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Previewing Murray-Raonic in the Wimbledon Men's Final

Jul 9th 2016

On one side of the net is Andy Murray.  He is a familiar face at this stage of this major and a native son who is a special favorite here.  He is the lone member of the Big Four to have reached the final with the chance to continue their dominance at the majors.  Across the net is Milos Raonic.  He is contesting his first major final and has become the first Canadian man to reach a major final in the process.  Long considered one of the most promising talents in the men’s game, he now appears poised to deliver on it.  One match stands between them and Wimbledon glory, but only one can leave London victorious.

The smart money is on Murray to be the man hoisting the trophy.  A former champion here with two major titles to his name as well as multiple runner-up trophies, he is the finalist who has had the opportunity to experience what it means to play a match of this magnitude.  He has also put together the better season not just at the majors but at virtually every tournament they have entered. He became the heavy favorite the second Novak Djokovic exited the event, and that will not change in this final.

Milos Raonic

But people should not be discounting the Canadian's chances of shocking Murray.  Raonic's numbers may not quite be on par with the Scot's, but he has still been piecing together quite the remarkable season.  He has secured his fair share of wins over the sport's best, and now he has broken new ground by reaching the Wimbledon final.  He has steadily been coming into his own, and he would dearly love to make his season even more memorable by capturing his first Grand Slam singles crown.

The sixth seed has everything he needs in his arsenal to become a champion.  At one time he was little more than a big first serve, but Raonic is now a more complete player.  His second serve has become nearly as formidable as his first, and he has been backing both up beautifully from the ground.  His backhand is solid although not lethal groundstroke, but his forehand is a shot to be reckoned with.  He can bludgeon it from just about anywhere on the court, although he is particularly fond of going inside-out.  Those strengths alone are enough to potentially trouble Murray, but the key will be how Raonic plays at the net.  He has been exceptional in the forecourt of late, and he will have to be once again on Sunday.  It is imperative that he rob the Scot of time and keep the points short.  Long rallies favor the second seed, since that is playing his game.  Raonic has to power through Murray, which means he has to go for it and execute at a consistently high level to garner the upset.

Murray is unlikely to be intimidated by the Canadian's powerful game, however.  He has faced down plenty of big ball-strikers in his day, including Tomas Berdych, whom he routinely dismissed in the semifinals.  He has shown that he is extremely difficult to hit through and often goads his opponents into going for too much, thereby extracting errors.  The second seed also owns one of the greatest returns in the game, which means he is bound to put more returns in play against Raonic than the Canadian has seen through his prior six rounds.  Then there are Murray's offensive skills.  He is playing further into the court and hitting the ball harder than he did when he won here three years ago.  It is that willingness to take the initiative, when coupled with his spectacular defense, that has made him such a feared presence on tour this season.  It is also why he is seen by so many as the likely victor in his upcoming match with Raonic.

Andy Murray

Of course, the other element heavily in Murray's favor is his experience.  He has already been here on multiple occasions and won two major titles.  He is having one of the best seasons of his career, so he is in a good place mentally too.  He enjoys a winning record in his rivalry with Raonic—including having won their last five encounters – and should be aware that he is overall the better player.

None of that is to say that Raonic will be lacking in belief, however.  He went the distance with Murray earlier this year in the semifinals of the Australian Open as well as a few weeks ago in the final of Queen's Club.  He has shown new mental toughness with his come-from-behind win against David Goffin at this event and played some very impressive ball against Roger Federer to reach the championship match.  There is no way of knowing how a player will react to playing in his first major final, but following his semifinal victory, the Canadian did not sound like someone getting ahead of himself.  He has not lost sight of the fact that there is still work to be done, and after having risen to the occasion in the semifinals, he must believe that he can do the same on Sunday.

If Raonic is somehow able to treat this match like any other, he has a good look at upsetting Murray and the home nation.  He has a big enough game to trouble the Scot on any surface but especially on a surface as quick and slick as grass.  That said, Murray remains the obvious favorite.  He looks so confident, and outside of his blip in the quarterfinals against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, he has been playing nearly flawless tennis of late.  He is a tough out in a best-of-five format, but even more so here against a guy contesting his first major final.  It could be close and entertaining, but in the end, Murray's experience should win out.