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Previewing Serena vs. Muguruza in the Roland Garros Final

Jun 3rd 2016

Exactly 128 women began this tournament in search of a Roland Garros crown.  Now only two remain.  Serena Williams has lived up to her seeding and status as the favorite to reach this stage, while Garbiñe Muguruza has also held up her end of the bargain as the fourth seed and outside favorite.  No matter what, both women know that their tournament ends tomorrow.  What is less certain is whether Williams can add to her legacy or if Muguruza will score a victory for the next generation.

Serena Williams

It is so hard to bet against Williams adding to that legacy, especially in these types of situations.  She has won 70 titles in her career, 21 of which are major titles.  She is firmly established as the No. 1 player in the world, and when at her best, it is extremely difficult to compete with her.  She won the title in Rome to garner an extra boost of confidence before coming here, and she has contested so many more matches of this importance throughout her career.

But even the greatest legacies started with breaking through to win that first major, and there are many who believe that Muguruza has the skills to do exactly that.  The six-foot Spaniard has a boatload of talent and some serious firepower to go along with it.  She has already secured some impressive victories and earned two titles in her burgeoning career.  She made the tennis world stand up and take notice when she got to the final of Wimbledon last year, and she would love to back up that result by winning her maiden Grand Slam singles title in Paris.

Muguruza has a decent look at realizing that dream too, since she has enough weapons to not only compete with Williams but trouble her.  These are two women who are heavy ball-strikers, capable of cracking winners from either wing.  They also have supreme confidence in their serves and frequently utilize that shot to devastating effect.  The top seed is definitely the better mover, making it harder to put the ball away against her, but it is the Spaniard who has looked the more solid of the pair in the forecourt.  Williams would benefit more from opening up the court, while Muguruza might look to once again find success against the American by going hard and up the middle.  But when all is said and done, much of the trajectory of this match will be based on which woman can most consistently keep the other on the back foot while ensuring the unforced error count stays low.

Garbine Muguruza

The other factor in determining the outcome on Saturday will be how each woman mentally rises to or crumbles under the weight of the situation.  Williams and Muguruza have only ever met at the majors, and unfortunately for Muguruza, she has lost on three of those four occasions.  Her lone win over the American did come at this venue, however, and it was an emphatic 6-2, 6-2 victory.  Furthermore, her loss to Williams last year at Wimbledon came when the Spaniard was also faced with her first appearance in a major final.  Having been there and done that, she is less likely to be daunted by the occasion this time around.  She has the added benefit of playing a match where the pressure is not on her as the one expected to win, and it has to be said that she has looked the sharper of the two through the last few rounds.

Of course, how often have fans seen Williams raise her game when it matters most?  She has had to dig deep and pull off some spectacular Houdini acts on her journey to accumulating those 21 major singles titles, as well as through the last couple of rounds here.  But there is an inherent belief that she has – as do many of her opponents – that she will find a way to victory no matter the circumstances.  That said, Williams has had a few disappointments this year.  Despite being a heavy favorite in the Australian Open final and forcing a third set there, she was not able to put away a resilient Angelique Kerber.  She could not get herself going against Victoria Azarenka in the final of Indian Wells, and the same was true against Svetlana Kuznetsova in an early round in Miami.  Those losses could plant seeds of doubt in the American's mind, and the pressure of trying to tie Steffi Graf's tally of 22 major singles titles may only hinder her cause.

There is unquestionably a lot on the line for both women, who have set up what has the potential to be an entertaining and competitive final.   If Muguruza is truly ready for this moment, it is very conceivable that she could step up and take this match from Williams.  The odds favor Williams, though.  She has been here so often and still owns the best game in the sport.  She may be made to work for it, but the slight nod of the head has to go to her for the victory on Saturday.