history stand one win each from arranging their 33rd meeting and third in Melbourne.

Rafael Nadal

Rafael Nadal vs. Grigor Dimitrov

Grigor Dimitrov is the only player left in the men’s side of the draw to have never played a quarterfinal match at a grand slam. His opponent, top seed Rafael Nadal, will be playing in his 26th career grand slam quarterfinal. The Spaniard has won 21 out of the 25 quarterfinals that he has played at majors.

Confronted head on by Kei Nishikori in his fourth-round match, Nadal is fully aware of the intensifying challenges the young guns are beginning to present. It took Nadal over three hours to win three brutally close sets over the rising Japanese star.

Dimitrov will surely draw confidence and belief from Nishikori’s performance and his prior history with the Spaniard despite coming up short in all three of their previous matches. Dimitrov and Nadal first met in Rotterdam back in 2009, a match that Nadal would go on to win in three sets against the 17-year-old Bulgarian. Following their Rotterdam meeting, Nadal and Dimitrov did not face each other for three years and played their two most recent matches in 2013. Nadal won both of these meetings in three sets as well, in Monte Carlo and Cincinnati. In all three matches that they have played, Nadal has won the first and third sets and Dimitrov has won the second set.

Dimitrov comes into this match off two big wins against Milos Raonic in the third round and Roberto Bautista-Agut in the fourth round. The Bulgarian has been touted for years as someone who will ascend to the top of the game in years to come, although the man they call “Baby Fed” may be having his coming-out party a bit earlier than some expected.

If Dimitrov is able to beat Nadal, it would send major shockwaves throughout the tennis world. Despite the fact that Dimitrov has failed to beat Nadal in a best-of-three match, his chances should not be underestimated. He has a legitimate chance to win this match.

Grigor Dimitrov

For the Bulgarian to shock the world, he’ll have to be clicking on all cylinders, especially off the backhand side. Dimitrov’s backhand needs to be a major source of offense and defense against Nadal. He’ll have to neutralize Nadal’s cross-court forehand with clean, aggressive backhands taken on the rise. Whenever Nadal gives him a short cross-court forehand, Dimitrov must take advantage and look to force Nadal to take one hand off the racket on the backhand side or play an even shorter ball on the forehand side. Dimitrov should also look to drive through his slice backhand and see if he can make any inroads on Nadal’s forehand by making him play low slices, a tough shot to handle with Rafa’s western grip on the forehand.

As far as defense goes, Dimitrov moves extremely well to his backhand side and will need to use his slice backhand as a defensive tool when Nadal’s forehand pulls him out into the doubles alley. His serve will be crucial in this match. The Bulgarian No. 1 has to get ahead quickly in a lot of points and in a lot of service games, putting the pressure back on Nadal. As soon as Nadal smells blood within his opponent’s service games, it usually means big trouble.

It’ll be interesting to see how Dimitrov will handle the occasion. I expect he’ll do well, but that may not be good enough against one of the greatest players of all time.

Prediction: Nadal in four sets

Roger Federer

Roger Federer vs Andy Murray

The last time Roger Federer and Andy Murray played, they were vying for a spot in the 2013 Australian Open final. In what was a strenuous and heated five-set match, Murray fought off Federer’s comeback from two sets to one down to secure his first victory in a major over the Swiss star.

Murray is still hunting for his first Australian Open title. He has been in the final three times and has lost all three times (2010, 2011, 2013). Federer will be looking to claim his fifth Australian Open title, which would be the most of any man in the Open era and second-most all-time behind Aussie great Roy Emerson.

Federer’s loss in the final of Brisbane left a lot of questions out in the open moving into this event, including how Federer’s racket would impact his play and what Stefan Edberg could do for his game. His first three matches didn’t provide much of an answer as the Swiss dominated three relatively unheralded opponents. But his vintage display against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the fourth round may have marked the beginning of a much improved Roger Federer.

The average ranking of Andy Murray’s first four opponents was 131.25. He rolled through his first three matches and his first two sets in the fourth round before Stephane Robert altered what was expected to be a routine straight sets match and took the third set in a tiebreak. Murray, not overjoyed with dropping the third set, smashed his racket but then proceeded to win the fourth set convincingly.

While Federer’s form in his match against Tsonga has made him the slight favorite over a slightly irked Murray, this is not going to be a walk in the park. He actually has a losing record to Murray overall (9-11) but does own a 3-1 lead against the Brit in majors. Out of the 20 matches Murray and Federer have played, 18 have been played on a hard court. Murray has won 10 of these 18 matches and leads the head-to-head 8-4 on outdoor hard courts.

Andy Murray

The forehand-to-forehand exchanges in this match will be vital for Federer to dominate. If Federer is able to pound his strongest shot into Murray’s weaker wing, he’ll give himself a better opportunity to dictate the rallies. If Murray is able to coerce Federer into backhand-to-backhand rallies, Federer will be more at Murray’s mercy.

One thing that Federer did well against Tsonga was not providing him short balls off his backhand. Tsonga was attempting to go heavy into Federer’s backhand to force a short ball that he could pummel with his forehand. Murray did an excellent job in their Australian Open match last year dominating with his forehand. Any short ball Federer gave him was seen as an opportunity to be the aggressor.

Federer’s forays into the net against Tsonga were beautifully timed and wonderfully executed. He’ll look to do more of the same against Murray, who is known to be pretty predictable with his passing shots in going cross-court, as Federer will be aware

One shot in this match that could get Murray in a lot of trouble, especially with an increasingly aggressive Federer, is his second serve. Murray has a massive drop-off between his first and second serves and knows that Federer will not be shy when attacking his second serve, which often sits up and is shallow in the service box.

Federer definitely has the edge in this match, but a Murray victory shouldn’t come as a massive surprise.

Prediction: Federer in five sets