Angelique Kerber versus Roberta Vinci

The draw has been whittled down to the last eight, and it should come as no surprise to anyone that Angelique Kerber is among them.  That Roberta Vinci should make good on her seventh seed is probably more so.  But the Italian has once again found her best in New York, and she will look to cause the upset by defeating Kerber to advance to the semifinals.

Until last year, Vinci was not regularly known outside of tennis circles.  She had put together a respectable career in singles but it was predominantly in doubles, where she teamed with countrywoman Sara Errani, that she found most of her success, which included winning multiple major doubles titles.  Then she arrived at the 2015 US Open where she found herself up against Serena Williams in the semifinals.  The Italian had never even taken a set off of the American, but between some cagey play and nerves from Williams, Vinci went down in the history books as the unlikely spoiler of Williams's bid for the calendar-year Grand Slam.  That result, coupled with her title run earlier this year in St. Petersburg propelled her to a career-high singles ranking of Number 7, and she will be looking to pull off a similar feat in the quarterfinals against Kerber on Tuesday.

Vinci will find Kerber a different opponent than when they last played three years ago, however.  The second seed has been one of the hottest players on tour all season long.  She captured her maiden major title in Melbourne, reached the finals of Wimbledon and the Olympics, and has been a pillar of consistency the last several months.  As a result, she finds herself not only in the position as a strong title contender in Flushing Meadows but also to vie for the Number 1 ranking.  She can help her chances by getting by Vinci to move through to the semifinals.

Kerber would be the one best-equipped to get through this encounter.  She is quicker around the court, and both her serve and ground strokes penetrate the court better.  Her lefty forehand, in particular, can be a formidable tool for opening up the court, and she is one of the best returners in the sport, which may come into play even more so in this match given that Vinci's serve is not exactly a weapon. 

But Vinci has faced plenty of opponents over the course of her career that appeared to be holding all of the cards, and that has not stopped her before.  She is a wily veteran with exceptional skills in the forecourt.  She knows how to get herself to the net as well, utilizing all of her various spins and slices, which also have the added benefit of making her opposition do the work of creating pace.  It may not be the most imposing of games, but it has proven effective through the years.

Because she is an accomplished veteran, Vinci should be right there mentally with Kerber in this contest.  They have split their prior four meetings at two each, and as evidenced by the way the Italian handled herself last year, she is unlikely to be intimidated by Kerber or the occasion.  In fact, it might be Kerber who feels the pressure more.  She is the favorite with more riding on the line, and because Vinci has more of an old-school game, the German is going to have a lot more time to think rather than just react.  She will have to guard against getting in her own way if she does not want to complicate this quarterfinal.

It should be interesting to see how this one pans out.  Vinci clearly should not be underestimated, as she has shown she has the game and the gumption to rise to the occasion.  That said, Kerber remains the clear favorite.  She has the bigger weapons and has enjoyed far more success in 2016.  So long as she stays in the moment, she should find herself in the semifinals.

Novak Djokovic versus Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

The field may have dwindled with the second week of the US Open well underway, but the quality of the matches on tap has only gone up.  One quarterfinal sure to have plenty of spectacular shot-making is the match featuring Novak Djokovic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.  With both capable of producing exciting offense and jaw-dropping defense, if these two bring their best, it could be one for the ages.

Tsonga knows that he has to bring his best if he hopes to pull off the upset, as he will enter this encounter as the underdog.  The Frenchman has never won a major singles title, but he has been right in the thick of it at all of the slams on numerous occasions, including a finalist appearance at the Australian Open in 2008.  He is presently ranked Number 11 and has been as high as world no. 5.  Furthermore, he has come up with the goods at the Masters level on two occasions and will hardly be intimidated by the prospect of playing Djokovic on Tuesday.

As for Djokovic, he finds himself in familiar territory.  He has already won two slams this season, and except for his hiccup at this year's Wimbledon, has been as close to bankable as a player can get at the slams.  He has also been stingy at the Masters, and after some shaky play and niggling injury issues the last few weeks, has increasingly looked like the dominant force that he has been the better part of the last two seasons.  He is a two-time champion at this tournament and many like his chances of becoming a three-time champion by the time this event has come to a close.

One of the reasons that Djokovic has become such a constant presence at the business end of tournaments is that there are no glaring weaknesses in his game.  With the possible exception of his play in the forecourt, there is nothing that Tsonga does that Djokovic does not do better.  The Serb is quicker around the court and plays better defense.  He is superior at finding angles, and his ground game, both on defense and offense, is more consistent than the Frenchman's, especially from the backhand wing.

Suffice it to say, there really is nowhere for the ninth seed to go if he is hoping to make inroads in Djokovic's game.  He is going to have to take risks by playing outside of his comfort zone if he wants to put the top seed under pressure and possibly procure errors from Djokovic's racquet.  That translates to going for more on his serve while still putting in a high percentage, aiming up the lines with greater frequency, and constantly looking to charge the net to put the onus on Djokovic to come up with the pass.

It is definitely a tall task that stands before Tsonga, but the good news for him is that he knows he has had success against Djokovic in the past.  He has defeated the Serb on six occasions, including at a major six years ago at the Australian Open.  Based on results this summer, he is also arguably catching Djokovic at a period where he is a little more vulnerable than in recent months.  The bad news for Tsonga is that Djokovic does lead their rivalry 15-6 and has defeated the Frenchman five of the six times that they have met at a major.  He also looks to have found his groove again, and the top seed has been to this stage far more often.

All told, if Djokovic is at or near his best, he should get through.  Tsonga could make it entertaining.  He could make it close, and if he plays a complete match at his highest level, he might even garner the upset.  But while the entertaining and close aspects might pan out, odds do not favor the upset occurring.  Djokovic has been so rock solid in New York the last several years and an exit in the quarterfinals does not seem likely.