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Previewing Murray vs. Raonic

Jan 29th 2016

It is amazing how some things can be simultaneously so near and yet so far.  After nearly two weeks of tennis, Andy Murray and Milos Raonic find themselves within just a couple of matches of hoisting a major singles trophy.  But Murray and Raonic know that there is still work to be done.  The final will not be a picnic, but before they can even think of that, they must first face the task of overcoming the other, knowing only one of them will be able to take one more step toward the Australian Open crown.

Andy Murray

That Murray finds himself in this position is hardly a surprise.  The Australian Open has been one of his most consistent majors, and he has been to the final here on four occasions, including last year.  He is back to his career-high ranking of No. 2, and as a member of the Big Four with a Wimbledon and a US Open title to his name, the Scot is expected to reach these latter stages of the majors.

Raonic's appearance in the final four is less expected but not stunning either.  The 13th seed was ranked as high as No. 4 last spring before niggling injuries saw his ranking take a dip.  He has been touted as one of the most promising talents of the next generation, and after defeating Roger Federer in the final of Brisbane, he became a popular dark horse pick poised for a deep run in Melbourne.

Raonic has now lived up to that dark horse status and has a half-decent look at moving through to the final.  Murray will not be an easy barrier to overcome, however.  He owns one of the best returns in the sport, which makes him apt to put more of the Canadian's big serves back in play than any opposition Raonic has faced in the tournament thus far.  Murray also boasts greater versatility and a decisively better backhand, which is the groundstroke he should look to trade with the 13th seed.  In addition to that, Murray can play superior defense when he needs it, and his consistency from the back of the court could well test the patience and nerves of Raonic.

Milos Raonic

Raonic wants to avoid having his patience tested.  Instead, he should be looking to keep the points short.  He can accomplish that in part by having an excellent serving day.  Raonic has a monster serve that even when pitted against Murray should translate into a fair share of aces.  He wants to strive to use his powerful forehand to dictate play whenever possible as well.  His backhand and movement have improved the last couple of seasons, so it is imperative that he not bail too early when he does find himself in the extended rallies.  Lastly, it has to be on a great approach shot, but the Canadian must get up to the net as much as possible.  Murray is nearly impossible to hit through, but knocking off volleys is a better way to rob him of time than trying to out slug him from the baseline.

As daunting of a challenge as Murray presents, managing the moment may be equally challenging for Raonic.  This is still relatively new territory for him.  Raonic's only other showing in the final four of a major came two years ago at Wimbledon, where he logged a nervous performance against Federer.  But Raonic has matured since then.  He has secured wins over the likes of Federer and Rafael Nadal, and hehas actually split his six previous meetings with Murray at three apiece, so he knows victory on Friday is possible.  Then again, Murray will be feeling plenty confident in his own chances for victory.  He is used to playing these matches, and he has played some of his best tennis Down Under.  He will not take Raonic lightly, but he knows he has faced and overcome stiffer competition and will be optimistic about doing so again in this contest.

In the end, this has all of the ingredients to be an entertaining semifinal.  Raonic is playing well enough to earn the upset if he proves able to rise to the occasion.  That said, do not bet against Murray.  He has been here so often, and his consistency is bound to grind the Canadian into submission.  It may be close, but Murray likely gets through to his fifth final in Melbourne.