Stan Wawrinka versus Rafael Nadal

The men's championship match has arrived, which means just two players remain.  On one side of the net, not surprisingly, is Rafael Nadal.  He is a man that many consider to be the greatest clay-court player in the history of the game and someone most from the outset considered a favorite to win this title.  On the opposite side of the net is Stan Wawrinka.  Few, if any, were looking at him as someone who would take the championship this year, and yet, all the same, it should come as no surprise that he has found his way here.  Both men have produced some superb displays of tennis to reach this juncture, but in the end, only one can walk away with the title.  Will it be Nadal who secures an incredible tenth Roland Garros crown or will Stan Wawrinka play spoiler to earn his fourth major singles title?

It is easy to say hands-down Nadal is going to win this match, but regular fans know that only a fool would dismiss Wawrinka's chances.  The third seed has developed a nice, all-around game that sports plenty of variety.  The improvements he has made to his movement not only have helped his defensive skills to prolong points but have aided him in putting himself in a better position to tee off on the ball.  He possesses a booming serve as well as exceptional feel at the net.  His bread-and-butter though is his blistering ground game.  When firing on all cylinders, he is a difficult man to hang with.  He can generate winners from either wing, from anywhere in the court to anywhere in the opposite court.  If in the zone, he can blitz anyone off the court, as evidenced by the way he handily dismissed both Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic on his way to winning this title in 2015, and he will be looking to do the same to Nadal on Sunday.

Of course, Nadal has shown that it is near-impossible for anyone to hit him off a court, and even more so here on the red clay of Paris, what Dominic Thiem has termed Nadal's “living room.”  Not only are his defensive skills second to none, but his ability to turn that defense into offense is legendary.  Nadal is not all about the defense, however.  He is known for his topspin forehand, and once he gets a decent look at one, it is usually good night for his opponents.  He is also able to make inroads with his flatter backhand, which he has been taking up the line to great effect this event.  Furthermore, the Spaniard has made a concerted effort to beef up his own game, including on serve.  He has the lefty advantage on serve as well, a stroke that is particularly effective against players with a one-handed backhand like Wawrinka.  If Nadal can routinely hit the swinger out wide and play with the same level of aggression as he has these last two weeks, then it is going to be a long day for the third seed.

Executing one's game requires confidence and the belief that it is enough to get the job done, and in that aspect of this match-up, it is once again natural to assume that Nadal has the clear edge.  There is no question that he should hardly be lacking in confidence.  He has won fourteen major titles, nine of which have come here in the French capital.  He has enjoyed a great resurgence thus far in 2017, and his play leading up to Roland Garros was all but impeccable.  He has dominated the Swiss in their head-to-head 15-3, and he has yet to lose a set this tournament.  It is difficult to imagine any player not liking their chances under those circumstances.

Yet, despite not having near the same level of success as the Spaniard, Wawrinka is unlikely to enter this match lacking in self-belief.  He loves coming in under the radar.  That is where he was when he won his first three slams, and he believes he can do so here.  He is also a big-match player.  He is 3-0 in Grand Slam finals, and in each of those victories, his opponent was ranked Number 1 at the time.  And as far as his rivalry with Nadal goes, Wawrinka is likely to throw most of that out the window.  He became a different player in 2014 with that first major win, and in those three years since, he has gone 3-3 with the fourth seed, including a win over Nadal on the clay of Rome.  And lastly, for better or possibly for worse, Wawrinka enters this match knowing that more often than not, he is apt to be the one determining what happens on the court.  He sent an early message to Murray in their semifinal and will be looking to do the same to Nadal that he is going to be the player to light up the stat sheet and take responsibility for dictating play and putting the match on his racquet, not his opponent's.

So, the stage is set, and with any luck, this will evolve into a classic final.  Undoubtedly, all the ingredients are there for this to be something special, but whether or not that pans out will hinge primarily on the Swiss.  Unlike Nadal, he is the streaky player, and there may be some question as to whether he has sufficiently recovered from his five-hour marathon against Murray.  But if he has, and if he has his game in working order, he is in with more than a decent look at garnering the upset.  Even so, Nadal remains the obvious favorite.  He has been since April when he won Monte-Carlo, and it would be a stunner if he were to falter at this last hurdle.  He may be made to work for it, but expect Nadal to make history once again by reigning supreme at Roland Garros for the tenth time in his illustrious career.