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Previewing Murray-Isner, Muguruza-Kuznetsova

May 28th 2016

There are certain things a fan expects to see at a major.  Andy Murray still alive in the second week is one of them.  An American man in the second week of Roland Garros is not.  But American John Isner has thus far managed to defy those odds, and he will look to continue to defy them further by earning the upset over the second-seeded Scot to advance to the last eight.

John Isner

Isner has put together a very solid career.  He has had a rough go of it in 2016 and finds himself currently ranked No. 17, but he has been as high as No. 9 and a regular in and around the top 10.  He has accumulated a number of impressive victories throughout his career as well.  His booming serve and quick-strike brand of tennis makes him an uncomfortable opponent to play and has earned him a reputation as someone whom not even the most accomplished of players wants to see on the other side of the net.  Isner has historically somewhat under-performed at the major, but he still has ample experience reaching this stage of a major and will be eager to seal a good run here in Paris.

Unlike Isner, Murray has rarely been one to perform poorly at the majors.  On the contrary, he has regularly made the last eight or better or several occasions, and he has won both the US Open and Wimbledon.  Particularly when it comes to the biggest events in the sport, he typically only loses to his fellow members of the Big Four.

Isner knows he faces a stiff challenge in the Scot.  Murray is unquestionably the better mover, and on a surface like clay, where defense is most richly rewarded, there is a distinct advantage for the second seed.  Murray also possesses greater variety, allowing him to more readily improvise when in a sticky situation.  In addition to that, Murray is one of the best returners in the game, which means Isner is apt to see more of his serves come back than he does against most opponents.  That does not leave Isner much margin for error.  He knows he has to have a good serving day and be prepared to pull off more one-two punches rather than relying on a high tab of aces.  He is also going to have to take more chances on his second serve and be prepared to take risks with his other strength, the forehand, to keep Murray on the defensive.  The longer the rallies go, the more they will favor the Scot.

Andy Murray

Murray also enjoys a huge mental edge in this contest.  He is a perfect 5-0 agaist the American, and as mentioned earlier, has enjoyed far more success at this level.  Furthermore, after reaching the semifinals of Monte Carlo, reaching the final of Madrid, and winning the title in Rome, he has shown he was playing top clay-court tennis before arriving in Paris.  Isner in comparison has hardly played on the clay at all this year.  He reached the semifinals of the clay event in Houston, and his only foray onto the European clay courts came in Geneva, where he lost his opening match.  Yet Isner may glean some hope in this match.  For all that he looked in fine form before arriving in Paris, Murray nearly found himself knocked out in both the first and second rounds here.  Isner also knows that, although he has ultimately failed to notch a win over the Brit, a number of their sets have gone to tiebreaks.  If he can find a way to eke out one of those tiebreaks, he might just be able to turn the tables on Murray.

All of that said, there are few, if any, who are expecting Isner to upset Murray on Sunday.  The second seed is simply the better player, and especially on a surface like clay that blunts the effectiveness of Isner's primary weapons, pulling off the upset is a big ask.  That does not mean that it cannot be entertaining, though.  He has the skills to keep it close and intriguing, but the Scot should pull through to advance to the last eight.

Garbine Muguruza

From the time that a major approaches through the time that it gets underway, the focus invariably falls on the favorites.  There is so much talk about potential future match-ups and possible hurdles that it is easy to lose sight of those players who might play spoiler.  Garbiñe Muguruza and Svetlana Kuznetsova are two such players, and after they meet on Sunday, one of them is going to find herself in the quarterfinals of Roland Garros. 

Kuznetsova knows what it takes to find success here in Paris.  She won the Roland Garros title seven years ago, and she won the US Open five years prior to that.  The Russian has always been a bit of an enigma, though.  She has loads of talent, but as evidenced by her streaky results, there is no telling how well or how poorly she will play on any given day.  She has managed to turn back the clock and dial in to her best with greater frequency in 2016, however.  She picked up the title in Sydney, defeated Serena Williams en route to the final of Miami, and reached the quarterfinals of Rome. 

But Muguruza could pose a tricky riddle for the Russian.  Not much attention has been paid to the fourth seed, who has efficiently worked her way to week 2, but perhaps more should be.  The six-foot Spaniard came in to Roland Garros off a semifinal showing in Rome as well as a quarterfinal finish in Stuttgart.  She has reached the quarterfinals of this event in the last two years, and she surprised everyone last season when she emerged as a Wimbledon finalist.   She is a player not to be trifled with, and she will like her chances of making the last eight here in Paris for a third consecutive year.

Svetlana Kuznetsova

Each player brings a lot to the table in this match, which is why it could make for an enthralling fourth-round encounter.  Both women are former top-10 doubles players, so they recognize when to advance to the net and how to get the job done once they are up there.  Both competitors unabashedly go for their shots from both wings and from anywhere on the court as well.  Kuznetsova does enjoy a decisive advantage in the movement department, but it is Muguruza who has the edge on serve with her greater height.  The Spaniard also tends to get a bit more mustard on her groundstrokes.  It is going to come down to who can dictate the form this match takes.  Muguruza should be looking to do something similar to what she did in her upset of Serena Williams here two years ago, which is to go hard and down the middle.  That avoids giving Kuznetsova angles to work with and lessens the chances of this match turning into a track meet.  For Kuznetsova, she should be looking to open up the court with short angles and get Muguruza on the move.  The Spaniard is far less effective at hitting on the run, and the Russian wants to avoid allowing the fourth seed to tee off on too many shots.

As important as strategy is, however, the key factor in this match is going to be who handles her nerves best.  They have only met once, and that came last year on the clay of Madrid, where Kuznetsova denied Muguruza and the home fans a Spanish victory in three sets.  Kuznetsova obviously has been here before, knows she is playing some good ball, and is rarely intimidated by any opponent.  That said, Muguruza has increasingly looked like she is ready for the big stage, and she also is secure in the knowledge that she has made it out of this round the last two years.  If she can manage the expectations that come with being the higher seed, her bigger game should see her through to the finish.

Of course, women's Grand Slam tennis has not exactly gone to form recently.  This has a very 50-50 feel to it, but whether it pans out that way depends on which Kuznetsova shows up to play.  The nod has to go Muguruza, irrespective of the competitiveness of this affair, but either woman could advance and would be worthy of a quarterfinal berth.