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Previewing Djokovic vs. Federer in the US Open Men's Final

Sep 13th 2015

Novak Djokovic will battle Roger Federer for the 2015 US Open title.  As finals go, they do not come much bigger than this.  Djokovic and Federer are the top two players in the world, and together they account for one of the greatest rivalries in the sport.  All told, one could not envision a more fitting capstone to the 2015 Grand Slam season.

There will certainly be few, if any, secrets between Djokovic and Federer when they take to the court on Sunday.  They have met 41 times in the past, and as evidenced by the 21-20 split in Federer's favor, there is little to choose between the two.  They have already met five times in 2015, with Djokovic having won three of the five, but it is Federer who has defeated Djokovic in two of the three matches that have taken place on outdoor hard courts.  They have also met five times at the US Open, with Federer leading that series 3-2.  That said, Djokovic has won the last two encounters against Federer at this venue, but both of those victories have come in five sets.  Suffice it to say, this latest duel is apt to come down to just a few key points.

Roger Federer

Federer can increase his odds of winning the key points by having a good serving day.  He has barely been broken at all through this fortnight, and he will need to carry that form into Sunday's match against the best returner in the game.  Also, as he has done all tournament, he must look to continually be the aggressor.  He still has great foot speed and plays exceptional defense, but grinding it out against Djokovic is a formula for defeat for the Swiss.  Instead, he wants to control the rallies and look to move forward.  It was that style of play that earned him a victory over the Serb a few weeks ago in Cincinnati, and there is no reason it should not work on this similar surface.  Lastly, Federer will want to be sure to mix in the short slice off his backhand to draw Djokovic in and give him different looks.  Feliciano Lopez enjoyed some success with that shot against the top seed earlier in this tournament, and no doubt Federer could do the same.

As for Djokovic, there are specific aspects of his game that need to be clicking to better his chances of earning the win on Sunday.  First, like Federer, he wants to be putting in a high percentage of first serves.  He cannot allow Federer's new sneak attack to get under his skin, and he does not want to give Federer too many looks at a second serve that the Swiss will not hesitate to attempt to swat away for a clean winner.  To some extent, it is even more important for Djokovic to start out serving well, since he is more prone to getting out of his rhythm on that stroke and donating double faults.  In addition to the serving side of his game, it is imperative that the Serb be returning well too.  He has to make headway on Federer's service games to not only make the Swiss feel pressure but to take some of the pressure off his own service games.  And finally, the top seed cannot fall into the trap of relying too much on his defense.  It is better than Federer's, but allowing Federer to dictate too many of the points could easily result in a losing proposition for the current No. 1.

While it will be entertaining as always to see how these two legends of the game match strength against strength and probe to exploit weaknesses, however, the crux of this match rests on which man displays nerves of steel on the big points.  On the one hand, it is easy to point to Federer as the player more prepared to come up with the goods when it matters most.  He is the lower-ranked player, and since his season has not been as good as the Serb's, he is the slight underdog.  Yet, although he is the slight underdog, he is the man who has played a better brand of tennis to get to this point.  He came into the US Open off a victory over Djokovic in Cincinnati, he knows that Djokovic has only managed to secure one title at this venue in spite of so many deep runs in New York, and Federer is looking to add to his legacy rather than chasing down another player.

Novak Djokovic

Of course, the fact that Federer is looking to add to his legacy is one factor that Djokovic knows may help him on Sunday.  Federer has been looking for that 18th major for a little while now, and the pressure of trying to bag it could negatively affect Federer's game.  Furthermore, Djokovic will remember that it was the Swiss who was playing better coming into the final of Wimbledon this summer, but Djokovic was able to raise the level of his own game to defeat Federer and win his third title there.  Additionally, the best-of-five format does work in Djokovic's favor.  At this stage in their careers, the Serb has a little more consistency and ability to grind it out than Federer.  It showed in the final of Wimbledon, where they split two tiebreak sets before Djokovic was able to pull away and win in four.  As long as he does not allow himself to get into a deep hole, Djokovic has to like his chances of coming out the victor if the match goes long.

When all is said and done, both competitors have reasons to believe they are going to be crowned the champion and reasons to fear the opposition.  Their strengths, weaknesses, and the numbers all suggest that this is a 50-50 match.  The slight edge arguably has to go to Djokovic.  He has been so good all season at the marquee events and majors.  He has won two Grand Slams already this year and came up only one match shy of taking a third.  Just do not be surprised if Roger Federer continues to turn back the clock to upset the top seed to grab that elusive 18th singles major.