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Previewing Serena, Murray-Gasquet at Roland Garros

May 30th 2016

It was a disappointing Monday at Roland Garros as play was washed out for the day, but on the bright side, it means a full roster for Tuesday.  Among the matches carried over is the fourth-round encounter between Serena Williams and Elina Svitolina, and fans will anxiously wait to see if this match turns out to be worth the wait.

On paper, there is not a lot to suggest that this will be an overly close contest.  The young Ukrainian is one of the brightest hopes for women's tennis, but she is still finding her way.  Seeded 18th and ranked as high as No. 14 earlier this year, Svitolina has already picked up a title in 2016 with her win in Kuala Lumpur.  She did reach the semifinals of Dubai and the fourth round of Miami, but she hardly looked in fine form on the dirt coming into Paris.  This tournament also marks just the second time she has been to the second week of a major, so there is no way to know how comfortably she will manage the occasion.

Serena Williams

Contrast that with Williams, who is the defending champion here and has won numerous singles and doubles major titles.  And while her season has not been as good as she might have hoped, especially when compared to her dominance in 2015, it has still been far better than the 18th seed's.  She also picked up a key title in Rome before coming to the French capital, further solidifying Williams' place as the heavy favorite at Roland Garros.

Given how their games stack up, the American will be a heavy favorite in this contest as well.  Svitolina's preferred shot is her serve, but she is up against the woman known for having the greatest serve in the history of the sport.  Williams owns superior firepower from the ground too, and although Svitolina is not a poor defender by any stretch, the top seed is still quicker around the court.  There is no question Svitolina is going to have to go out of her comfort zone by going bigger and playing closer to the lines, as well as have a good serving day.  She has to do something to take Williams out of her comfort zone, since she is going to need some help from the world No. 1 if she is to get the upset.

Making Williams uncomfortable is going to be a difficult task, since she is likely to walk on the court feeling plenty confident.  She has vastly more experience playing these types of matches on these stages, and she is also playing better clay-court tennis at the moment.  In addition to that, Williams is a perfect 3-0 against Svitolina, and she knows that short of the Ukrainian playing the match of her life, she does not have the kind of weapons that can trouble her. 

Elina Svitolina

Svitolina will certainly be playing David to Williams' Goliath, but she might take some hope from the fact that she did go three sets with the American when they met last year in Melbourne.  She is also a former Roland Garros Junior Champion, and she reached the last eight here last year.  Furthermore, she receives consultant coaching tips from former No. 1 Justine Henin, a player who knew a thing or two about winning in Paris. 

It is unlikely that any of that will be enough to help the Ukrainian cause the massive upset.  True, strange things have happened on the women's tour of late, so a Svitolina victory is not out of the realm of possibility.  It is just highly unlikely.  The top seed has too much game, too much experience, and too much confidence.  Barring a bad performance from Williams or an inspired one from Svitolina, the American is moving on to another Roland Garros quarterfinal.

Andy Murray

While most competitors are playing catch up, a handful of lucky men find themselves in a position to vie for a place in the semifinals of Roland Garros.  Among those fortunate few are Andy Murray and Richard Gasquet, who will square off on Tuesday to determine whose streak of good fortune will continue into the final four in Paris.

While both men will be keen to advance, the home crowd will desperately be hoping that it is Gasquet who walks away with the victory.  The ninth seed was touted as a future champion before he was even a teenager, and unfortunately for him, things have never quite panned out that way.  He has had a respectable career, winning 13 titles, including his title run in Montpellier earlier this season.  He is presently ranked No. 12 but has been as high as No. 7, and he has made multiple trips to the later rounds of the majors.  Sadly for him, however, he has ultimately fallen short of winning them.

Unlike Gasquet, Murray has realized Grand Slam success.  He sated Britain's hunger for a homegrown champion with his Wimbledon victory in 2013, and he went all the way in Flushing Meadows prior to that.  He is presently ranked a career-high No. 2, has become a regular in the late stages of the majors, and has numerous titles to his name, including many Masters shields.  He made it to the final four of this event in 2015, and at the very least, he wants to replicate that result in 2016.

Despite some scratchy play in the early rounds here, the Scot is starting to settle into his game and presents a formidable challenge to the Frenchman.  His tall and lanky stature allows him to track down more balls and make better inroads with his serve.  The quality of his return also means that he is likely to have more looks on Gasquet's serve than the other way around, and he tends to get more pop off his groundstrokes.  As for Gasquet, he is a flashy player and definitely can boast of having the more versatile backhand.  His one-hander is a thing of beauty, and he will need to have it firing on all cylinders to open up the court and keep the Scot on the move.  But while both men will need to utilize their strengths, the key component in this match will be which one of them forces himself to be offensive.  Each of them has a tendency to slip into defensive patterns, and although Murray can get by with that a little more than Gasquet, this match is apt to be won by the man who steps up to take it rather than waiting for his opponent to donate it.

Richard Gasquet

The other pivotal factor in this match is the mentality of the two combatants.  There is no doubt that Murray is going to be brimming with belief.  He had a solid spring before coming to Roland Garros, has been here far more often, and owns a 7-3 record against Gasquet.  He still has a tendency to go off the boil when things turn south, but more often than not, those bouts are becoming shorter and less detrimental to his chances of advancing.

The real question is going to be how Gasquet handles the situation.  Having the support of the home crowd can be a blessing and a curse, since it is a wonderful feeling to have so many pulling for you, but also a terrible pressure of not wanting to let down the fans.  His head-to-head against the Scot may also be an issue, but not because it is a losing record.  Many of their matches have been close.  Instead, it is that Gasquet has lost to Murray at a major twice when leading two sets to love, including once here at Roland Garros.  He is going to have to put those demons behind him if he is to get the upset on Tuesday.

This should be an intriguing battle, particularly with the crowd so heavily invested.  After the performance that he put on against Nishikori, the Frenchman has a look at the upset, but Murray will be ready.  It may be close, but expect the Scot to rise to the occasion and dash the hopes of the home nation.