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Previewing Murray-Berdych, Federer-Raonic in the Wimbledon Semifinals

Jul 8th 2016

Even with the early exodus of Novak Djokovic and the absence of Rafael Nadal, fans are just a couple of matches away from yet another major final that features two members of the Big Four.  Only two men stand in the way of that happening, and one of them is Tomas Berdych.  If the Czech wishes to defy expectations, he is going to have to dash the hopes of the home nation by defeating Andy Murray.

Andy Murray

Murray is the second seed and the clear favorite to win not only this match but this tournament.  He is a former champion here, solidly ranked No. 2, and reached the finals at the year's first two majors.  He has proved extremely difficult to beat this season, and he has already won a couple of majors, including Wimbledon in 2013.  But as impressive as all of that is, he will not be dismissing the 10th seed's chances.  Nor should anyone else. 

Berdych has not achieved as much as the Scot, but that does not mean he is incapable of advancing to the final at Murray's expense.  He has tasted success at the Masters 1000 level and routinely gone deep at the majors.  He has been a regular member of the top 10 for the last several seasons, since he has always been in the thick of things.  He is seen as someone who can challenge the established elite, and he has garnered his share of wins over that group.

A main factor behind Berdych's past success stems from his easy power.  He is able to effortlessly produce penetrating groundstrokes from both wings as well as unleash a potent serve.  For his size, he moves exceptionally well too, and he has increasingly improved at charging forward and finishing points at the net.  In total, it is a game that translates well to the grass.

Murray also has a game that translates well to grass, however.  He transitions well and exhibits deft touch in the forecourt.  The variety in his game is only further complimented by the turf as well.  Furthermore, the grass encourages Murray to be more aggressive, and that is when he is at his best.  But the two things that could prove pivotal in this encounter are Murray’s return and defense.  As big as Berdych's serve is, it is likely that the second seed is going to put a lot of balls back in play.  Likewise, the Czech will find it hard to hit through Murray and even get him out of position.  The Scot is going to keep asking Berdych if he can find a way to hit that one extra shot, and in a match of this magnitude, that is a question that will become harder and harder to answer in the affirmative.

Tomas Berdych

Part of the reason why it may get more difficult for Berdych to keep consistently playing high-risk tennis is that he has not been here as often as Murray.  Murray has two major titles and several other major final appearances to go along with them.  The 10th seed, by contrast, has only ever made one major final.  Of course, that one major final did come here in London.  He also has a respectable head-to-head against Murray, with the Scot leading their rivalry 8-6.  That said, Murray has won their last four meetings.  The second seed also has the home crowd firmly in his corner, so there is no question that Berdych is the man facing the more daunting set of hurdles if he to somehow earn the victory.

A Czech victory is definitely not an impossibility.  Berdych's history against the Scot suggests he has the tools to garner the upset, and most are in agreement that the 10th seed has the requisite skill set to actually win a major.  But just because he can does not mean that he will.  Murray is still clearly the favorite, irrespective of the disaster he nearly suffered in the quarterfinals against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.  If he buckles down, stays focused, and comes up with anything near his best, he will be one of the two men vying for the trophy come Sunday.

Milos Raonic

The semifinal in the top half of the men's draw was supposed to feature Novak Djokovic as he attempted to take another step toward the calendar-year Grand Slam.  But the Serb fell early, and in his place, Milos Raonic has emerged to face Roger Federer.  For the Canadian, this is a chance to break new ground and perhaps realize the potential so many have already seen in him. For the Swiss, this is an opportunity to turn back the clock and prove that he can still reign victorious on the grandest stages.  By the end of play on Friday, only one of them will have the chance to pursue his dream.

Raonic is a man whom many have always considered to be a threat to go all the way at a major, and in 2016 he has finally looked like a player ready to do so.  He kicked off the season with a title run in Brisbane and backed that up with a semifinal showing in Melbourne.  Since then, he has made the quarterfinals or better at almost every event he has entered, including a finalist appearance at the Queen's Club event.  Perhaps buoyed by the addition of former Wimbledon champion John McEnroe to his team, the sixth seed may now be ready to take the next significant step in his career.

Federer has taken nearly all the steps one can take in a career, but he still loves the game and is aiming to add to his phenomenal legacy.  He is the winner of 17 major singles titles – seven of them here at Wimbledon – along with numerous other accolades and records.  He was the most dominant player in the sport in the mid-2000s, and while the Swiss will never return to that level of dominance, that does not mean he cannot still get the job done at a major.  His best looks at doing so are at Wimbledon and the US Open, so he will be keen to make the most of the situation in this semifinal.

Raonic is not likely to make it easy, however.  The Canadian has long been seen as one of the players whom nobody wants to face, thanks in large part to his huge serve.  In recent years, he has honed other parts of his game to back up that formidable weapon.  His forehand is lethal in its own right, and his backhand is no longer the liability that it once was.  He has also developed great hands at the net and a solid smash.  With weapons like those, he is in with a fighting chance no matter who his opponent is.

Roger Federer

Federer may not own the biggest serve, but it has proven to be clutch and effective throughout the years.  He can still spank a forehand, and his one-handed backhand has served him well on the grass in the past.  His one-handed slice in particular has been troublesome for some of the bigger players like Raonic, especially since he can use it to bring them forward on his terms instead of theirs. 

Even as fans enjoy watching these two warriors pit their strengths against each other, the most fascinating aspect about this match is who is psychologically ready to step up to the plate.  The obvious answer would be Federer.  That was the case when they met at this stage two years ago.  Federer has vastly more experience and already has 17 major singles titles to none for Raonic.  He also enjoys a decisive 9-2 lead in their rivalry.  But it is the Swiss who has been battling injuries and a lack of match play this season, while Raonic has truly been coming into his own.  After giving Andy Murray all he could handle in a five-set thriller in the semifinals of the Australian Open, he looks like a man who may be ready for this moment.

If the Canadian is ready for this stage, that could be curtains for Federer.  Raonic boasts plenty of weapons to secure his share of the points and take it to the Swiss.  But Federer has a tried and true record at Wimbledon.  It is difficult to discount that.  This is a close call.  Most signs in 2016 point to a Raonic victory, but the gut feeling leans towards the Swiss.  He came back from the brink against Marin Cilic, and it would be a shame if he did so only to fall a match shy of the championship.