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Previewing Djokovic vs. Murray at Roland Garros

Jun 5th 2016

If at first you do not succeed, try, try again.  That is a phrase of advice many have heard and one that seems appropriate for Novak Djokovic.  The Serb has once again battled his way to the final to earn a fourth crack at becoming a Roland Garros champion.  The last man standing between him and that coveted prize is familiar friend and foe Andy Murray.  It is set to be a blockbuster final that will result in one man being crowned a first-time champion at Roland Garros.

Novak Djokovic

On paper, Djokovic is the obvious favorite in spite of the fact that his opponent is ranked and seeded No. 2.  Both are members of the Big Four, but it is the Serb who has enjoyed greater success.  He has 11 major singles titles to Murray's two, is the all-time leader when it comes to the Masters shields, and has won nearly 30 more titles overall than the Scot.  But Murray has been right there just a hair behind the top seed, regularly making the business end of the biggest tournaments in the sport.  He has also enjoyed the slightly better clay swing, and although he got off to a very scratchy start here in Paris, he appears to be firing on all cylinders currently.

Both men clearly have ample reason to feel optimistic coming into Sunday's final but also will be keenly aware of the challenge the other presents.  There are no secrets between the pair either, so this could easily turn into a chess match of the highest order.  They have relatively similar games in that they are exceptional movers with excellent returns and are remarkably consistent from the back of the court.  On their best days, however, it is Djokovic who typically does things just a little bit better.  He tends to be the more aggressive of the pair, so the onus will be on Murray to do what he did to upset Djokovic in the Rome final by staying up on the baseline and taking it to the Serb.  Doing that should also afford him opportunities to get to the net, which is the one area where he has an edge on Djokovic.

Andy Murray

With so little to choose between their games, that aspect of this match could come down to the finest of margins.  But even if that were not the case, there is no question that the outcome of this final rests primarily on the psychological state of the two combatants.  Ironically, that could be what drastically helps Murray's cause.  At first glance, it might seem crazy to suggest he has any sort of a mental edge over Djokovic.  He has a 10-23 record against the Serb and has lost to him on seven of the nine occasions when they have met at a major, including the Australian Open final earlier this year.  Murray's two wins over Djokovic at a major, though, did come in finals, he defeated the top seed in the final of Rome, and he did have the better spring heading into Paris.

Djokovic, however, will not be thinking about those key times when Murray has defeated him or that the Scot had the better spring.  He already knows he has gotten far more success out of their rivalry than the second seed.  He is aware that he is the better player and that he has less to prove.  The issue for Djokovic is that this title means more to him than it does Murray.  A win on Sunday would mean more than simply adding another major title to his Grand Slam tally.  It would mean completing the career Grand Slam and moving into more rarefied air.  It gets harder and harder to accomplish that feat with each passing season, and Djokovic has shown he is feeling that pressure.  He has been edgy throughout the spring and this tournament, and if he does not find a way to treat this match like any other major singles final, the biggest obstacle to his reigning victorious in Paris could be himself.

For sure, all of the ingredients are there for this to be a phenomenal ending to 2016 Roland Garros.  Given the intangibles surrounding this specific match, it becomes even more difficult to call.  Murray is not the type of player to give away anything, and as sharp as he has looked through the last few rounds, he could certainly cause the upset.  Given his position to swing away freely, his odds of victory are only heightened.  But at the end of the day, Djokovic is the better player.  That is why he has thus far put together the more successful career.  If he can temper his emotions and tame the demons from his past, this is his match to win.  It should be close.  It will not be easy.  But the odds are that the fourth time is the charm and Djokovic finally comes good at Roland Garros.