Two key women’s matches to watch on Day 3 reveal two different forms of pressure.

Great Expectations: Eugenie Bouchard vs. Virginie Razzano

The sport of tennis has increasingly seen what is termed the “graying of the field” as aging players find more success.  Despite this trend, however, fans and analysts alike are always looking for the next big thing.  There are a handful of candidates from each tour that fit this bill, and when it comes to the WTA, Eugenie Bouchard is one of them.

The Canadian has already shown plenty of promise in her young career.  With a singles ranking of No. 31, she is the highest-ranked teenager in the WTA.  She was able to quickly climb the rankings thanks in no small part to her powerful game, which was on full display last year in Cincinnati as she pushed Serena Williams to three sets.  Additionally, Bouchard qualified for three of the four majors in 2013 and reached the third round of Wimbledon in her debut there.  She is eager to build on that success and continue her ascent up the rankings, like American prodigy Sloane Stephens.

A veteran who will be hopeful of halting the Canadian’s progress is Frenchwoman Virginie Razzano.  Razzano knows her way around the tennis court, able to grind with the best of them but, in spite of her small stature, also able to dictate her share of the rallies.  She is best known for causing one of the greatest upsets in Grand Slam history with her defeat of Serena Williams in the opening round of the French Open in 2012, the only time that Williams has ever lost in the first round of a major.  If Razzano was able to flip the switch then, there is always the possibility that she could do the same on Wednesday at the Australian Open.

Razzano being able to flip that switch does not look particularly promising based on her current form coming into the year’s first major, though.  Her only warm-up event was Sydney, where she lost in the first round of qualifying to Yaroslava Shvedova.  On the other hand, Bouchard did not fare any better and lost her opening match to Bethanie Mattek-Sands in the Sydney main draw.  These two have never played before, so if Razzano is able to keep Bouchard off balance early, that will increase her odds of pulling off the upset. 

The other big factor in deciding the outcome of this match will be how well each woman copes with expectations.  With the upsets that occurred on Monday, Kirsten Flipkens has become the highest seed in this section of the first quarter.  Thus, the winner of Bouchard vs. Razzano has a very realistic look at making her first Australian Open quarterfinal, where she will most likely face Serena Williams.  It is a tantalizing opportunity, but both women will need to be careful to avoid looking too far ahead and losing focus on the match at hand.

With so many intangibles surrounding this match, it is difficult to pick a clear favorite.  Theoretically, the edge should go the Canadian, but it will be intriguing to see whether it is youth or experience that ultimately manages the intangibles better.  It could prove to be another moment of glory for a veteran soon to hang up the racquet, or another pivotal stepping stone in the career of a promising young talent. 

Pins and Needles: Samantha Stosur vs. Tsvetana Pironkova

As is the case at any major, the home crowd is always eager to get behind one of its own.  On Wednesday, the Australians will have another chance to do just that as they look to cheer on Samatha Stosur in the hopes that she is able to book a place in the third round.

There are a number of reasons to feel optimistic about the Australian’s odds of advancing another round.  First and foremost, she can look to control the majority of the points.  Stosur hits bigger than her Bulgarian opponent off both wings, particularly on the forehand side.  She is also considered to possess one of the best serves on the WTA, and arguably the best kick serve of anyone in the field.  Such a weapon could earn her cheap points when she needs them most.  Furthermore, the Australian has more big-match experience than Pironkova does.  Not only has she been to the finals of Roland Garros, but she became a Grand Slam Champion when she won the US Open in 2011.  And finally, as a native Australian, it is safe to assume that Stosur is far more accustomed to the brutally hot conditions, which could prove crucial if the match goes the distance.

But Stosur is going to need as many factors as she can muster working in her favor, because Pironkova is by no means a pushover.  The Bulgarian may be ranked forty places lower than Stosur, but she is unlikely to be intimidated.  Pironkova is no stranger to causing upsets at the slams.  At Wimbledon especially, she has developed a reputation as a dangerous floater, defeating the likes of Venus Williams, Vera Zvonareva, and Marion Bartoli at the All England Club en route to making the second week of that major in three of the last four years.  She also comes into this year’s Australian Open on the back of winning her maiden WTA title in Sydney.  To secure that tournament victory she had to come through qualifying and then defeat Sara Errani, Petra Kvitova, and Angelique Kerber in succession, which is no easy task.  Her confidence must be at an all-time high.

Pironkova will need to be feeling confident in order to put her head-to-head record against Stosur out of mind.  She has yet to beat the Australian, and all of her losses have come in straight sets.  If ever there was a time for her to turn it around, however, it would be here.  As talented as Stosur is, she has historically cracked under the pressure of playing in front of her native crowd Down Under.  In her entire career, she has reached the second week of her home major only twice.  And the nerves that she exhibited in her opening match against Klara Zakopalova did not suggest that she is any closer to reversing this trend.  She will need to continue to work on that aspect of her game if she hopes to get by Pironkova and potentially go deeper.

How well she is able to put a cap on her nerves will ultimately be what makes or breaks Stosur in this contest.  Between her experience, bigger game, home crowd support, and dominant head-to-head record against Pironkova, she should be the clear favorite in this match.  In fact, if she were still in Top-10 form and playing at any other venue, she would be.  But this is Melbourne, a location that has hindered more than helped Stosur through the years.  Fans should prepare to be on the edge of their seats, because this match is likely to be a rollercoaster ride.