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Previewing Serena, Thiem-Zverev at Roland Garros

May 27th 2016

The excitement always ramps up a notch once the third round is underway, since that is when the seeds begin to collide.  Among the clash of seeds is a match that features Serena Williams against Kristina Mladenovic.  It has the potential to be an intriguing clash, and one that could delight the home crowd if the Frenchwoman were to pull off the upset against the top seed.

Kristina Mladenovic

This match may also be an unpredictable one, since there is no telling which type of tennis you will get from the 26th seed.  She has never won a singles title, but she is still ranked within the top 30 and has been as high as No. 27.  She is a former top-five doubles player and is presently ranked No. 11 in that arena of play.  Mladenovic is capable of playing top-level tennis, as illustrated by her run to the quarterfinals of last year's US Open, but she can also struggle, as evidenced by her poor singles results in 2016.  She is essentially a streaky, confidence player, and what could make her dangerous coming into this match is that after reaching the semifinal in Strasbourg and scooping up doubles titles on the clay of Charleston, Stuttgart, and Madrid before arriving here, she ought to be feeling that confidence.

Williams is a player who rarely, if ever, lacks for confidence.  When at her best, there are few who can even hang with her on the court, let alone garner a victory.  One pretty much knows what they are going to get from Williams as well.  She is a sure bet in nearly every match she enters, which is why she has become one of the most decorated legends of the game.  By her lofty standards, she has had a bit of a lackluster season thus far, but another appearance in the Australian Open final is nothing to sneeze at.  She also secured her first title of 2016 on the clay of Rome, and with the way she has steamrolled though her first couple of matches here, she looks to be in fine form in Paris.

Serena Williams

If Williams is firing on all cylinders, that is going to be a problem for the Frenchwoman.  The American serves better, moves better, and due to her greater margin for error, is the more consistent from the back of the court.  There is no question that barring a lot of help from Williams, Mladenovic is going to have to red-line her game.  At six feet tall, the 26th seed has a good enough first serve to put herself in prime position in the rallies, but she has to put in a high percentage.  She is also arguably better than Williams in the forecourt, and she is going to have to get there as much as possible.  Despite her hard, flat groundstrokes, it is a losing proposition for her to try and beat Williams from the baseline.  She has to move forward to rob Williams of time and keep her off balance.

Having the wherewithal to execute against Williams is a tall task, however.  She is a commanding presence on the court with all of her experience and all that she has accomplished.  She is also the defending champion here and is playing someone who has only been to the second week of a major in singles play once.  The good news for Mladenovic is that she has never played Williams, so there is no losing history to mentally overcome.  She is going to have the home crowd behind her and, based on her most recent results, ought to be feeling good on the dirt.  The key for her will be, if she somehow gets a lead in this match, to hold her nerve.  She has a history of getting tight, and she can ill afford to show that to Williams, who will pounce on any sign of weakness.

Mladenovic finding herself in the driver's seat of this match is a big question mark, though.  She has looked solid through the first couple of rounds, but not as dominant as the American.  The competitiveness of this match is dependent on the Frenchwoman, but she is going to have to come up with something extra special to earn the upset.  Expect Williams to advance to Week 2.

Dominic Thiem

It is never easy getting started on the tour, trying to find one's way.  It is all about taking steps in the right direction, progressively making inroads at tournaments of varying levels.  But every upstart is hoping for that breakthrough, and they do not come much bigger than at a major.  Dominic Thiem and Alexander Zverev are both still searching for that type of breakthrough, and they will battle each other on Saturday to determine which one of them gets to keep that dream alive.

Thiem will be the player favored to advance.  At age 22 with a ranking of No. 15, he is one of the most promising young talents in the sport right now.  He has already won three titles this year, the most recent coming last week in Nice.  He is regularly making the last 16 or better at many events, and he has reached the second week of a major once, that coming two years ago at the US Open.  He would love to repeat that feat by making the second week in Paris with a win on Saturday.

Thiem's opponent, Zverev, has not achieved as much as the Austrian, but given all he has done while still just a teenager, it is no wonder that many are predicting a bright future for the German as well.  He is starting to string together victories on a consistent basis.  Zverev reached the semifinals in Montpellier and Munich, as well as the final of Nice.  He is playing in just his fourth main draw at a major with his appearance at Roland Garros, but that does not mean he is not ready to make his maiden showing in the second week of a major.

Alexander Zverev

Zverev will have a decent look at advancing as well. The German has a nice all-around game.  Standing at 6'6”, he gets good mileage out of his serve and moves exceptionally well for his height, so he has good court coverage.  He is not afraid to go for his shots and can pull the trigger from either wing.  His skills around the net can be shaky, but he does not fear moving forward and putting his opponent under pressure to come up with the pass.  

Thiem is a player who is up for any challenge that Zverev poses, however.  The Austrian also has a nice-looking game.  He gets a fair amount of pop off his one-handed backhand, which he can hit virtually anywhere in the court.  He favors his forehand, though, which is the shot he uses to inflict the greater damage.  Thiem is going to look to get into as many forehand exchanges as possible with the German, which naturally means he is also hoping to have a good serving day to put himself in the best position possible to dictate the terms of the rallies.

Not only does Thiem know what he has to do to win, but also he has the luxury of coming in secure in the knowledge that he has the mental edge.  He has defeated Zverev in their two prior meetings, both of which came this year on clay, including the final of Nice just before coming to Paris.  Clay is also the preferred surface of the 13th seed, and having spent a little more time on the tour, Thiem has precious experience at this level.  That said, Zverev will take solace from the fact that both of his losses to Thiem went the distance, so he knows he is right there on the cusp of gaining a victory.  As the underdog, he also gets to play with less pressure, so he knows this is a winnable match.

Suffice it to say, this has all the ingredients to be an entertaining match and may well be a glimpse into the future of men's tennis to come.  These are two of the youngest talents in the game, and one of them is going to find himself in the round of 16 at Roland Garros.  Zverev has the game to get through, and he knows there is little to choose between the two.  But the smart money has to be on Thiem.  He has edged out the German twice already this year, it is not completely uncharted territory for him, and this is his favorite surface.  Look for Thiem to advance to the second week of a major for the second time in his burgeoning career.