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Previewing Venus-Bacsinszky, Djokovic at Roland Garros

May 29th 2016

The second week of Roland Garros is in full swing, and the matches are inherently tougher for the players from now to the end.  One of the most interesting of the women's fourth-round matches is the one that pits Timea Bacsinszky against Venus Williams.  Both women are examples of “feel-good” stories in tennis, but only one of them will be able to continue her journey at Roland Garros.

Venus Williams

Despite being the slightly lower-ranked and lower-seeded player of the two, there will be many looking for Williams to be the one to advance.  She has done so much in her career, including winning multiple singles and doubles major crowns, that to some extent, it is hard to bet against that record of accomplishments and experience.  She is also a former No. 1, and in spite of the many ups and downs she has undergone in recent years, she does not lack for confidence when she takes to the court.

Bacsinszky may not have the stellar career record of Williams, but she can relate to the American's ups and downs.  The Swiss essentially lost a few years of her career due to various injuries and very nearly gave up the sport.  She decided to give it one more go, however, and she is undoubtedly thrilled that she did.  She shocked everyone with her run to the semifinals of this event a year ago, and she is aiming to try and repeat that result or better in 2016.  After winning the clay event in Rabat and reaching the quarterfinals in Rome, she ought to be feeling reasonably confident of her chances.

None of that is to say that Bacsinszky will not have her work cut out for her, though.  Williams enters this match as the combatant with the overall bigger game.  She possesses more firepower from the ground and serve, which places her in a better position to turn defense into offense.  Her lanky frame coupled with her tremendous foot speed also make it exceptionally difficult to put the ball away against her.  Furthermore, she cuts an intimidating figure at the net. 

Timea Bacsinszky

But Williams can be prone to double faults, and if Bacsinszky goes for it when she gets a look at a second delivery, she might be able to coax a few more out of the American.  Bacsinszky herself needs to have a good serving day as well and continue to mix up the pace of the ball as she has done throughout this entire tournament.  Most importantly, she has to remain patient and not shy away from playing extended rallies instead of going for a winner that is not there.  Williams has gone through low-energy periods over the course of matches, and Bacsinszky should look to make her move and keep playing the extra ball to see if she cannot benefit from such a patch of play. 

Another pivotal factor in this match is going to come down to who handles the moment better.  Williams leads their rivalry 2-0, but given that both of those matches came before the Swiss really hit her stride, they may have little impact on this latest encounter.  Besides, with the exception of the first month of the season, the eighth seed has been playing the better brand of tennis.  This is also the site where she became a Cinderella last year, and players often tend to find their best at a venue where they have enjoyed success in the past.  As for Williams, she has to draw on her vast array of experience and remember the great champion that she is.  Additionally, she has to remind herself that she is the one with the greater arsenal of weapons, so she is in primary position to dictate the terms of this match.

Which way will this one go?  As evidenced by Bacsinszky being the eighth seed to Williams's ninth, there is little to choose between the two.  If Williams plays at her best, she could cause a slight upset, but few would have pegged Bacsinszky to make such a run last year.  She looks like she believes she could do so again, and when factoring in her current form, she gets the slight edge to advance.

Novak Djokovic

It is never easy coping with the pressure of being the tournament favorite.  It is never easy chasing history.  Once again, Novak Djokovic has been tasked with both this fortnight in Paris.  He has looked solid thus far, but he will be asked to take things up a notch when he faces Spain's Roberto Bautista Agut on Monday.

It is no wonder that Djokovic is the man many picked to win this tournament.  He is firmly entrenched at the pinnacle of the rankings and has been awfully stingy when it comes to winning not just matches but entire tournaments.  By his high standards, he has looked a little tighter and more vulnerable over the course of this spring, but having won the title in Madrid and worked his way to the final of Rome, he still finds himself in good position in Paris.

Bautista Agut cannot hold a candle to all the Serb has accomplished thus far in his career, but he is hardly a slouch.  He is currently ranked No. 16 and has really come into his own over the course of the last couple of years.  He is quickly becoming a mainstay at this stage of many events, and he has picked up two titles this season, those coming in Sofia and Auckland.  He is not the flashiest player but instead very workmanlike, and he is prepared to make any opponent – even Djokovic – fight until the last ball has been struck.

Roberto Bautista Agut

As game as he may be to compete to the end, however, the Spaniard will know that most expect it will be a bitter end for him.  Bautista Agut is a very solid player, able to pull the trigger from either wing.  His groundstrokes also tend to be relatively flat and penetrating, and although his serve is nothing special, it is not a liability either.  In short, he does not have glaring weaknesses.  The problem for him is that he does not have any major weapons either, and there is not a thing that he does that Djokovic does not do better.  The Serb has more margin for error from the ground and puts himself in a position to control the rallies with his superior serve.  His return should give him more looks on the Spaniard's serve than Bautista Agut will get on his.  Furthermore, Djokovic covers the court better, which is bound to extract more errors from Bautista Agut, who hits flatter.

Further complicating matters for Bautista Agut is his dismal record against Djokovic.  The Serb is a perfect 4-0 against Baustista Agut, and their most recent battle ended in a very lopsided victory for the top seed.  Djokovic also has vastly more experience playing matches of this magnitude, so theoretically he should be less daunted by the occasion.  That is a lot for Bautista Agut to overcome, but there are two areas where he might find hope.  First, although he has never won against Djokovic, their match at last year's US Open was a competitive four-set affair.  Second, Djokovic is the man having to play with the pressures that come with being the favorite as well as trying to complete the career Grand Slam.  With Nadal's withdrawal seemingly helping the Serb's cause, Djokovic has to guard against thinking ahead and playing tight, sloppy tennis as a result.

Of course, barring an extraordinary performance from Bautista Agut to make the top seed uncomfortable, it is unlikely that Djokovic is going to play sloppy enough to lose this match.  He has come through many tough matches when not at his best already this season, and fans should expect him to do so again if necessary on Monday.  The Spaniard has the goods to make this entertaining, but anything short of a Djokovic victory would be a massive upset.