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Previewing Federer-Cilic, Murray-Tsonga at Wimbledon

Jul 5th 2016

The men's quarterfinals have arrived, and a familiar face in Roger Federer is once again among the last eight.  The Swiss has been on cruise control throughout this tournament, but he knows he is going to have to step it up on Wednesday against his talented opponent, Marin Cilic.

Roger Federer

Federer is often touted as one of the greatest, if not the greatest, to have ever played the game.  He has accomplished nearly all there is to do in tennis.  He has spent more weeks ranked No. 1 than any other player and has garnered more Grand Slam singles titles than any other man in history with 17.  Nearly half of those have come at Wimbledon.  Grass has always been one of the most lucrative surfaces for the Swiss, and no doubt he is hoping it will prove to be so again as he seeks to add to his major tally with title No. 18.

Federer will not be dismissing Cilic's chances of derailing his title hopes, however.  The lanky Croat has a game that translates well to grass.  He is a previous winner of the tune-up event at Queen's and reached the semifinals there this year, where he pushed Andy Murray to three sets before coming over to Wimbledon.  He is no stranger to second-week appearances at the majors and has reached the quarterfinals here the last two seasons.  Most important for him, though, is that he does have a major title to his credit, that coming two years ago at the US Open, and he defeated Federer on his way to that momentous win.  He will be seeking a repeat performance of that here as he attempts to win his maiden Wimbledon title.

Marin Cilic

Cilic has the weapons to pull off the upset.  His height gives him a bit of an advantage on his first serve, and he has shown himself capable of slapping winners from either wing.  For his size, he also covers the court exceptionally well and cuts an imposing figure at the net, which he manages to approach on a fairly frequent basis.  But the issue for Cilic is that Federer generally does all of those things as well as, if not better than, the Croat.  He has a little more variety in his game, and he is apt to take the net away from Cilic more than any of the opponents the ninth seed has played to this juncture.  If Federer has truly begun to tap into his finest tennis, the Croat is going to be facing an uphill battle.

Cilic knows just how tall of a task it can be to take down Federer, since he has only managed to do so once in the previous six times that they have met.  Four of Federer's victories have also come in routine fashion.  The good news for Cilic in all of this is that they have split their only two meetings at majors, both coming at the US Open, and Cilic did win their last meeting, which came at the 2014 US Open in straight sets.  He is well rested following Kei Nishikori's retirement in his fourth-round match, and he knows he is playing a Federer who is not yet match-tough and has yet to be truly tested in this event.  Federer is aware of the challenges that Cilic poses, however.  He has seen it all in his career, and he is unlikely to hit the panic button no matter what situation he finds himself in during this encounter.  He knows if he has sufficiently shaken off the rust, he is the superior combatant.

This is the match where fans and Federer will get the most accurate gauge of where the Swiss is with his game right now.  Cilic is a big step up from anyone he faced through the first week, which is why Cilic stands a decent chance of earning a second victory over the third seed.  But it is hard to bet against Federer at this venue.  So many things seem to have aligned perfectly for him thus far at Wimbledon that it appears likely he should advance to the semifinals, and provided he is able to successfully turn back the clock, he will.

Andy Murray

No fewer than 128 men came to Wimbledon in search of a title, and now only eight remain.  It should come as a shock to no one that Andy Murray is one of those eight.  The Scot has made the semifinals or better in six of the last seven years at the All England Club.  His opponent is veteran Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, a man who has been to the final four here on one occasion.  They will meet on Wednesday to determine if it is business as usual for Murray or if Tsonga will disappoint the home nation by causing the upset.

There will not be many betting against the second seed's odds of advancing, since he is the better player.  Murray is currently ranked No. 2 and outside of a couple of hiccups in March has proven a very difficult man to defeat throughout this season.  He is a two-time major singles champion, the second of his two titles coming here at Wimbledon, and grass is one of his best surfaces.  He has made the final at the last two majors, and with Novak Djokovic having already been dispatched from this tournament, the Scot now stands as the firm favorite to reign victorious at the year's third major.

Just because the odds-makers are not figuring on anyone impeding Murray's march to the title, however, does not mean that he will be taking a victory against Tsonga as a given.  The Frenchman is ranked just outside the top 10 and has been as high as No. 5.  He has often been to the business end of the majors and even reached the final of the Australian Open back in 2008.  He has won a couple of the prestigious Masters events and earned some stellar wins in his career, including a win over Roger Federer at this tournament after being down two sets.  He may know that he is up against it with Murray, but he will be aware that it is possible for him to get through at Murray's expense.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

A lot has to go right for Tsonga if he is get the better of Murray, though.  It is imperative that he put in a high percentage of first serves.  That is what sets him up to go after his forehand as well as approach the net.  Unfortunately for the 12th seed, that is easier said than done.  The Scot owns one of the best returns in the sport and clearly possesses the better backhand as well.  Murray has also become a virtual backboard, which can be troublesome for an explosive shot-maker like Tsonga, and the Scot has learned to better complement his defense with the right degree of offense.

If all of that were not enough, Murray enjoys a clear mental edge in this rivalry too.  He has only ever lost to Tsonga twice in 14 meetings, and he has been in this position more frequently than the Frenchman.  Since he has been healthier in recent months, Murray has been able to secure more valuable match play, and after coming in off the most successful clay stint of his career, he has to be brimming with confidence.  Throw in that he has reunited with Ivan Lendl, the coach with whom he won both of his major titles, and it is likely Murray believes he can do just about anything right now.

So where does Tsonga find any glimmer of hope?  He did come back from two sets down against Isner, and when a player comes back from the brink like that, it can breathe new life into his chances.  As for his individual match-up against Murray, he has to remember that he has played numerous close sets with the Scot, and both of their meetings here have gone four sets.  Lastly, he will be conscious of the fact that he is one of those players who when he catches fire can defeat anyone.

If Tsonga does somehow manage to catch fire, this could turn into an entertaining encounter, and maybe even an upset.  But that is not likely.  Murray has become so steady that short of Tsonga managing to red-line his game for the duration of the match, the Scot is likely to weather any storm the Frenchman throws at him.  He is well rested, more experienced, and playing too well right now.  As long as he keep his composure and maintains that level, Murray is going to find himself back in the semifinals yet again.