One women’s quarterfinal on Wednesday features two top-five women, while the other features two first-time Australian Open quarterfinalists.  But the second matchup could be the more intriguing of the two.

Vaulting the Pole: Victoria Azarenka vs. Agnieszka Radwanska

The highest-profile quarterfinal is the match featuring the No. 2 and No. 5 seeds.  Both women have performed admirably to live up to their respective seeds.  Azarenka will be keen to continue living up to her seeding to advance to the semifinals, while Radwanska will look to add to the string of upsets at this tournament to book her own place in the final four.

But if Radwanska hopes to accomplish such a feat, she is definitely going to have her work cut out for her. The Pole has a dismal head-to-head record against the Belarusian, with just four wins against 12 losses.  Three of Radwanska’s victories came early in their careers, and it has been slim pickings for her ever since.  She has grabbed just one victory against Azarenka in the last four seasons, and in more recent times, she has struggled just to win games, let alone sets and matches.

Another disheartening component in her lopsided head-to-head against Azarenka is that Radwanska’s losses have little to do with her having the proverbial bad day at the office or choking away any leads.  It is strictly a bad matchup for her.  Radwanska’s defensive skills, variety, and ability to find seemingly impossible angles have served her well over the course of her career. As a general rule, though, they are not enough to notch a win over Azarenka.

Part of the reason why Radwanska’s game does not bother Azarenka is that, outside of her serve, Azarenka does not have a weakness for Radwanska to exploit with her bag of tricks.  Additionally, in more recent months, Azarenka is showing herself to be more than just a basher from the baseline.  She is using more variety from the back of the court, and she is steadily improving her transitional game and volleys.  This latter development could spell trouble for Radwanska.  She often lacks the firepower to keep her opposition pinned behind the baseline, so Azarenka should have plenty of opportunities to move forward.

Perhaps the only intangible in this encounter concerns how each will mentally cope with this match.  Radwanska has never been beyond the quarterfinals at this event, or at any major except Wimbledon.  She knows that Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova – two players who can hit her off the court – have already been eliminated.  Radwanska is also aware that she would be the favorite in her semifinal match, no matter whether her opponent is Dominika Cibulkova or Simona Halep. It could be the kind of perfect storm that does not come along all that often. 

Of course, Azarenka is also looking at a similar kind of opportunity, and unlike Radwanska, she knows what it takes to win a major.  Perhaps the only negative that might creep into Azarenka’s mind would be the rash of upsets on the women’s side at this tournament.  She has thus far managed to avoid the carnage that has claimed so many of the higher seeds, but she might wonder if she is destined to be its next victim.

In the end, assuming that Azarenka can remain mentally solid as a rock and play her game, she should avoid becoming an upset victim.  Barring Radwanska putting on a very special performance, she is unlikely to trouble Azarenka enough to halt the Belarusian’s progress towards pulling off the three-peat in Melbourne.

Full of Surprises: Simona Halep Versus Dominika Cibulkova

If anybody picked this quarterfinal to happen when filling out their bracket, they need to go out and buy a lottery ticket.  Few had Simona Halep squaring off against Dominika Cibulkova for a place in the Australian Open semifinals.  Yet these two first-time quarterfinalists Down Under have not made it this far by accident.  They have played some brave and inspiring tennis to earn a berth in the quarterfinals, and they will be looking to do so again in an effort to go at least one step further.

Who is the most likely to advance that one step further remains a mystery because there is little to choose between the two.  Their head-to-head stands at 2-1 in favor of Cibulkova, but the last two encounters have been tight affairs.  Just how hard Halep can be to put away can be seen in the lone match she won against Cibulkova, in which she lost the opening set 0-6.  Naturally, the Romanian will be keen to avoid such a slow start in their upcoming contest.

Assuming that Halep and Cibulkova can carry over the form that they exhibited at the conclusion of their previous matches, neither one should get off to a slow start. In the event that they do start well, it will be difficult to discern which one will get their nose out front first.  Both women play an aggressive baseline game. 

Cibulkova will hold the edge in terms of hitting through the court, for she has more pop on her groundstrokes.  But, the Slovak, who has never been ranked as high as Halep, nor won as many titles, tends to be streaky.  If Halep, the more consistent of the two, can weather the peaks and exploit the valleys in Cibulkova’s game, she has a good look at advancing to the final four.  It will come down to who executes their game best.

The execution of their game plans should be most affected by how each handles the gravity of the situation.  Here again, the jury is out as to who will step up to the challenge.  Cibulkova has been to a Grand Slam semifinal, thanks to her run at Roland Garros in 2009, as well as multiple Grand Slam quarterfinals.  Halep is breaking new ground in Melbourne with her first major quarterfinal.  One can also not discount Cibulkova’s history of getting tight.  In her previous round, she very nearly blew a 5-0 lead against Maria Sharapova in the second set, and the Slovak has choked away other big leads in the past.  If Halep can just remain steady, there is a decent chance that Cibulkova will take herself out of the match with an abundance of unforced errors.

Essentially, there is no way to fully know what to expect in a match with two players who are not regulars at this stage of a slam.  It may be quite entertaining, even if the tennis is not the prettiest.  This is a huge opportunity for both women.  Both have had a fantastic tournament, and for one, the fairytale run will continue.