Saturday marks the final day of round-robin play at the ATP World Tour Finals as Group B concludes with Juan Martin Del Potro taking on Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic squaring off against Richard Gasquet. Djokovic has already won Group B, and the second semifinal spot will belong to the winner of the Del Potro-Federer match.

Roger Federer (1-1) vs Juan Martin Del Potro (1-1)

These two men have everything to play for when they meet Saturday afternoon in their final round-robin match. The winner advances to the semifinals, while the loser goes home.  Both Del Potro and Federer come into this match having defeated Gasquet and lost to Djokovic.

Federer leads the head-to-head record 14-5. Notably, Del Potro has won four of their seven meetings on indoor hard courts, the surface of their last four encounters. The last time that they met came in the quarterfinals of the Paris Masters 1000 tournament, when Federer won in three sets. But they also met in the Basel final a week before, when Del Potro won in three sets.  

When these two step on the court Saturday, therefore, there will be no secrets. Federer and Del Potro have seen a lot of each other in the last several weeks, and this match should be a perfect way to cap off their series of clashes.

One of the central topics of discussion this week has been the court speed, which could have monumental implications for this match. For Federer, a slower court means that he will have an easier time responding to Del Potro’s powerful groundstrokes, but it also means that he will have a harder time moving the big man across the baseline.

It is also important to consider the high bounce of this court. This quality puts Federer at a disadvantage. Del Potro can rely on attacking Federer with lower-risk, higher-margin topspin forehands. Directed toward Federer’s backhand, this a play that Del Potro will surely execute with regularity.

The higher bounce also makes it harder for Federer to keep the ball out of the towering Del Potro’s strike zone and to make him play lower balls created by underspin backhands.

Federer has not shone in many big matches this year. Can he reverse this trend against Del Potro? Only time (and Federer’s forehand) will tell.

Prediction: Del Potro in three sets

Richard Gasquet (0-2) vs. Novak Djokovic (2-0)

The last round-robin match of the tournament will take place between Richard Gasquet and Novak Djokovic Saturday night. It is the only match that has absolutely no implications for the rest of the tournament. Gasquet has been eliminated from contention, and Djokovic has clinched the top spot in Group B already. Regardless of the outcome, Djokovic will face Stanislas Wawrinka in one of Sunday’s semifinals, and Gasquet will head home for the winter afterward.

Djokovic leads the head to head in this matchup 9-1 and has not lost to Gasquet since 2007. The only time that these two have met on an indoor hard court came in Madrid seven years ago, when Djokovic won in three sets.

This match pits arguably the best one-handed backhand in tennis against arguably the best two-handed backhand in tennis. Thus, the cross court backhand rallies should be quite a spectacle.

The problem that Gasquet has in this match is that there is nothing that he does better than Djokovic. He also enjoys playing a relatively defensive style of tennis, which is a style almost guaranteed not to work against the Serb. Expect Djokovic to take the Gasquet backhand out of play and exploit his opponent’s far weaker forehand. Against the best defender and returner in tennis, it will be necessary for Gasquet to stand closer to the baseline and go for much more off his serve and groundstrokes.

It is hard to imagine Gasquet being able to win a set, let alone ending Djokovic’s 19-match winning streak.

Prediction: Djokovic in two sets