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Previewing Thursday's Matches at the ATP World Tour Finals

Nov 6th 2013

Group B returns to the court Thursday as Roger Federer and Richard Gasquet clash in an almost must-win match. The evening match will feature Juan Martin Del Potro squaring off against Novak Djokovic in a battle for supremacy atop the group.

Roger Federer

Roger Federer (0-1) vs. Richard Gasquet (0-1)

Federer and Gasquet were both three-set losers in their opening matches. They will be looking to keep themselves afloat in Group B as they square off in the first singles match to be played Thursday. In his opening match, Gasquet fell 7-5 in the third set to Juan Martin Del Potro, while Federer lost to Novak Djokovic in three sets for the second time in four days.

Federer leads the head to head 10-2, the two losses coming on outdoor clay, and he has won both matches that these two have contested on indoor hard courts. The last time that they met came in the third round of the Masters 1000 event in Madrid in 2012. Their last meeting on an indoor hard court came in the third round of the Paris Masters  1000 event in 2011, a tournament that Federer ultimately would win.

Gasquet’s big victory against Federer came in the third round of the Masters Series event in Rome in 2011. Gasquet dropped the first set before storming back to win the final two sets in tiebreaks.

If Gasquet were to lose this match, it would be very hard to see him getting out of this group with only one match left to play against Djokovic. If Federer loses, his road to the semifinals would not be much easier with his final match is against Del Potro. Either way, the loser of this match must win his final match and get some help.

Gasquet suffered an agonizingly tight loss at the hands of Del Potro. If he expects to beat Federer, he must do a much better job of capitalizing on the big points and getting ahead on serve. Against Del Potro, Gasquet was broken serving for the first set and after he had broken when Del Potro served for the match. The pressure points against Federer should be easier to handle, since Federer’s backhand is a clear target to attack at those stages. As a result of his backhand’s susceptibility, Federer usually approaches break points with heightened passivity.

For Federer, exploiting the Gasquet court positioning will be vital. Sharply angled groundstrokes, consistent on-the-rise ball striking, and a stream of net approaches should do the trick in taking advantage of Gasquet’s defensive stance. The backhand-to-backhand rallies in this match should be vital. If Federer is able to effectively use his defensive slice backhand, Gasquet’s explosive one-handed backhand will need to go up the line with increased frequency.

Prediction: Federer in three sets

Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic (1-0) vs. Juan Martin Del Potro (1-0)

Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro come into their second round-robin match with each having won their opening matches in three sets. Djokovic overcame Federer after dropping the second set in a tiebreak, and Del Potro rallied after losing the opening set in a tiebreak against Gasquet.  The winner of this match will become the leader of Group B moving into the third and final round-robin match.

Despite the breathtaking standard of tennis exhibited when these two square off, Djokovic has dominated the head-to-head record between them. Not only does the Serb lead the head to 10-3, but he has won six out of the last seven matches against the Argentine. On indoor hard courts, Djokovic leads 2-1. Their last meeting on this surface came in the semifinals of last year’s World Tour Finals which Djokovic won in three sets after losing the first.

Del Potro’s last victory over Djokovic came earlier this year in Indian Wells, when he also rallied from a set down to take out Djokovic in three sets. Djokovic and Del Potro’s last two clashes in Shanghai and Wimbledon were absolute thrillers, both of which Djokovic won in a final set.

Del Potro’s power can be blunted and suppressed by two factors: the court and his opponent. Typically, indoor hard courts, such as the one in the O2 Arena, are swift. And, typically, Del Potro’s opponents lack the speed or the defensive prowess to absorb his powerful strikes. Yet Djokovic is not one of these opponents, perhaps joined only by Rafael Nadal in that category. To make things even worse, the court has been playing very slowly this year, which confronts Del Potro with the arduous task of hitting through Djokovic and a court unreceptive to his offense.

Other than serving big, which is an obvious must for Del Potro, it would be wise for the Argentine to dissect the court, using sharp angles to break down Djokovic’s defense as opposed to trying to hit straight through the Serb.

On paper, this match is a blockbuster. But, in reality, this match is one-way traffic for Djokovic.

Prediction: Djokovic in two sets